4/14/14

Craig Mitchell -- Decision time for Terry Collins

It’s time for Terry Collins to pick or get off the pot.  Lucas Duda and Ike Davis have been on his roster for
the past 4 years. You would think by now Collins would have an idea of which of the two  he would prefer starting at first base.  Why is he acting like he’s never seen them before or hasn't seen enough to choose?

Spring of 2014 was a bit of a bust for the two lefty power hitters. This was supposed to be the spring where the best man won. But injuries took both Davis and Duda out of consistent action.  Both of them only got a handful of at-bats in the last ten days of spring training. So, rather than making a firm decision, Collins kept both players on the club making a decision that has weakened his opening day roster and limited his options as a result. But let’s step back for a second. Terry pretty much knows these players inside and out....doesn't he?  He should. Ike Davis and Lucas Duda have both been a part of the Mets plans since 2010. Both have had their ups and downs. Both have been inconsistent.

Duda has always been the 2nd choice to play first base. While a natural first baseman Duda has been
relegated to the outfield while Davis has gotten the lion’s share of starts at first base. Davis has the better glove and has always had the inside track. If actions were to speak louder than words Duda has always been on the outside looking in having never distinguished himself with his bat or his glove. Davis looked like an all-star at the beginning of the 2011 season. He was batting .302 with 7 homers and 25 RBI before breaking a bone in his ankle in a freak collision with David Wright in Colorado thus causing him to miss the rest of the season.

Duda showed promise filling in for Ike the rest of 2011 batting .292 with 10 homers and 50 RBI.  Duda was so impressive that the Mets decided to fully convert him into an outfielder.  When 2012 began, Duda was in right field on opening day. Ike was at 1st.  That was just the start of their troubles.

Duda was a disaster in the outfield. With near zero instincts, a poor arm and a massive right field to cover Duda was over-matched on even the most routine fly balls.Davis got off to a horrible start batting .158 in the beginning of June. He was spared a trip to the minors because of a turn-a-round that was nothing short of miraculous. Davis ended 2012 with a terrific 2nd half that had him finish with a .227 average with 32 homers and 90 RBI.  All that promise that Davis had shown was paying off. Davis was finally putting up the power numbers the Mets were banking on and needed so desperately.  Duda finished 2012 batting .239 with 15 homers and 57 rbi.  The best thing that can be said about both seasons is that 2013 looked like possible break out years for both players. Unfortunately, that wasn't even close to being true.
2013 came and Ike had even a worse start to the year than the 2012 debacle. This time there was no big turnaround in June. Come July Ike was in the minors and Lucas Duda was starting at 1st . Duda, being handed a chance to claim the job all to himself  floundered. It wasn't long until the Mets desperate for offense  recalled Josh Satin and started platooning at first. Satin responded by hitting, just not with the power the Mets wanted. When Ike was recalled in August, it was Duda’s turn to be sent down.  Duda only came back up when  Davis pulled an oblique and was lost for the season.   Davis batted .205 with 9 homers and 33 RBI on the year.  Duda batted .223 with 15 homers and 33 RBI.

Going into the winter of 2013, one of  the biggest question marks was around first base.  What were the Mets going to do?  During the winter both players were supposedly on the trading block. Davis was mentioned almost every week. He was being offered to the Pirates, the Rays, the Brewers but what we kept hearing was that the Mets asking price was too high. The Mets were obviously marketing Davis on those 32 homers he hit in 2012.  Duda wasn’t mentioned publicly in any deals that got any press. Davis was the bargaining chip. He was the bait. He was the one with the highest potential.
The fact is both players have potential. But there comes a time when potential just becomes unrealized. You have to cut your losses and consider other options. Going from prospect status to player Davis has always been the one with the highest expectations. He’s shown a wisp of the big numbers the Mets need. Going into spring, it was a bit of a surprise that both Duda and Davis were still with the Mets.  It became clear that spring was going to be a “fight to the death” between the two, with one survivor.  But then…the injuries hit….and here we are.


I have always been a bit critical of Terry Collins. I feel he's a decent game strategiest. but I don’t think he handles young players very well, I also believe he’s not a good judge of talent. If the Mets and Collins thought so much of Davis that they out-priced him in the winter trade market they should have had the conviction to name Ike Davis the starter and give him at least a couple of  months to do or die.This revolving door at 1st base is just hurting the team and by keeping both players on the roster. What it does is keep young players like Ceser Puello or Matt den Dekker in the minors when they could be up with the big club producing.  A choice has to be made. If Collins truly can’t decide between Lucas Duda or Ike Davis by now, then neither one of them is the problem.  Terry Collins is.  As an example, last year coming out of spring training Collins named Colin Cowgill the Mets starting center fielder. That lasted all of one game. By May, Cowgill was gone. Sugarcoat this any way you want, but Collins either has a horrible eye for talent, he can’t make up his mind, or someone else is making the decisions. Collins needs to pick the best all-around player. He needs to pick the one with the highest upside and the one that is clearly the first baseman. All factors point to Ike Davis. The glove, the bat, the power, the temperament, It’s time to make a decision Terry. Pick the player that is best for the team and stick with it.  These  "He's the starter for now" mind games are a waste of time. Get off the pot Terry. You've had four years.  Time to pick a first baseman. Once that's done, you have another decision in center. Time to earn your money Mr. Collins.  

8 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Get Nick Franklin. Nick is 14 for 34 with 6 extra base hits in AAA.

Call up Eric Campbell, who hit .340 with a .596 slug % TO PLATOON WITH GRANDY. Sure, I know that guys you sign for $60MM you typically don't platoon - but Grandy's CAREER #'s vs lefties is a putrid .224/.294/.406, and likely will be worse going forward. Eric does not strike out either, a disease rampant throughout the Mets' line up. And Campbell, due to his ability to get on base, could lead off when he plays.

Eric may be a better choice than Satin or Brown as righty platoon alternative at 1B too.

Get Chris Young back to replace EY, and bring up Campbell and get Franklin, and you might just have a GOOD offense. It would take pressure off the d'Arnauds of the world.

As frustrating as the Duda/Ike scenario currently is, I'd give it a few more weeks to not see which of the two emerges, but which of the 2 submerges...excise that boil from the roster...and if the retained guy does not produce, there are other guys to try from the minors at first - including Campbell. I will say this for Duda - he is striking out too much, but between the spring and now (including rehab games) he has about 8 HR in 70 or so plate appearances...maybe he is about to emerge as a real HR guy, and that would get fans to forget the Ike hit 32 in 2012 thing.

Tom Brennan said...

Campbell's .340 and .596 #'s above were his 2013 Vegas #'s BTW.

Reese Kaplan said...

Craig, I was with you until, " I feel he's a decent game strategiest. but I don’t think he handles young players very well,"

Did you see him twice already this year use 3 pitchers to 3 consecutive batters and 4 pitchers to 4 consecutive batters? Then he opens his yap and says Scott Rice may be tired after pitching in 73 games last year. Hey, Sherlock, who do you think chose to put him in 73 games?

As far as how he works with young players -- he doesn't! His track record is one of proven mediocrity over potential improvement time and time again. What's scary is he was a roving minor league instructor before being miscast (and extended and RENEWED) as losing manager.

How many chances did guys like Rick Ankiel get before Juan Lagares was grudgingly put into the lineup? How much do we have to see of the DFA'd Eric Young, Jr. before we realize that he COULDN'T HIT IN COLORADO so what is the probability he can hit here? He also doesn't get on base, but Collins insists he's his best leadoff option. DUDA has a better OBP than Young!

I'd like to think things will change and I'd like to see some of the fire and passion that sometimes rubbed people the wrong way in Houston and Anaheim. They say he's mellowed. To paraphrase Woody Allen, Terry doesn't respond well to mellow. When he mellows he tends to ripen then rot.

I'm sure James is onto something when he says he sometimes is told who to play vs. who to sit, but I'm sure it's not Sandy Alderson saying, "You know that guy who just came up big for you in the game tonight? Bench him tomorrow!" Yet it happens again and again and again.

Reese Kaplan said...

One more thing -- and it pains me to defend Collins for anything -- but Collin Cowgill was given three consecutive starts before being benched. It's still ludicrous, of course, but if we're piling on, let's at least be accurate with the many arrows from our quiver. :-)

Mack Ade said...

I do want to remind everyone that we are 12 games into the season.

I know of two games the Mets easily could have won.

The team would then be 7-5 and everyone would be being measured for championship rings...

You re-evaluate first after 20 games, than 100 at-bats and 6 outings.

Unknown said...

I have never been a TC fan or his bench coaches. I agree with Reese on most of his points lately about TC. I am not sure what the clubhouse situation is between the manager and the GM, and unless you are there on a day to day basis I have a hard time believing who calls the shots on who plays day to day outside of TC.

When it comes to roster moves, the fans have wished for that guy and this guy, but good players have signed elsewhere that the Mets could really have used on their team. I think Mack hit the nail on the head with some guys along with their agents don't want to be a part of this ownership and front office. Guys talk, on other teams they here and see how the players are treated. Whose to say the Drew didnt sign already because he wants no part of the Mets. Sandy is not going to say he turned us down because we are a horrible run franchise.

The roster is what it is, and i just hope some of the veterans can put together some good months so they can be traded for younger players come July. I probably won't be very close attention till September when the real Mets season begins with all the young guys coming up who might make 2015 worth a daily watch.

BTW the SUE ADE Shortbread is amazing. 12 pieces individually wrapped and in a nice box that can be enjoyed or given as a gift. Worth the money! Thanks Miss Sue. (and Mack of course)

Mack Ade said...

James Preller · Follow · State University of New York at Oneonta
I am sorry, but I think it is crazy to imagine that Terry Collins makes these decisions. He doesn't built the roster. He has the job because he is a corporate "Yes Man." Sandy Alderson is the guy pulling the strings. Perhaps not on a day to day basis, but Sandy tells Collins who plays and who doesn't. TC is just the guy who tries to put a good spin on it. Remember: Sandy is the guy who forced out LaRussa and hired Art Howe.

Mack Ade said...

James makes a good point...

Remember when TC was asked who was going to play somewhere last week and he shot back "why ask me?" or something like that?

That might be true, but it is also unhealthy for your manager to be talking about the GM like this.

What most fans don't realize is this isn't a shot at Sandy... it's just TC reacting to a member of the press he detests. The beat guys can really get uner a manager's skin.