Tom Brennan - A METS 2011-16 DRAFT LOOK-BACK

Tom Brennan - A METS 2011-16 DRAFT LOOK-BACK

Now that the 2017 draft has recently ended, one way to assess an organization's draft success is to go back through the past several drafts and evaluate them.

The past 6 Mets drafts prior to 2017 (2011-16): how'd the top 5 rounds' Mets picks (the rounds which are most critical to a team's future success) fared in each of those years?

And, with the benefit of hindsight, where they should instead have been picked...let's do it:

2011

Brandon Nimmo, OF, 1st Round, # 13 - time will tell, but in retrospect, I'd have taken him in the 2nd or 3rd round.  Looks like a bad high first round pick.

Michael Fulmer, SP, Comp Round, # 44 - great pick, turned into the Gimper, Yoenis Cespedes.  He should have been our # 13 first round pick.

Cory Mazzoni, SP, 2nd Round, # 71 - bust pick.  S/H/B a 6th - 10th round pick, in retrospect.

Logan Verrett, SP, 3rd Round, # 101 - homer-prone marginal pitcher, s/h/b a 6th - 10th round pick, in retrospect.

Tyler Pill, SP, 4th Round, # 132 - pretty much the same as Verrett - drafted too high.

Jack Leathersich, RP, 5th Round, # 162 - the K king had worked through his control issues and made a successful debut with the Mets before he blew out his elbow. 

He was awful for the Cubs AAA team in April, but since then, 23 IP, 38 K, 13 H, 8 BB - seems ready to pitch in a major league pen again.  Worthy of having been picked in the 4th or 5th round, IMO.  Good pick.

2012

Gavin Cecchini - IF -  1st Round, # 12 - might at best be an average major leaguer some day - he should have been a 3rd - 5th round selection, based on production so far.  Mediocre in AAA so far in 2017.  A bad high 1st round pick.

Kevin Plawecki - C - Comp Round, # 35 - like Cecchini, seems at best he will be an average catcher - has failed hitting in his first few trials at the big league level and struggles to throw runners out.  He should have been a 3rd - 5th round selection.  Likely a bad pick, but the jury is still out.

Matt Reynolds - IF - 2nd Round, # 71 - seems his ceiling is a marginal MLB utility player - he should have been drafted in the 6th - 10th rounds instead.  Bad pick so high.

Teddy Stankiewicz - SP - 2nd round, # 75 - did not sign with the Mets - no way a team should botch a pick for a guy as high as # 75 - bad, bad pick.

Matt Koch - SP - 3rd Round,  #107 - he had a brief cup of coffee with the D backs last fall, but his minor league record was more fitting of a 6th - 10th rounder.  Bad pick.

Brandon Kaupe - SS - 4th Round, # 140 pick - horrible pick who never hit, and hit for absolutely zero power - just 4 doubles and 6 triples in 600 plate appearances.  44 errors in 160 games - and only 5' 7" - what on earth were they thinking?  Should have been drafted after the 20th round.

Brandon Welch - SP - 5th Round, # 170 pick - he threw just 65 minor league innings and then was released.  Horrible pick.  Should not have gone in the first 10 rounds.

2013

Dominic Smith - 1B - 1st Round, # 11 pick - it is unclear yet if he was worthy of  # 11 overall pick - perhaps a 2nd rounder, although he would have been gone well before then.  Let's hope his career turns out above average.

Andrew Church - SP - 2nd Round, # 48 pick - cremated lately in High A ball, appears to be a bust who was never a strikeout pitcher - so it mystifies as to what the Mets were thinking with this pick - 6th to 10th round would have been more appropriate, if that high.

Ivan Wilson - OF - 3rd Round # 76 pick - bust pick, power athlete who could never stop striking out at a crazy high rate.

Casey Meisner - SP - 3rd Round, # 84 pick - included in a 2015 trade and is pitching well in the minors this year.  3rd round pick was appropriate.

LJ Mazzilli - IF - 4th Round, # 116 pick - he is getting old and several infielders down the Mets' minor league depth chart - he should have been picked closer to round # 10.

Jared King - OF - 5th Round, # 146 - mediocre, voluntarily retired - probably should have gone after the 10th round.

2014

Michael Conforto - OF - 1st Round, # 10 pick - doing well, selected as All Star - they picked well here.

No Second Round Pick

Milton Ramos - SS - 3rd Round, # 84 pick - supposedly a glove whiz, but a weak bat (in Columbia .227/.272/.276 this year) - seems like a guy who should have been picked later than the 10th round, so Ramos to me is a bad pick so far.

Eudor Garcia - 3B - 4th Round, # 115 pick - promising bat was negated by suspensions and his recent release by the Mets - since the latter issues could not be anticipated at draft time, this was not a bad pick.

Josh Prevost - RP - 5th Round, # 145 pick - mediocre, low K hurler, now out for all of 2017 (I believe) with TJS - he should have been picked after the 20th round - bad pick.

2015

No First Round Pick


Desmond Lindsay - OF - 2nd Round, # 53 pick - oft-injured (including now), struggling this season with Columbia in A ball (.190 in 53 games): time will tell, but so far, not so good at all.  Maybe he should have been a 4th or 5th rounder.


Max Wotell - RP - 3rd Round, # 88 pick - having a bad year, so he looks like an iffy pick at best for the 3rd round.  In hindsight, perhaps a 6th to 10th round pick instead.


David Thompson, 3B - 4th Round, 119th pick - high RBI guy who still needs to up aspects of his overall offensive game, but a very appropriate 4th round pick, IMO.  Solid glove.


Tom Szapucki - SP - 5th Round, 149th pick - awesome lefty pitcher when healthy (as he is now), he makes up for the Mets not having a 2015 1st round (#23 overall) pick, as he'd have made a good 1st round pick in that slot.

2016

Justin Dunn - SP - 1st Round, 19th pick - maybe he'll still justify a 1st round selection, but he's pitched more like a 3rd to 5th rounder so far - let's see if and when it clicks for Dunn.

Anthony Kay - SP - Comp Round, # 31 pick - not off to a good start by any objective standard - with zero pro innings and TJS.  If the elbow problem were known, perhaps a 5th round (or lower) slot would have made more sense.

Peter Alonso - 1B - 2nd Round, # 64 pick - power hitter who broke his hand in both his debut 2016 and 2017 seasons.  Slow start in 2017 in St Lucie, but showing legitimate power.  I think his # 64 pick level was proper.

Blake Tiberi - 3B - 3rd Round, # 100 pick - a .229 hitter in 61 games, before (I believe) he needed season ending TJS after just 18 at bats this year and after homering in his first 2 games in 2017.  Ignoring the TJS, he looks (based on performance to date) like he should have been drafted in the 6th to 10th rounds.  So far, not a good pick in round # 3.

Michael Paez - SS - 4th Round, # 130 pick - he is having a very solid season, with a recent promotion to St Lucie.  At 5'8", 4th round slot is a bit questionable, but he is showing so far that it was a reasonable pick level.

Colby Woodmansee - SS - 5th Round, # 160 pick - he had a decent inaugural season for Brooklyn in 2016, but also has been injury-limited in 2017, just 2 for 32 so far.  My guess is 6th to 10th round would've been more appropriate.  At 6'3", 190, he could be a corner IF or OF in the future, so at least size is working for him in terms of possible flexibility.

CONCLUSION:

With few exceptions, the Mets drafted very badly in 2011-16. 

By my count, out of the 33 picks in the first 5 rounds of 2011-16, only 2 picks in the top 5 rounds appear to be substantially better than where they were picked (Fulmer and Szapucki); 8 others appear to have been drafted in the correct round; and the remaining 23 of the 33 picks (70%!!!) should have been selected later than they were, or not at all. 

In the first 5 rounds, I'd personally draft only power arms, power bats, and speedsters.  Tough guys, to boot.  Period, end of story.  I think that would result in a higher grade. 

There's lots of Mets-drafted guys here who do fit into those categories.  So how would one expect them, without those qualitied, to have a future major league impact? 

Mostly, guys who make a major league impact are power arms, power bats, and speedsters.

I give the Mets a bad, C- grade overall at best for the 5 years.

Probably more like a D+ if I were being fully objective.

What are your thoughts folks?  What's your 5 year grade?