Reese Kaplan -- Leading Off For Mickey Callaway???

Perhaps the final remaining offensive item on Sandy Alderson’s to-do list has been accomplished.  Todd Frazier was acquired for a bargain price – less than half of what you paid last year for Neil Walker – and they’re only on the hook for two seasons.  Infield defense on the left side has substantially improved (perhaps at the expense of the right side).  It’s good news when right handed hitters are at the plate but prepare for a few hold-your-breath moments when it’s a lefty swinging.

While the players taking the field in the lineup now appear to be set, a question looming over Mickey Callaway is who’s going to lead off?  Right now you have no perfect long-term answer.  The obvious one that comes to mind on Opening Day is to insert Brandon Nimmo in centerfield and have him assume the role given his strong OBP and high walk rate.  He’s not a speed demon by any means, but he’s quick enough that he’s not going to hurt you on the basepaths as he once stole 14 bases in a minor league season.

The problem with this approach is it’s a band-aid while Michael Conforto continues to heal.  Once he’s ready to go, Nimmo assumes his roles as a 4^th/5^th outfielder.  Hopefully gone are the days of Jose Reyes in that role with Asdrubal Cabrera being paid to play 2^nd base.  What to do, what to do…

To me the answer is pretty obvious, but I’ve been beaten down by the Terry Collins approach of the last seven years.  During his minor league career Amed Rosario had seasons in which he posted OBP numbers of .374 and .367 as he hit the upper levels of the minors.  I can understand babying him a bit in the beginning of the season without putting the additional pressure of asking him to lead off on day one.  However, I think the makings are there for a unique lefty/righty, leadoff/8^th place role. 

Since the team doesn’t face that many left handed starting pitchers, you have the opportunity to ease Rosario into what should become his long term role by inserting him once a week or so in the leadoff position in the lineup.  Juan Lagares would then take over Rosario’s customary 8^th place position assuming Nimmo continues to struggle a bit against lefties and Callaway adopts a CF platoon. 

This suggested lineup combination would allow Rosario to get a taste of what’s necessary to do to set the table and perhaps help force him into greater pitch selectivity resulting in more walks.  Furthermore, if it works, then you have a long term solution for that role.  Reports are already out that the plan is to have Juan Lagares lead off in the interim until Michael Conforto is ready, then having Conforto take over that function upon his return.

While there’s a certain school of thought that dictates you put your best hitter up first to allow him to maximize the number of at-bats he gets in a game, tradition says that your middle-of-the-order hitters should indeed hit in the 4/5/6 slots.  Certainly Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes are part of that triumvirate.  If, defying expectations, Adrian Gonzalez regains his former All-Star form, then he’s certainly in that conversation as well.  The slow footed-Bruce and Gonzalez wouldn’t be considered in the leadoff role, and Cespedes is the only righty.  Therefore it’s understandable that some would conjecture that Conforto gets the nod.

However, if you look at Conforto’s admittedly small baseball resume, he’s a plodding baserunner as well, never having stolen more than 3 bases in a full season.  However, if baserunning isn’t the priority, he sports a minor league career OBP of an eye-popping .404.  That’s something to consider. 

Juan Lagares does have some speed.  He stole 13 bases during that 2014 season for which he was rewarded with his current contract.  In the minors he’s stolen as many as 25 in a season, so he’s certainly not going to hurt you on the basepaths.  The problem with him at the major league level has been getting onto first in order to take advantage of his speed.  Over the equivalent of three full seasons he’s walked a paltry 81 times.  That’s astonishingly bad and his .257 batting average has resulted in a major league career OBP under .300.  Putting him into the lineup has merit for what he can do with his arm and his glove but there’s no reason a sensible person would want him to lead off.   

Of course, now there's a wildcard entrant into this equation -- Todd Frazier.  While most clubs would not consider putting a low average slugger in the leadoff slot, that's exactly what the Mets did the majority of the time with Curtis Granderson.  In many ways, Frazier is a mirror image of Granderson on the offensive side of the equation.  He gets on base at a surprisingly decent clip despite fighting to stay over the Mendoza line.  It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for him to be considered for the same non-standard role Granderson held, but he's probably better suited to breaking up the trio of lefty sluggers slated to be in the lineup (when Conforto returns).

So what’s your answer to this role?  I stand by my suggestion of easing Rosario into the role against lefties and thus open up two possibilities for when Conforto returns.  May the better man win.