2/4/14

Mack’s Morning Report – 2-3-14 – Spring Training Stats, Nate Schierholtz, Dave Hudgens



Coming Up –

            11am – Christopher Soto – Mack’s Mets #25 Prospect

              2pm - The LTJ Editorial: “Wilmer Flores, the Shortstop?”

              5pm - Mack Ade - Didn’t I Say I Would Never Talk About This Guy Again?


Joseph Anthony Olivio‎ -

45 years ago our Mets finished the 1968 season in 10th place then came Spring Training 1969 and our Mets were picked to finish 10th again. Mets fans that Spring had little hope their beloved Mets would be any better in the 1969 season. But this is baseball with a 162 game season to play Amazing things can happen and in 1969 it did 100-62 1st place then World Series Champs. Hope is baseball and hearts have hope every season. In 2014 we again have Hope.


Well, I think it’s time to start lining up the flow charts by position that the Mets will be working with during spring training.

This is also the time of year that I add the box on the right had side for all the pitchers that will be trying to win out one of the rotation spots out of camp (yeah, I’m a little early but how many more times can I talk about Stephen Friggin Drew?).

I’ve aligned the position battles as follows (feel free to suggest me moving some of these players around to other positions):

1B – Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Wilmer Flores, Josh Satin
2B – Daniel Murphy, Eric Campbell, Anthony Seratelli
SS – Ruben Tejada, Omar Quintanilla, Wilfredo Tovar
3B – David Wright, Zack Lutz
C – Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Recker, Taylor Teagarden, Juan Centeno
LF – Eric Young Jr., Chris Young
CF  - Juan Lagares, Matt den Dekker
RF – Curtis Granderson, Anthony Brown

I probably could use a few suggestions where to place the outfielders . I’m not sure at this point where the Young boys are slotted in.

Once we all agree on this, I’ll add it to the right side of page one and we’ll keep daily stats once spring training opens.

     (note to other blogs… come on guys… let me have this one please…)

Now on the relief pitchers, which are even harder:

My potential list pf pitchers that have a chance to stick on opening would be:

RP – Bobby Parnell, Vic Black, Josh Edgin, Jeurys Familia, Gonzalez Germen, Erik Goeddel, Ryan Reid, Scott Rice, Carlos Torres, and Jeff Walters (guys like Jack Leathersich would be 40-man add ons later in the season).

You agree?

Let me know so I can set up the work sheets.



Nate Schierholtz -

After Nate Schierholtz was non-tendered by the Phillies after the 2012 season, the boss man, Dave Cameron, implored some team to give Schierholtz some regular playing time. The Cubs obliged by signing Schierholtz to a one-year deal for $2.25 million and giving him 503 PA. And the Cubs were rewarded with Schierholtz producing 1.4 WAR for them. Schierholtz hit for power like he never has before. His ISO prior to last season was just .139, but his ISO was .219 last year. The move to Wrigley had to have helped, or, rather, the move away from San Francisco had to have helped. Wrigley’s HR as L park factor last year was average at 100, but San Francisco’s HR as L park factor was the lowest in the league at 85. His average home run and fly ball distance last year was right in line with where it was from 2009-2011 (it dipped in 2012), but in Wrigley that distance led to 21 home runs whereas he only hit 23 home runs in 1,316 plate appearances as a Giant. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-cubs-outfield/



Dave Hudgens on hitting -  

“We want hitters to look for their strength, especially early in the count, from the first pitch to the fifth pitch, to the sixth pitch, when we’re in hitters counts we want to be aggressive on our pitch. I mean, obviously, I’d rather see a double in the gap with two guys on than a walk. But, there’s sometimes during the game, David Wright‘s not going to get his pitch. I would rather him take the walk as opposed to swing at a marginal pitch and hit into a double play.”

MackI understand what he’s saying here, but I don’t agree that every member of the lineup should address the pitcher this way.
I was a leadoff hitter. My job was two-fold. The secondary one was, if I made out, to go back to the dugout and let the rest of the guys know what was coming down the pipe, but my main goal was the get on base under any condition.

I happen to think that hitters with exceptional power shouldn’t be worried about how many walks you get. Then, all you wind up with is Lucas Duda.

I need three guys in my lineup hitting .250 with 500 at-bats. That’s 125 hits. If these guy are true power hitters, half of these hits will be extra-base ones, giving me 62.5 per player. That’s 62 doubles, triples, and home runs times three players. Throw in some walks and sacrifice flies and I have something to build on, especially if the guys hitting before me are following what Hudgens is trying to sell here.


Anonymous asked –

                       Is there any chance Danny Muno can play shortstop?

Mack There is a chance that any baseball player that has already successfully reached at least the AAA level could also play a multiple amount of other positions at a level far better than you or I could, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.

And, you can’t do this kind of experimentation without at least one solid year of playing that ‘new’ position at a level below the major league level.

The Mets best defensive shortstop in the organization has been the same one for three years… Wilfredo Tovar. He also hit .263 for Binghamton last year and .270 for St. Lucie/Binghamton combined in 2012.

I just don’t understand why we never read much about him. He was a late addition to the Queens roster last season and I’d much rather see him play the entire 2014 season in AAA-Las Vegas at SS.


He will turn 23 in August.

15 comments:

TP said...

Mack,
Tovar is a nice player, and everyone loves his glove. It looks like he just needs a year in AAA to season his bat. Let him play in Vegas and see where he stands in Sept.

All this talk about Flores at SS is plain nuts. Sure, let him take some reps, it certainly doesn't hurt to see how this training impacted his range. And, if they find a spot for him on the 25 man roster, and he is "serviceable" at SS in ST, he certainly would bring more as a backup than Q. However, he needs to hit daily, so using him as a bench player in the bigs doesn't make sense if he can't play at least 5 of 7 games. I also don't think it serves his development at this time to play him all over the field. He'd be better served playing one position daily in AAA (probably 2B). I'm not sure where Muno fits in with Tovar at SS and Wilmer at 2B in Vegas, but these are good problems to have.

Mack Ade said...

We all remember how many games this team has lost in the past because of dumb, stupid mishaps in the field.

Trust me... they will happen with Flores on short.

tommyb said...

my take on Flores is he could, at SS, add 50 runs of production over a Tejada...from May 1 until his call up, Flores showed a lot of extra base pop, nearly an RBI per game, and hit .340...all at a very young age for AAA.

I don't see why he could not do .280 - .290, 35 doubles, and 10-15 HR playing almost every day. If he did add a bit of quickness at the fat farm, he could be a "serviceable" SS as he has a good arm...and he could be defensively substituted for late in games. So even though 1B may be his ultimate spot with Mets, that depends on the other guys competing for 1B too...so let's say his defense costs them 20 runs over Tejada - that could be a plus 30. I'd give him some real looks at SS this spring - if the defense just does not cut it, experiment over.

Muno at SS could be a possibility, but less experienced that Flores, bat not (yet) as good as Wilmer's, although Danny was great with the stick from June on last year, and defensively he may be no better than Wilmer at SS - so Muno for SS, much less for early 2014, is extremely unlikely.

But as they say - that is what spring training is for. Let's see what shakes out. if Gammons is right and Drew does come to Mets, all the above is pointless speculation.

Likewise, Leathersich is fascinating, but it is unlikely (short of a huge control improvement) he makes the team out of spring training...Warmer weather helps with control. No rush there.

Anonymous said...

@TP

I actually disagree that Tovar needs a season in AAA.

His bat is not going to develop any further. Unfortunately he is a mediocre hitter who will not slash any higher than .240/.320/.350.

Luckily though his defensive prowess is excellent enough to at least hold a MLB bench spot.

tommyb said...

I'd like to see a Tovar on the bench. I am frankly tired of decades of Mets' substandard hitting and would prefer an offensive player, defensive warts and all. How would you guys rate say Jeter defensively in his prime as a SS vs. Flores? I still think Flores, based on last year, may be poised to be an above average major league offensive position player, even at first base.

Mack, what do you think of Jayce Boyd? I looked yesterday and saw the team stopped him from throwing June 29, knowing he'd need surgery. To that point, he had 21 doubles, 2 triples, 7 HR, and a .440 on base % in 295 official at bats, with very low K's, and was hitting .365. After that, likely due to the shoulder, he hit .265 the rest of the way. Presumably the off-season surgery corrected his issue. Could he be another Olerud in the making?

Anonymous said...

@Tommyb

Muno is FAR superior to Flores defensively both at SS AND at 2B.

Also surprisingly his career minor League OBP is higher than Flores.

Clearly Flores is the better prospect and has a far higher ceiling due to his power potential but CURRENTLY TODAY....Muno has a higher floor than Flores.

Anonymous said...

In his prime, Jeter had excellent range thanks to his 30 SB speed, a ridiculously strong arm, and quick reactions.

The two players are polar opposites. Jeter in his prime was one of the best overall players in baseball. He was a 4 1/2 tool player (Not enough power for the 5th tool)

Flores is a guy who can hit and has a strong arm with some pop but is slow and has trouble fielding. He's a 2 1/2 tool player AT BEST.

tommyb said...

Thanks on the comparison, having not seen Muno. Muno does have some power too - in his last 75 games, he had 277 official at bats, which included 15 doubles, a triple, and 8 HR.

It will be extremely interesting to see if he can keep that level of power up in 2014. I am also intrigued that in the same 75 games, as a lead off guy with Puello largely missing and Dykstra badly slumping, he still scored 59 runs and drove in 42. Tovar likely would not produce that much if he played 162 games.

bill metsiac7. said...

Re: the pen, you left out Farnsworth. I'm sure he wasn't signed without being given a shot at a ML job in ST.

I wonder why we haven't seen K-Rod's name mentioned anywhere. Even with his baggage he's far better than Farnsworth, and he's got to be desperate enough to take a MnL deal.

Mack Ade said...

Tommy -

Boyd is a pure gap hitter, who never slowed down either in Savannah or St. Lucie. He also batted up next to Nimmo and Plawecki which made for quite a 2-3-4 in Savannah.

Let's hope the operation went well. He would have been ready for Binghamton, but now I expect they will start him off in Lucy first for at least a month or two.

As I have said in the past, and he told me on my interview after the first week of last season, he came to Savannah bulked up with 15 more pounds of muscle, so what you saw last year was the 'pumped up' version.

Don't look for any more HR power here.

Hobie said...

It may have felt like 10th, but in 1968 we finished ninth, one game ahead of the Astros. Portent of things to come?

TP said...

@ C Soto,
You may well be right about Tovar's offensive development, but I'm not sure he has yet proven he can slash your figures at the MLB level. If he can, he would be the SS favorite over Tejada and can bat 8th. Personally, I'd need to see him show some improvement in Vegas over his Binghamton numbers.

Anonymous said...

Those figures would be peaks. And even then I don't think he would be a favorite over Tejada.

We easily forget that Tejada had back to back seasons of .280+ AVG hitting along with average defensive value getting to 83% of balls in range.

Herb G said...

As I see it, the reps Flores gets at SS are purely to see if he can hold his own there and not be an embarrassment. The Mets need a UT on the bench, one who can at least play 2B & SS, and hopefully 3B too. Right now the only guys in camp who fit that bill, assuming Tejada is the regular at SS, are Quintanilla, Seratelli and Tovar. Q & T gave good glove, but not bat. S is a wild card. But if Flores acquits humself at SS in ST, his bat would win the UT bench job.

In the bull pen, in addition to Farnesworth, (who has a strong shot at making the team) you might add Carreno and Socolovich to the "Leathersich list" of players that would have to be added to the 40 man if they made the team.

As far as the depth chart, my suggestions would be:

1B: Davis, Duda, Satin, Brandon Allen (I don't think we can regard Flores as a legit option at 1B yet)
2B: Murphy, Flores, Satin, Campbell, Seratelli
SS: Tejada, Tover, Quintanilla,
3B: Wright, Flores, Lutz, Satin
C: d'Arnaud, Recker, Teagarden, Centeno
LF: Granderson, E. Young,
CF: Lagares, C. Young, den Dekker, Nieuwenhuis
RF: C. Young, Andrew Brown

Everything I've read, so far, indicates that they see Granderson more as the left fielder, with Chris Young in right. If they haven't found a better option to lead off, however, the outfield could be shaken up, with E. Young starting in LF, moving C. Young to CF and Granderson to right. If both Lagares and EYJ do well in spring training, I wouldn't be surprised to see Collins splitting time between both versions of that outfield at the start of the season.

James Preller said...

I hate Dave Hudgens. Hate the mentality. Hate. It.

On Flores, it would be nice if he could play SS at a Justin Turner level. This group does not believe in giving roster spots to backup shortstops. I don't see that happening. But if Flores can be only "poor" out there, like Turner, then he becomes a guy you can bring North. Backing up 3B when David needs a rest (note to Terry: David needs a rest), when Murhpy needs a rest, maybe even some time at 1B.