Coming Up -
10 am - Christopher Soto - MM's Top 25- #11 RHSP Rainy Lara
12 noon - Craig Mitchell -- A Comedians Guide to being a Celebrity Met Fan
2 pm - Mark Mokris - Q and A - Projected AAA/AA Rosters
4 pm -
6 pm - Keaton McKinney, Nick Gordon, Scott Hurst, Trace Loehr
8 pm - A Quick Look - RHP - Erick Fedde - UNLV
Great
news! Josh Lawson, who works for the Kingsport Mets, will join Mack’s Mets
this season and report back to us on the progress of the team throughout the
season. This is the first direct contact we’ve had with Kingsport and I’m very
excited about this. More details to follow before their season begins.
On
Saturday, Matt Harvey threw 20 times at 60 feet. I didn’t expect them to be that
long. I was thinking more in the line of five times underhand at three feet. He
said he felt ‘awesome’ after the session. He will throw three times a week
(Monday, Wednesday, Friday). For those of you that have never pitched, it’s not
the next day that you worry about pain or stiffness. It’s day two, or the next
day you are scheduled to toss. In the case of Friday. It will be how he feels
on Sunday.
The only
issue here is where he rehabs. There’s no hockey team in St. Lucie (and the
sushi is meh), so Harvey wants to be in NYC and travel with the team. Sandy
Alderson hasn’t signed off on that yet and pushed the issue down the road to
the day before camp breaks. Tune back in on March 31st.
Spring Training Games Starters... Game 1: Rafael Montero... Game 2: John Lannon... Game 3: Daisuke Matsuzaka... Game 4: Noah Syndergaard... Game 5: Jon Niese
The
Cleveland Indians signed P Adam Harang… the Los Angeles Angels signed P Brandon Lyon… Pittsburgh
signed C Omir Santos…
Korean
stats last year on P Dana Eveland - 6-14, 5.54 in 32 games for
Hanwha in the Korean major league last season, allowing 190 hits and 65 walks
while striking out 129 in 172 innings
MLBTR - The Mets
offered Drew a salary in the neighborhood of $9.5MM, the same amount Drew made
last year, but Drew rejected it. The Mets remain the team with the most need
for Drew's talents.
Mack – The thing that bothers me the most about
this is everybody told you that me and that loudmouth disc jockey were both
full of shit when we told you that the Mets DID offer Drew a deal. Even Sandy Alderson said it wasn’t true.
Drew is going to have to come to the
realization that there is no other team out there that wants his serviced at
the prices he and his agent have set. The longer this is drawn out, the less
the Mets are going to want to keep going down this road… and now, with the
possibility of other options in Seattle and Los Angeles, all of a sudden the
baseball world is raining shortstops.
My money is still on Drew. He’s the better
player and he fits in, make-up wise, next to David Wright. Plus, all this other
shit is just agent-bull pucky.
For all you Dee Gordon
fans –
After all, a platoon between Dee
Gordon and Justin Turner — or, really,
pick two names from above, with one including possible lefty hitters Dee Gordon
or Chone Figgins — might provide the same production as most of the names on
that list above. The fans project Infante for a .310 wOBA and his defense was
barely above scratch last year. Turner has a lifetime .305 wOBA which might be
improved facing just lefties, and his versatility made him a good non-tender to
watch. Dee Gordon has been atrocious so far, but
a new position and a new role (he’s only been 14% worse than league average
against righties) might work for him. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/do-the-dodgers-have-a-problem-at-second-base/
Mack - Folks, Gordon is not Stephen Drew. Drew is the only shortstop currently on the market that would fit the Mets shortstop hole without forcing it in. He's a perfect fit. There's a good chance it won't happen, but not because of his lack of talent. And, by the way... it isn't Drew that is balking at the Mets offer of one-year at around $9.5mil... it's his agent, and when Scott Boras is your agent, you sign your life away and agree to do what he tells you to do.
As strange as this might continue to sound to you, this is still very early in the process. Spring Training only officially opened yesterday, so hang in here and let the boys (Alderson and Boras) do their China-Japanese island occupation argument thing...
There is going to be a lot written today about Nelson Cruz. Mets writers will tell you that it cost the Orioles less than $2mil/yr than what the Mets paid Chris Young.
You’re also going to read about how much he sucks
defensively, but what you aren’t going to read is any stat for plays in which
bad outfielders simply come up short and don’t attempt to run down a ball hit
in the outer ranges of the position they are playing.
Bad outfielders have learned to let these balls bounce in
front of them, or hit off the wall, which gets them a ‘hit’ stat instead of an
error on the outfielder. If you don’t do this, you then tend to look like Lucas Duda.
Looking like Lucas Duda in right field almost earns you an error before the ball is even hit in your direction.
Chris Young is going to give the Mets excellent defense in
the outfield along with Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, and Matt den Dekker. In fact, the Mets may be in the top five
outfields defensively once the season ends and the numbers are added up.
This alone will probably win more games than
Cruz will for the Orioles.
10 comments:
Great to hear we'll have "Boots on the Ground" in Kingsport. Assuming Mr. Lawson was there last year, perhaps he could give us a retro on Victor Cruzado. Victor was torrid in July playing all 3 OF positions, disappeared the first half of Aug (injured?) and returned as a DH. Same age as Champ Stuart, switch-hitter, nice BB/K ratio... what's up with him?
And nice article on Reuben. I'm rooting for him.
Mack.
I just don't get it. The entire Chris Young situation. As far as I have heard and read, Chris Young was chosen by Alderson for Power, Speed, and Defensive ability.
I have heard those "in-the-know" try to claim that this will be a GREAT pick-up. But I just don't see it. Let's look at Young's history.
His best year hitting for average was in 2010 (.257avg/27hr)
His best year hitting for power was in 2007 (32hr/.237avg)
His past 3 years has shown a steady decline in BOTH power and average.
2011- 20hr/.236 avg
2012- 14hr/.231 avg
2013- 12hr/.200avg
I just don't understand it. There is no way of looking at these stats and projecting anything better. These stats are worse than Ike Davis's numbers over the past 2 years and we all know how the Mets were trying to GET RID of Ike.
The only reason left to argue Young's value is his defense in the outfield. But don't the Mets already have Nieuwenhuis and denDekker that are just as capable defensively? Nieuwenhuis even had a 7hr/.252 avg just 2 years ago before he was hurt last year.
There is no way to look at this in that Young is worth $7million when you have Nieuwenhuis and denDekker in the system already. The value move that Alderson's moves are always explained as, should not ever be mentioned in the same breath as Chris Young.
I just don't get it Mack.
@Bob
Its all sabermetrics!
Chris Young's career Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP- the best stat we have to measure luck) is .274. In 2013 he came in at .237. Regression right? Not so much.
We can realistically say that when a player hits Line Drives, he's squaring the ball up pretty good and making solid contact. Chris Young's career LD% rate is 18.6% but in 2013 he actually came in at 21.6%.
So in summary, C. Young was making excellent contact in 2013 but literally couldn't buy himself a hit last season cause nothing was falling. It's the old adage. "Ya gotta hit 'em where they ain't" and last season Young was unlucky in that aspect.
As for his declining power numbers it's a misleading statement. If you extrapolate 2012 and 2013 out to full seasons, Young's HR's come in at 22 for 2012 and 19 for 2013. Sabermetrically you would look at his ISOlated power rate which measures 2B, 3B, and HR as a percentage of his overall hits. His career mark is .196. In 2012 he came in at .203 and in 2013, .179.
So while yes his power seems down, the overall power production is still there.
Plus there's the whole, He was learning a new position and was distracted argument that was made in Oakland.
Overall while I personally don't like the signing either.....he does present some upside considering he has been a 20 HR/ 20 SB guy on 4 separate occasions with exceptional defense.
Chris Young was a decent gamble by Alderson. The comp to Cruz is nuts, apples to oranges, since Cruz's price tag when Young was signed was $80 mil. Markets change, $%&! happens. I'm fine with this group of 4, and as Mack points out, the D, especially with Lagares in CF, will be outstanding.
To me, the key to Young is whether he has the discipline to adjust his approach to more contact/OBP oriented from simply pulling/power. These guys love the long ball because it translates into $$$. However, Choo did pretty good last year as an OBP guy. Young spent two weeks with Rod Carew this winter focusing on using the entire field. This will play very well at Citifield, and especially because the Mets need a leadoff hitter. It comes down to discipline. If Young cuts down on his Ks, uses the entire field, and raises his BA and OBP, at the expense of some dingers, he'll make a ton of money next year and help the Mets this year. I acutally hope Grandy shortens up a little as well. An OF of the two Youngs sharing the leadoff spot, with Lagares in CF hitting low in the lineup and Grandy hitting 4th is my preference. This is what makes Drew (or an extra Seattle SS) so important. It would allow Lagares to hit 8th and 7th when Tejada plays,, Tejada to spell Drew and Murphy vs. LHP, and the Youngs to share the leadoff spot. If the pitching performs, the Mets can compete in 2014 with that line up.
Chris
The .274 BABIP you mentioned occured when he was playing in Arizona a hitters park.
Last years .237 BABIP occured in a park much more similar to Citifield.
additionally Young's OPS has fallen each of the past 3 years (.331, .311, .280)
Last year he was not good at the plate in any way.
You mentioned that Young was just UNLUCKY because his BABIP was lower than his career. I would counter that arguement that his power and BABIP were both down for the same reason. It wasn't luck, It was the bigger ballpark. Some of those Arizona hrs became outs in Oakland.
Add to this his high Strikeout rate last year (and most years) and this seems like a crazy gamble at $7million.
Remember, there were those writers and fans and I believer members of this commenting community that argued Ike Davis' $3-$4 million salary was not worth keeping. That Davis could actually be let go (not even traded) because the payroll room was more valuable to the team.
Young has not proven to be any more valuable than Davis and yet he is worth double the salary?
I'm sorry, you can fancy-up your arguement with as many statistics as you want.
The truth really boils down to C. Young being an example of Alderson not making a good value judgement. In fact it was a very poor judgement considering Nieuwenhuis, denDekker, and Puello are all able to provide a better value at the position (offense + defense/$$$).
@Bob
We'll see when the season starts.
Again while I don't like the deal.....its only for 1 year so it has no bearing on Puello since he wasn't going to be in the MLB this season anyway until September.
As for Kirk....he may be off the 40 man roster by the end of spring training. And while I like Den Dekker, he hasn't been able to stay healthy.
Bob and Chris -
It's impossible to analyze the Young deal now. I didn't like it (and still don't) because it seemed expensive and rushed. It seemed like it only based on the fact that SOMEONE could be signed to play outfield, that used to hit home runs, for one year. You need more than those reasons.
We're going to have to let this one play out.
My guess is he will fizzle out or wind up injured, Lagares, EYJ, and Grandy will starts, den Delkker will be 4th in, and Puello will come up around June.
(BTW... Puello hit a home run infront of Alderson and Fred on Field 6 yesterday that reached the woods behind the fence... on the fly... unbelievable)
We'll see.
Chris,
This is a big deal really. The arguement has been that Alderson has value to the Mets because he can make better value decisions when it comes to building the roster and running the team.
The Young deal is evidence contrary to that. You mention another way this decision hurts when you mentioned Nieuwenhuis possibly being cut from the 40 man roster. This means a young 20+ yr old that still has potential could be lost to another team for nothing. The difference between Young and Nieuwenhuis should not be $7millioin in value to begin with, add to that losing Niewenhuis completely for nothing makes this worse.
@Bob
That argument is moot as Nieuwenheis's value to the team took a nosedive once Den Dekker reached the majors.
They are both left handed power hitting OF's that K way too much but Den Dekker has more power, better range, and a stronger arm. Nieuwenheis was done for long before the Mets signed Young.
Chris
But that IS the arguement here....... even if denDekker is the choice over Nieuwenhuis. if Nieuwenhuis can be argued as being more valuable than Young, DenDekker would definitely be more valuable. Additionally denDekker and Nieuwenhuis would be more valuable so there would be no reason to pay $7million for Young.
That $7million would have still been available to spend somewhere else now or later.
on the opposite side a missed value opportunity was Cruz.
whether he defense stunk or not. Alderson proved already when he was in Oakland that defense did not have to be a determining factor in value.
his offensive potential was originally assessed in the $14-15 million/yr range. To be able to get him at $8million is a value asset. He was basically bought at clearance prices. If his year plays out anywhere close to his avg or slightly below his career avg. he would be a nice trade asset during the year.
Youngs value already would have dropped well below the $7million he was paid if he was still on the market now.
Heck, an arguement could be made that regardless of Young being on the team or not. That Alderson should have gone after Cruz at the $8-9 million/yr price because of the clearance price value in production and mid-season trade or even a draft pick.
Isnt this the type of thinking that Oakland has been famous for over the past couple years. Acquiring a discounted player by trade or free agency at the beginning of the year and then making them an asset by trading them or turning them into a draft pick?
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