10/7/17

Reese Kaplan -- Yo Won't Go


Earlier this week our own Peter Hyatt said that he’s hearing the Mets are quietly shopping Yoenis Cespedes in the attempt to improve the clubhouse.  That’s an interesting story on a number of levels, but I find it very difficult to believe this rumor.

First of all, Sandy Alderson does not admit to making mistakes.  He handed out a contract that was second only to Miguel Cabrera is average annual value to a position player and now a year later he’s going to not only eat crow by conceding that his decision was wrong, but also that he’s going to kick in money to the acquiring team to help sweeten deal?  Think back to the great salary dumps of 2017.  Did he offer to kick in money in any of those deals?  Did he hold out for ranked prospects?  No.  So if he didn’t do that then, why would he do it now?

While we're on the subject of Sandy Alderson, who else finds it ludicrous that a man who constructed this mess and now is trying to get out from under his biggest blunder has been rewarded with a two year contract extension?  It's almost like you were handed a nearly .500 team to manage, had them finish worse, then worse again for the next two years and got rewarded with a contract extension...wait, they did that, too, didn't they?

Getting back to the left fielder, bear in mind that Yoenis Cespedes has a full no trade clause as part of his deal.  Obviously if you wave some additional money at him then it’s possible to get him to agree to a deal.  Let’s look at the particulars.  The Mets are on the hook for $29 million in 2018, $29 million in 2019 and $29.5 million in 2020.  That’s $87.5 million in total.  Let’s assume for a moment that given Cespedes’ reputation for being a clubhouse problem puts him in the 50% off discount bin, then they would be on the hook for $43.75 million plus whatever they have to give La Potencia to make him agree to pack his bags.  Let’s say for the sake of argument it’s $6.25 million, over $2 million per year, to bring the Mets buy down to a cool $50 million.    

Can you honestly picture the Mets spending $50 million simply to get rid of a guy?  There is no real precedent of that magnitude.  They did kick Jason Bay to the curb while still owing him $21 million on his deal.  Oliver Perez came at a cost of $12 million.  Luis Castillo was due $6 million.  Bobby Bonilla was owed a mere $5.9 million but set up that outlandish deferred payment deal resulting in $29.8 going to the ex-Met in $1.19 million installments every year until 2035 

The thought is that they’re trying to change the culture of the dysfunctional clubhouse Alderson built and Collins let run rampant.  Yet at the same time they’re discussing cutting Cespedes, there are rumors of exercising the option on fellow malcontent Asdrubal Cabrera and on picking up free agent Jose Reyes.  They would likely be looking to peddle Matt Harvey, but his 2017 season has made him the ultimate sell-low candidate and they would get nothing in return for him. 

While the thought of a truly new club built around Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, a hopefully healthy Steve Matz, Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Amed Rosario, Dom Smith, Wilmer Flores and a surgically repaired Michael Conforto is appealing in that for the most part this core seems to play hard.  However, from what we’ve seen of Alderson he’s not big on change which seems only to occur when his back is against the wall (if at all). 

Furthermore, call me cynical, but even if the hypothetical $50 million spend was done, the Mets would recoup $37.5 million of payroll.   Who among us thinks it would be reinvested in the roster?  Furthermore, what Class A free agents would say to themselves, “Yeah, I want to be a part of the Mets!  They stop at nothing to try to win.” 

Granted, there are some pitchers who you might want to try to lock up like deGrom and Syndergaard.  Once proven healthy, you may want to do the same with Conforto.  The jury is still out on newcomers Rosario and Smith.  However, spreading the wealth among the first three would be justifiable, unlike a roll of the dice on Juan Lagares which for the most part has come up snake eyes. 

With Cespedes gone, however, you need to replace the offense.  There’s conjecture that the first move is a prelude to luring back Jay Bruce, but at this point that’s all it is.  Bruce is in an interesting  situation.  He’s hitting free agency for the first time, but when he was shopped by the Reds they wound up essentially giving him away.  Sandy Alderson found no takers once he had re-signed Cespedes and then when he did his deadline deals the best he could get for a guy who finished the year with 36 HRs and 101 RBIs was Ryder Ryan, a relief pitcher a career 4.93 ERA.  You’d think he’d have many interested in his services and it’s going to take probably $18 million or more for multiple years to lock him up.  Ditto J.D. Martinez. 

Personally I think Yoenis Cespedes is a Met for the long haul, warts and all.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing and perhaps you can achieve the same objective of changing the clubhouse culture by NOT picking up Cabrera’s option and NOT bringing back Jose Reyes.  Without his triumvirate of bad influence maybe you can reap the benefits of why you signed him in the first place.  Then again, that would require a manager with some backbone who holds people accountable.   Stay tuned.

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For what it's worth, it may be worth revisiting a few articles penned in June and July when the prospect of replacing Terry Collins was but a pipe dream.  Based upon  the media coverage of late it appears I identified a number of the very same candidates that are now apparently on the Mets' radar.  Yesterday, in fact, they hired one of the recommended options to take over for Pedro Lopez in Las Vegas, former Sandy Alderson minor league manager Tony DeFrancesco:

Minor League Managers to Consider for the Big Job

Major League Players/Experienced Managers 

7 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

I try not to get in between my writers but Peter's series of posts on Cespedes are hard to ignore.

Sources. God, I hate those words. And ask David Rubin about how I was burned by them in the past.

An 'unnamed' source means that person won't even put his own name around what he is telling the writer. What if the source has a different agenda?

I believe Peter believes what he is saying in his posts, but it may be a mix of opinion and questionable sources.

Or, I'm wrong and it's the stone cold truth.

See how much I hate the word 'source'?

(Just my opinion...)

Unknown said...

I wouldn't sign any of them long term. If next year our pitching doesn't return to something resembling 15' or 16' it would behoove us to trade both DeGrom and Thor and completely rebuild with the big upside for the Wilponzies is they could lower the payroll even more so what's not to like right Jeff.

Unknown said...

I’m just wondering if Alex Cora is named manager would Cespedes fall into line ? Cora has a good reputation with Latino players & maybe just maybe he can “ground” our moody malcontent of a left fielder

Mack Ade said...

New Las Vegas manager post at 9am

Tom Brennan said...

I am with your logic, Reece. We need La Potencia in 2018, not La Dispensia.

Tom Brennan said...

Ed, I'd say yes - also saw the Mets are considering Alomar, Jr., which could have a similar benefit.

Hobie said...

BTW, I'm hearing that the Yankees' failure to replay the HBP is Terry's fault. (Unnamed source)