10/1/17

Tom Brennan - MY METS PROSPECTS: # 12 JEFF MCNEIL


Tom Brennan - MY METS PROSPECTS: # 12 JEFF MCNEIL

Last day of a bad season, a good time to look at the future.

You may think I'm crazy to have him as my # 12 prospect, but I am a big boy, make my own decisions (just a minute, I'm coming, dear) and do not follow the posse of evaluators who would all overlook or under-rate this gent; simply put, I have always liked Jeff McNeil as a player.

Yes, I know he made like Robert Redford in the Natural, where he disappeared from the game for a long time just as he was breaking out.  In Jeff's case, he essentially missed over a season and a half in 2016 and 2017 with a variety of tough injuries. 

Prior to his injury, he was a fast, good hitting infielder with a fine batting average and on base skills.  But little power.  

He, however, is smart - what do I need to do to make a weakness a strength - and so he bulked up about 30 pounds from where he started as a pro, and thus I believe the power will move from low to moderate.  Which, to me, would make him a ideal utility infielder.  

He has played mostly 2nd, SS and 3rd, but also played some at 1B and in the outfield.  His versatility is a real plus.  And defensively solid at all.

Can he hit, you ask?  

In 48 games in A and AAA in 2017, he hit .295/.351/.432, pretty darned good considering the rust he must have accumulated.  

In his career, he has hit .303/.372/.396, with 49 steals in 64 attempts and 12 career triples.  

Shortly after his debut in AAA late this season, he had a nice stretch showing he can succeed at high levels, where he went 16 for 46, 5 doubles and a HR, 3 walks and just 6 Ks.  

So the answer is, YES, he can hit, and I expect to see a lot of that bat quality out of Jeff in 2018.

He also has scored 202 runs in the equivalent of a little more than 2 major league seasons, impressive considering he mostly played for low hitting/scoring teams over those years.  While RBIs are nice, so are runs scored.

I am convinced that he would have been in the major leagues, very possibly before the slower-footed TJ Rivera, had McNeil not gotten hurt and missed over 200 games in 2016 and 2017.

Going into 2018, the number of his infield competitors is frankly huge, so the soon-to-turn 26 year old (2nd week of the 2018 season) will have to stand out.  I believe he will do exactly that.  Most of his competitors lack certain tools - Jeff has them all - he can hit, hit with (now some power), throw, run, defend, and is versatile.  

So, for instance, ask me if I had two players to choose from to keep, Gavin Cecchini or Jeff McNeil, who I would keep?  His initials? JM.  

Luis Guillorme or Jeff McNeil?  I'll let Mack answer that one (then I'll give the correct answer, LOL).

So, please - don't write him off because he is older for a prospect, only due to injury.  I for one expect to see him in Queens at some point in 2018. Maybe, similar to a former super sub Joe McEwing, a/k/a Super Joe, McNeil may some day be known as Super Jeff.

Considering the substandard performance of owner Jeff Wilpon, it is my feeling that it would be nice to have one competent Jeff in Queens.  So stay healthy, Mr. McNeil, and get here pronto. 



6 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Saw slugger Greg Bird was picked in the 5th round of 2011. Mets picked Jack Leathersich...he has not pitched much for the Cubbies this year, but has done well in 5 September outings for Cubs. Maybe the Mets can trade one of their righty acquired relievers for Jack.

in his last 3 months in AAA this year, he went 33 innings, just 13 hits, 2 earned runs, walked 15 (still Wild Jack), and fanned 56.

Thoughts, anyone?

Unknown said...

Since Alderson took the helm his first round picks have netted us 1 .....yes 1 legitimate star and of course he's hurt and we probably won't see him till next June but Freddy loves the guy so wins be dammed he's staying and Thomas those are my thoughts and I'm sticking with em!

Tom Brennan said...

Sandy ain't dandy

/longTimeFan1 said...

Tom Brennan

I don't know whose Vegas stats you are looking at, but you did not accurately portray McNeil's 2017 Vegas performance. You're cherry picking a portion of an already small sample size.

QUOTE: "Shortly after his debut in AAA late this season, he had a nice stretch showing he can succeed at high levels, where he went 16 for 46, 5 doubles and a HR, 3 walks and just 6 Ks."


He actually went 18/71 with a .661 OPS, BA .254.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcneil000jef


I like Jeff McNeil who undoubtedly has some all around skills when healthy, but has been unable to stay on the field especially the last two seasons, barely playing 50 games combined.

How likely are the Mets to put a very injury prone utility player on a 40 man roster already in short supply, nor protect from Rule 5?

In five seasons he's played in just 338 games, and has long fallen off MLB Pipeline Top 30 where he was at the bottom end of that list.

He has to stay healthy and perform across a full season.

Whatever you think of his ability, you're correct that putting him #12 raises eyebrows about someone who was never even close to that level even when healthy and hasn't been viewed as starter material.

There are plenty players with unactualized talent. Putting on 30 pounds is smart, but we really haven't seen the dividends at Vegas SLG .366. The biggest thing going for him in utility role as potential Met is speed and left hand hitting.

I doubt that's enough at this point for him to land on the 40 unless the Mets believe he'll stay healthy and they move one or more utility infielders on the current 40 out of the organization or place on waivers.

For me, at best, Mcneil is 25-30 prospect rank. But regardless of prospect rank, the reality is he's blocked on the 40 and Sandy Alderson always gives preference to those already on it or next in line having worked their way up.

If Mets depart with Cechhini and Reynolds, McNeil could work his way up with a good spring training and AA/AAA performance in 2018, but is unlikely to usurp Guillorme who is next in line and was Mets Sterling Award winner for AA.

If McNeil is Rule 5 eligible this December, he might not even be a Met by the second week of December. But as I said earlier, I like McNeil. Hope he stays healthy and remains a Met.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, I appreciate your clear and thorough thoughts. My referenced stats, which I should have been clearer on, were for a stretch of specific games. About a dozen games up to and excluding his last two games of the season.

I certainly did cherrypick that stretch of games, but it was meant to show he can well handle AAA especially in 2018 IF healthy and without rust.

I certainly don't think he will be on the 40 man - his injuries will shield him from that. Good for the Mets. But I think Jeff with 195 pounds on him will be different than he was at 165. I just believe he is an undervalued asset who will shine in 2018. Same good hitter but with more power than pre-2016, and a little more cautious stealing,to avoid any further injuries.

Maybe when you consider the hard-to-project, but talented DSL players, of whom I only included 1 in my Top 50, a few more than that might push him down my list. But having Jeff at #12 does not mean I see a budding star... If he were a Yankee prospect, I bet I would have him down in 25-30, maybe lower. Mets' system is pretty bare. Mets? Ranked 27th of 30 by BB America for a reason. Have a great day.

Tom Brennan said...

I apologize, Long Time Fan 1, I wrote Gus by mistake.