10/31/17

Tom Brennan - TEN GUYS I LEFT OUT OF MY TOP 50

Tom Brennan - TEN GUYS I LEFT OUT OF MY TOP 50

Even in an organization with as relatively weak a minor league system as the Mets had at the end of 2017, when you have 7 minor league teams and two DSL teams, that's a slew of players, so some guys you'd like to get in the top 50 miss out because, well, 50 is only 50. Here are 10 I left out of my top 50 that others might not have left out of theirs:

Greg Guerrero - I know, international bonus baby, famous name, you all think I should have him in my Top 10, don't you?  Sorry, ain't happening: GG has hit just .236 with just 13 doubles and a triple in 390 DSL and GCL at bats in 2016 and 2017. Only 19 next year, but sorry, he has not earned his way into my top 50.  You can have him in yours if you'd like.  I'm guessing his uncle Vladimir only did as well as he did due to Russian collusion, at least that is what I heard on CNN.

Michael Paez - Columbia's best of a bad bunch hitters before a mid season promo, but the diminutive IF hit just .200 with a sluggish .270 slug % for St Lucie in 63 games.  I need to see better if he is to be included in my top 50.

Matt Pobereyko - he had his first real minor league season with Columbia after the Mets picked him up. Did very nicely, too...2-2, 3.14 with 53 Ks in 34 IP.  But he turns 26 in December, and one has to wonder if his ceiling is Beck Wheeler-ish. He needs a great 2018 to really become relevant. (Great in the AFL this fall too, as pointed out by Joe Namath).

Kelly Secrest - about to turn 27, he is a nice bullpen lefty whose ceiling may be high minors.

Kyle Regnault - probably should be in my top 50 after a great relief campaign in AA and AAA, going 7-0, 2.78 with 66 Ks in 64 IP, but he is turning 29 and was not called up to help a beleaguered Mets staff in September, so I am not sure enough about him to make my top 50.

Dash Winningham - a first baseman with Columbia, it is hard to have a 21 year old with over 40 homers and 200 RBIs already not be in your top 50, but 2 straight seasons in Columbia hitting in the .230s leaves something to be desired.

Ryder Ryan - the most raw of the relievers acquired in Mets trades in 2017, Ryan had a 3-4, 4.14 season with 62 Ks in 54 IP in A ball. Just 22 this year and early in the process of refining his trade craft, he likely climbs into the top 50 in 2018.

LJ Mazzilli - a dumb 4th round in 2013, considering that Cody Bellinger was available at the time. He has hit .225 in 100 AAA at bats, and has a mediocre career line of .268/.338/.378, making Danny Muno look like a Hall of Famer.  And Mazz turned 27 in September, so even having him in my top 60 is generous. My take is when his playing days are over, only one L Mazzilli will have ever reached the majors, his proud papa.

Austin McGeorge - he really should have been in my top 50 - my apologies. In 31 games in Lucie and Columbia, the 2016 7th round reliever was fantastic: 2-2, 1.78, 0.99 WHIP, with 66 Ks in 51 IP.  He is clearly my # 51 who should have been my # 41.  I'll make it up next year, Austin - avoid Tommy John surgery (you see, somebody has to) and you are my #1 prospect next season.

Dave Roseboom - pitched poorly in AAA early in 2017, then needed season ending foot surgery, which may have been the cause of his pitching struggles. In AA in 2016, the lefty reliever was simply  awesome: 1-1, 1.87 in 52 games, 14 of 15 saves. Looking for him to have a healthy rebound in 2018.

Some special mention guys , but not included in the top 60: Ricky Knapp - stunk in AAA, but it is Vegas, after all; Al Baldonado - ditto; Logan Taylor - all the acquired relievers could hurt his future chances of making the Mets; Aaron Ford - 33 Ks in 21 innings, but throw 50 innings and I'll consider it; Dale Burdick - like him a lot - next year, he is in my top 20; and Anthony Dirocie, only because with the presumed departure of Travis Taijeron, he is literally the only Mets minor league OF with home run power (pretty astonishing). Trouble is, he fans more that Taijeron..

Thus concludes my 35 articles covering my Mets prospects.  Hope you enjoyed it and perhaps learned a little something about these guys.  Let's draft better going forward, shall we? 

Speaking of drafting, my 9 part, groundbreaking, earth shattering (LOL) series of articles on Mets drafting efforts over the past 10 years STARTS FRIDAY.

8 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

Good list of organizational talent.

I have Guerero at #18. 2018 could be a breakout year for the prospect.

TexasGusCC said...

That whole draft class of Paez, Woodmansee, Taberi, and a few other hitters that year was just pure folly. There needs to be an overhaul of the Mets scouting department, and draft strategy.

McGeorge needs more love. Ryan and Winningham have some promise.

If you want to go by age, why is Tebow on your top prospects and these guys aren't? Nothing that they should be, but they are more prospect than our inspirational outfielder.

Mack Ade said...

Texas -

Don't hold T.T. against Tom. He has a man-crush on the old guy.

Tom Brennan said...

Texas Gus, I have Tim Tebow in my Top 30 simply because, well, he is Tim Tebow and I am not as purely analytical as other sites that rank guys - Tebow brings out the kid in me.

I think the guys you mention have definite upside.

And absolutely, drafting folly - my 9 part series on draft follies starts Friday, but really gets a kick off tomorrow at noon with a breakdown of homers by Mets minors outfielders - it ain't pretty, and much of it is due to bad drafting.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, Tebow has only scratched the surface - but I say that about my dog, too.

I hope you are right about Guerrero...but we just got the wrong one.

Vlad Guerrero Jr as an 18 year old split his season between Full A and High A, and put up the astonishing stat line of .323/.425/.485. If that does not scream SUPERSTAR, I don't know what does.

TexasGusCC said...

The Mets spent $1.3MM on getting A "Guerrero", rather than spending three times that to get THE "Guerrero". Let's see if the kid bounces back next year. Freddy Coupon strikes again; penny wise, dollar foolish.

Tom Brennan said...

The Wilpons avoid big splash players - I don't know if they could have signed Vlad Jr...but they should have tried. And I don't mean halfheartedly.

Hobie said...

Went back over your list to nit-pick :-)

You included 19 yr old DSL phenom Yoel Romero in your top 40. .354BA (.903 OPS), 32/31 K/BB 2/25 HR/RBI
but not
18 yr old Luis Santana (also 2B??!!) Luis' shabby BA is only .325, but .911 OPS, 22/34 K/BB, 3/52 HR/RBI & 8 3B in the same no. AB's as Yoel.

You have room in your 40 as Steve Nogosek hogs 2 spots; #26 AND #40.