Mike Friere - Maybe It's Just Me?

As the title of this article says, “maybe it’s just me”.  

It was the immediate mental follow up to my initial reaction of absolute “shock” after reading that the Cubs committed 126 million dollars over six years to starting pitcher Yu Darvish (with the possibility that it could reach 150 million dollars if certain clauses are met).   Now, don’t completely misunderstand what I am saying.   I think Darvish is a fine pitcher and he would likely start for any other team’s rotation in 2018 and beyond.  My “shock” had more to do with the dollar amount that the Cubs are investing in a pitcher who may very well have started his inevitable decline.   

I think Tom and I share a similar view on long term, nine figure contracts.   Some would refer to them as “second generation” contracts in that you are paying a player as much for what they have done as you are for what they are likely to do for you.  In a perfect world, the player exceeds the contract and the team is successful (which is rare).  In a “that’s nice” sort of world, the player comes close to returning equal value on the field, when compared to what the team is paying for their services (a bit more common, but not likely).   Lastly, the player simply does not live up to the contract, despite the fact that they may provide a “decent" level of value and/or performance on the field (the most common outcome).

The Mets have first hand experience with “second generation” contracts, most recently with David Wright.  Granted, his decline or outright absence had as much to do with an unfortunate medical condition as anything, but you have to wonder if he would have lived up to the contract if he had been able to play on a daily basis.   Alas, we will never know, but I feel confident that the odds were against that happening.

Pivoting back to Darvish for a moment, he is a 31 year old starting pitcher who will turn 32 in August of this year.  So, in short, the Cubs are paying him an average of 21 million dollars to pitch from his age 31/32 season to his age 36/37 season!

Statistically, he has been pitching in MLB since the 2012 season, which is six seasons when you count last year in the equation.  He has made a total of 131 starts over that time, which is roughly 4.37 seasons worth if you use thirty starts as the benchmark for a “full season”.  The other 1.64 seasons worth of starts were lost to injuries, to include parts of the 2014 season, ALL of the 2015 season and parts of the 2016 season (not counting the mileage on his arm from his time in Japan, before he came to America).

VD (not the best use of initials, I will confess) has an impressive statistical "season average" for the time that he has been on the field;

190 IP

12.8 Wins - 9.63 Losses

1.18 WHIP

11.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9

4.45 WAR

So, what’s the issue, right?   Well, look at his 2017 season (split between the AL and NL), compared to his “averages” and you should start to see a bit of a decline;

186 IP

10 Wins - 12 Losses

1.17 WHIP

10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9

3.8 WAR

Still respectable, I will admit, but not quite as good as his past and he is now a year older heading into 2018.  Oh and he had an ABYSMAL World Series for the Dodgers, which is troubling and perhaps it is clouding my judgement a bit.

In short, I think VD is an above average starter, but he is a HUGE risk for the money and the length of the contract that he just secured from the Cubs.  I could be completely wrong here, but I would wager that he will not justify the money that he is going to make over the next six years.  Better them, then us…..or perhaps it is just me?

How so you feel about this contract and does it scare you a bit when your thoughts turn to locking up Jacob DeGrom in the near future?