It’s the bottom of the 9th, runners are on second
and third, and you’re down by a single run.
Who would you want coming to the plate for the Mets?
A great many of you would likely answer David Wright and you’d
be justified in choosing him. He’s
clearly the best hitter on the club (though not necessarily showing it this
year), can launch a ball out of the park and has a good track record of driving
in runs.
Others might opt to ride the hot hand who this week,
surprisingly, is Curtis Granderson. He
too can put a ball into orbit and his multi-hit games has his average not quite
up to respectability, but significantly better than he has been in the recent
past when he was failing to hit his weight (and he’s not exactly Pablo Sandoval
out there).
Still others would gravitate to steady Daniel Murphy who,
when he’s on, is as tough to get out as anyone in baseball. He’s a career .283 hitter and seems to
improve with age. He’s not as strikeout
prone as the first two choices, so the chances of a ball getting put into play
are pretty good.
I did a little exercise to see who had the most RBIs per AB
to determine who was producing runs at the best rate. We’ll leave off Juan Centeño and his 10 ABs
as well as the since-departed Andrew Brown.
The player with the highest percentage of RBIs per AB by a fairly wide margin is shockingly Lucas Duda.
Duda? The guy who
looks like he should be leading the league in HRs but instead is second to the
top on the team in Ks? Yes, Lucas Duda – one and the
same. A .244 AVG is not too exciting,
but his 5 HRs are second to Granderson for the team lead.
By contrast, his ex first base rival, Ike Davis, has but 2
HRs and 10 RBIs for Pittsburgh. Thus far
it’s beginning to look like they made the right call on that trade
(particularly when you look at the eye-popping numbers Zack Thornton is
producing for Wally Backman in Las Vegas).
If you held a gun to my head I never would have guessed Duda would come
out on top in producing runs.
Just for giggles I checked out to see who was the worst in
that regard and it was not Ruben Tejada.
No, it turned out to be Terry Collins’ favorite player to perform in the
leadoff position in the order (since referring to him as a hitter or batter
would be a case of false advertising) – Eric Young, Jr.
12 comments:
What where percentages of the top five guys?
Oddly, Duda has not hit well in "close and late" situations, so his clutch rating is still low. I hope Campbell and Flores (and d'Arnaud, assuming he hits upon return) will get a lot more guys on base to drive in, and these other guys like Duda can show their true clutch colors soon. Sleepers or keepers.
I don't think I saved the spreadsheet, but Duda was just shy of 15% for RBIs per AB, Granderson around 13%, etc.
Got to say, I'd still go with Murph. I'd like to see the stats on percentage of RBI producing AB's. It's not so much how many RBI's you can produce in an AB, but the likelihood of producing at least one.
Murph
My own choices would be Murphy or Lagares who seem to have a knack of coming up big. Also, Murph is less likely to strike out.
I'd go with Murphy, too. A year ago, I'd have gone with Turner, but we "didn't need him" so we cut him to clear a spot for Q.
As for RBI/AB, it's a useless stat unless you combine it with RBI opps. A cleanup hitter has MANY more chances to come up with men on than a guy batting behind the #8 hitter and the pitcher. And a guy who hits homers with men on will outdo a singles hitter anywhere in the lineup. I'd be astounded if any team's leadoff or #8 hitters were near the top of Reader's list.
My pick would be wright if he had someone to protect him in the lineup, they aren't giving him anything to hit
Zozo -
there's no place to put a runner if you pitch Wright outside the zone... Wright walks and the run scores. No, Wright would get a pitch or two here...
Hey Reese
Duda is 3 for 30 with 15 strikeouts in tie games, and 5 for 30 in "games late and close". He is 2 for 35 after hitting with a 2-2 count, with similar #'s for 0-2 and 1-2. I advocated for him since he hit over .300 in each of July Aug and Sept of 2011, but something is just wrong with him in pressure situations. Those #s are just very indicative.
Meanwhile, Ike seems to be figuring it out in Pittsburgh, up to .277 - yes, without power so far, but it will be interesting to see where both stand a month from now. I just get reminded, when thinking of Duda, with how outstanding Eddie Murray was with them in bags full situations, or how tough Keith was no matter what the count when you needed him to do something.
If it's bottom of the 9th, down a run, and runners on 2nd and 3rd, ANY decent hitter will be walked. No number of outs was specified, but if it's less than 2 a walk will set up a DP chance. Even with 2 out, a force at any base is the setup that the team in the field wants.
Change the question to "BASES LOADED" in that scenario and it becomes realistic to choose a hitter.
It's not bases loaded, I would put him on 1st.
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