I talk
all the time about ‘payroll value’… not what you pay out, but what the
‘non-dead’ money you have on the field during a given year. Last year, that
really rounded out to around $45mil, but let’s look at this team a different
way.
Take Mike Trout. Last year, he was
paid $500K. This year, he will get $1mil, but still be arbitration eligible.
But… what’s his ‘real’ value to your team. In my book, this is a $25mil/yr
player and that’s how you have to evaluate him.
Let’s
move to the Mets.
David Wright,
Bartolo Colon, Curtis Granderson, and Jon Niese are under long term contract. Their 2015 value
is etched in stone and comes in at a combined $54.050mil.
Now… Mike Harvey… forget the $500K he’s
being paid. Easily, he projects as a $15mil arm.
(see where I'm going here?)
There are
two more ‘five figure’ starters on this team, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Conservatively, they
represent a $10mil arm each.
Daniel Murphy
will be
paid at least $7mil in his last arbitration year.
I’m
already up to $96mil+.
Bobby Parnell… Rafael Montero… Dillon Gee… Travis d’Arnaud… Wilmer Flores… as you can see, the
team that will hit the field in 2015 already has a potential value in the
$1250150mil range.
Sure,
they aren’t being paid that yet, but they will be someday.
They’re that
talented.
5 comments:
Hey Mack...that's a lotta future greenbacks. Here's an angle for ya - let's say Thor dominates spring training...would adding him to the opening day team (and the huge gates that would draw) offset the accelerated career salary climb that a mid-June start to his career would avoid? If so, why wait? Each pitcher only has so many bullets in his arsenal, as Jon Niese must be contemplating, and from a purist's sense, you hate to see that squandered by Thor in needless time at AAA.
@Tom
As much as we would love to add Syndergaard right now, we have to remember that he still needs seasoning.
While his fastball and curveball are both MLB ready, his 3rd pitch (currently a change-up) still needs a lot of work.
Mike and I wrote a post on this topic last week, but we haven't had the heart to actually publish it. Too negative, timing off. It's a complex topic is some ways, but in other ways, it's simple. If Matt Harvey returns to form, he's going to want a $200 million contract. So the Mets either become an organization that can retain its talent, or we stay small market, like Tampa Bay and Oakland and KC (which is outspending the Mets this year) and we trade him away about two years before he hits free agency. As a fan, I don't want to see that day. Payroll has to move up, waaaaay up.
Yeah we are gonna be in trouble if this ownership group doesn't change it's ways. Harvey is definitely gonna be gone, especially that Boras is his agent.
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