Taking a Lap Around The Pen

The 2012 Mets are a bit of an enigma right now. Are they rebuilding? Are they trying to compete? Are they just treading water? One area I'm not terribly concerned with is the bullpen. Sure we don't have a closer and the most steady arm is over 37 years old... I think they'll be fine.

Current Depth Chart:

1. Bobby Parnell (R)
2. Manny Acosta (R)
3. Tim Byrdak (L)
4. Taylor Buchholz (R) [Non-Tender Possibility]
5. Pedro Beato (R)
6. D.J. Carrasco (R)
7. Daniel Herrera (L)
8. Josh Stinson (R)
9. Pat Misch (L)

What are we missing? Assuming that Byrdak and Herrera are both fine for 2012... a closer. The 8th inning can fall to a mix of Parnell, Acosta and Byrdak (Pressure lefties) and the Mets wouldn't be bad off. Carrasco can continue to be wonderfully mediocre and if he can't... Misch can be the long reliever (Or Gee, Schwinden, or Cohoon) and step in. That still leaves the Mets 1 closer shy of a bullpen.

And The Candidates Are:

1. Heath Bell (34) - We all remember the promise of Heath Bell when he WAS a Met. He wasn't yet a star. Seems all he needed was a little West Coast mellow to take his game to the next level. As a Padre he's been ELITE. There are two things working against Bell's contract: 1) He's 34 and 2) He's been protected by Petco. Even with all of that he's likely to be looking for $14 Million per year or more... and 3+ years. I can't see that happening.
   
2. Francisco Rodriguez (30) - Let's all groan at the idea of bringing Frankie back. Now let's grow up and realize that he wasn't BAD when not abusing the elderly and being injured. So... We re-hash a little K-Rod in the bullpen. Now... I don't think he's going to sniff $12 Million but I do think he'll be trying for 3+ years. I think a realistic offer would be 3 years and $28 Million (TOTAL). Would he even WANT to come back to Queens? I don't know.
   
3. Francisco Cordero (37) - Cordero has been pretty sweet for the Reds. At 37 and with a pretty good bullpen, I think the Reds are likely to allow him to walk. (Maybe not?) If Cordero is looking for a contract at 37 he'll be hard pressed to get over 2 years. I think 2 years at $10 Million per year is not a bad deal for a closer who has been as remarkably steady as Cordero has. Now that I've said that we'll watch him implode.
4. Ryan Madson (31) - At 31 he's still among the younger closers and I happen to think in terms of skill he's probably among the most talented. Prior to Phillies poorly budgeted signing of Jonathan Papelbon, I just have to worry over the projected price of what Madson would be. I also have this lingering doubt that Madson is a setup man and NOT a closer. His 2011 success aside, I have watched Ryan be thrust into the closer role a few times and fail. Phillies were talking 4 years and $44 Million. I don't think he'll get that but I think 3 years and $27 Million should be easy.
   
5. Frank Francisco (32) - Francisco is never the guy you WANT to have as your closer. Teams always seem to look at Frank as the ideal 8th inning guy, who gets THRUST into closing situations and can handle himself. I look at his numbers and I see him as the poor man's Francisco Cordero. He's got pretty good stats (Not great) but gets the job done. He'll likely be shooting for 3 years and $20 Million which isn't too bad for a pitcher like this.
   
6. Matt Capps (28) - Capps is one of the interesting names on this list. For one thing... he's only 28 and has 4 years before I typically worry about arms declining. For another he's been a successful closer. His 2011 will likely keep his overall value pretty reasonable but I do think he'll earn over $6 Million a year and seek a contract 2-3 years in length. Given his age, durability and success... he'll likely get it. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets had him on the radar.
   
7. Joe Nathan (37) -Now... I think this WILL be Alderson's #1 target... BUT I also think there will need to be a safety net. He's 37 and coming off a BAD season (after being hurt for a long time). It kinda reminds me of the J.J. Putz situation but hopefully we'd get the second year back numbers. At 37 and coming off a bad year he's only going to want/get a 1 year deal and even inflating the price to match his former stuff... $8 Million? I can live with that.
   
8. Jonathan Broxton (28) - Allow me to introduce the safety net that EVERYONE wants. Broxton needs a change of scenery and that's fine. I'd LOVE to get he and another risky closer a shot in Queens... I really would. I simply think that because he's 28 and has a REAL upside, if he can regain his footing. He will want a 1 year deal with a player option. He will get over $6 Million from some team. I don't think the Mets would be willing to pay that for an insurance policy.
   
9. Jon Rauch (33) - Now... the safety net I think the Mets COULD afford. You can give a guy like Jon Rauch multiple years because at best... he's a closer and at worst... he's a setup guy. ALSO... if Chris Young and Jon Rauch are on the same team we'd have the tallest pitching staff in the majors. 2 years and $10-12 Million. Whether he's our closer or our setup guy/insurance policy I think I'm willing to do that.

Then The Phillies Ruin EVERYTHING:

Jonathan Papelbon (31) - Signs a 4 year $50 Million deal that throws all of my numerology out of whack. Sure... it adds Ryan Madson into the mix but it also pumps up closer values a good bit. Bell (Who would still be a better signing then Papelbon should get more annual money than Jonathan (at 34 I don't know about years). The deal is bad for the Phillies and I'm happy they made it on one hand but on the other... it adds $1-4 Million to each one of my projected yearly salaries.