2/7/18

Reese Kaplan -- Leading Off For Mickey Callaway???


Perhaps the final remaining offensive item on Sandy Alderson’s to-do list has been accomplished.  Todd Frazier was acquired for a bargain price – less than half of what you paid last year for Neil Walker – and they’re only on the hook for two seasons.  Infield defense on the left side has substantially improved (perhaps at the expense of the right side).  It’s good news when right handed hitters are at the plate but prepare for a few hold-your-breath moments when it’s a lefty swinging.


While the players taking the field in the lineup now appear to be set, a question looming over Mickey Callaway is who’s going to lead off?  Right now you have no perfect long-term answer.  The obvious one that comes to mind on Opening Day is to insert Brandon Nimmo in centerfield and have him assume the role given his strong OBP and high walk rate.  He’s not a speed demon by any means, but he’s quick enough that he’s not going to hurt you on the basepaths as he once stole 14 bases in a minor league season.

The problem with this approach is it’s a band-aid while Michael Conforto continues to heal.  Once he’s ready to go, Nimmo assumes his roles as a 4th/5th outfielder.  Hopefully gone are the days of Jose Reyes in that role with Asdrubal Cabrera being paid to play 2nd base.  What to do, what to do…

To me the answer is pretty obvious, but I’ve been beaten down by the Terry Collins approach of the last seven years.  During his minor league career Amed Rosario had seasons in which he posted OBP numbers of .374 and .367 as he hit the upper levels of the minors.  I can understand babying him a bit in the beginning of the season without putting the additional pressure of asking him to lead off on day one.  However, I think the makings are there for a unique lefty/righty, leadoff/8th place role. 


Since the team doesn’t face that many left handed starting pitchers, you have the opportunity to ease Rosario into what should become his long term role by inserting him once a week or so in the leadoff position in the lineup.  Juan Lagares would then take over Rosario’s customary 8th place position assuming Nimmo continues to struggle a bit against lefties and Callaway adopts a CF platoon. 

This suggested lineup combination would allow Rosario to get a taste of what’s necessary to do to set the table and perhaps help force him into greater pitch selectivity resulting in more walks.  Furthermore, if it works, then you have a long term solution for that role.  Reports are already out that the plan is to have Juan Lagares lead off in the interim until Michael Conforto is ready, then having Conforto take over that function upon his return.


While there’s a certain school of thought that dictates you put your best hitter up first to allow him to maximize the number of at-bats he gets in a game, tradition says that your middle-of-the-order hitters should indeed hit in the 4/5/6 slots.  Certainly Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes are part of that triumvirate.  If, defying expectations, Adrian Gonzalez regains his former All-Star form, then he’s certainly in that conversation as well.  The slow footed-Bruce and Gonzalez wouldn’t be considered in the leadoff role, and Cespedes is the only righty.  Therefore it’s understandable that some would conjecture that Conforto gets the nod.

However, if you look at Conforto’s admittedly small baseball resume, he’s a plodding baserunner as well, never having stolen more than 3 bases in a full season.  However, if baserunning isn’t the priority, he sports a minor league career OBP of an eye-popping .404.  That’s something to consider. 


Juan Lagares does have some speed.  He stole 13 bases during that 2014 season for which he was rewarded with his current contract.  In the minors he’s stolen as many as 25 in a season, so he’s certainly not going to hurt you on the basepaths.  The problem with him at the major league level has been getting onto first in order to take advantage of his speed.  Over the equivalent of three full seasons he’s walked a paltry 81 times.  That’s astonishingly bad and his .257 batting average has resulted in a major league career OBP under .300.  Putting him into the lineup has merit for what he can do with his arm and his glove but there’s no reason a sensible person would want him to lead off.   

Of course, now there's a wildcard entrant into this equation -- Todd Frazier.  While most clubs would not consider putting a low average slugger in the leadoff slot, that's exactly what the Mets did the majority of the time with Curtis Granderson.  In many ways, Frazier is a mirror image of Granderson on the offensive side of the equation.  He gets on base at a surprisingly decent clip despite fighting to stay over the Mendoza line.  It wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for him to be considered for the same non-standard role Granderson held, but he's probably better suited to breaking up the trio of lefty sluggers slated to be in the lineup (when Conforto returns).

So what’s your answer to this role?  I stand by my suggestion of easing Rosario into the role against lefties and thus open up two possibilities for when Conforto returns.  May the better man win.  

22 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Nice breakdown. I agree with that approach, Reese.

Hopefully, Rosario's pitch recognition homework this off season will result in at least a .330 OBP this year. With his speed, he'd be a very solid lead off hitter once he is fully broken in.

Mets offense to me has speed flaws and could be a little better in on base %, but I am quite happy with it.

Stay healthy, everyone - and we could have a really good season.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

Morning.

Frankly, this team doesn't have a lead-off hitter.

I hope that Rosario can earn it someday but I don't expect this kind of pressure to be put on his shoulders on opening day.

My guess is Lagares, Bruce, and Cespedes will be the opening day outfield, so it can't be Nimmo.

Speed, the ability of taking a pass, and putting the ball in play are the three requirements of a leadoff hitter. Thus, OBP is important.

I would take this a month at a time.

My guess right now is that the powers to be are holding back on informing all of us what the real ETA on Conforto is. He hasn't even thrown a ball yet.

Give the job to Lagares in April.

Zozo said...

I would put Amad right up to the front of the order (1st or 2nd) because you are making him fail by putting him up 8th. They are going to pitch around him with no protection behind him, give him his best chance right from the beginning.

I still think making a trade for Grienke and Chris Owings would best suit our needs. I believe that Arizona wants from out of Grienkes contract, so i would propose that we trade Cabrera, Ramos, Harvey and Lagares. That way we will only be adding about $3 million this year and we take the bulk of his contract minus Lagares’s pay for next 2 out of 3 years. Plus after this year we have so much money coming off the books as well.

Then i would put
Owings up first at second base,
Rosario 2nd
Conforto 3rd

Nice young speedy core for the next few years

Mack Ade said...

Am I wrong or is this team getting 'older' which was the main thing many of us complained about Sandy and Terry in the past?

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo is a radical thinker....nice!

Mack, with Frazier just going to be here for his age 32 and 33 seasons, I am not that concerned. Granderson's 4 years STARTED at 33. And for all you know, he could be traded away at some point in 2019. Frazier is also, what, 3 or so years younger than the soon-to-retire David Wright.

And oldie Gonzalez is here only as long as he re-taps into his DNA and plays like an above average 1B - if he falters at all and Smith gets hot, AG gets traded or released and Smith will be ready to step right in.

If and when that happens, 1st base age will drop about 13 years.

Cabrera is slowing a bit, but played well last year and is not old yet.

This team could contend if healthy, so it is good to have experienced, seasoned guys that won't have to learn on the job as much as if they got more seasoning down in the minors.

Reese Kaplan said...

Well, the lightning-in-a-bottle signing of Adrian Gonzalez tips the scales towards Geritol...as does Jose Reyes...Swarzak is older than Reed, Frazier is about the same as Walker. Everyone else retained is a year older. The only blood appears to be Amed Rosario since Dom Smith is slated for AAA. If Nimmo gets a look as a starter, there's that.

However, Mack, you too seem to have been beaten down by Terry Collins into thinking younger players cannot rise to a challenge and must, therefore, be set up for failure batting 8th.

Unknown said...

Nimmo had a 380ish obp he should be the leadoff hitter until Conforto returns.Rosario with his horrid obp should hit 8th until he shows improvement.

bgreg98180 said...

True

bgreg98180 said...

As long as Nimmo produces offensively, I would favor him over Lagares.

Cespedes above avg range in LF helps limit the difference between Nimmo and Lagares's defensive range

TexasGusCC said...

This is a great article, and what it brings out is what we're used to and what a smart manager would do. We have been trained to expect all the "name guys" to be in their proper places. However, a smart manager looks at the whole picture and not just the parts that everyone else is talking about.

If Callaway really has autonomy, Bruce will be at first base and Nimmo will be in RF. Maybe not opening day, but 75-80% of the time. It really becomes a Nimmo vs. AGone discussion, and with both being minimum salary guys, the Front Office doesn't care. Nimmo in RF is better than Bruce, and Bruce at 1B should be about equal to AGone. In the lineup, Nimmo fits better.

I write this with the assumption that AGone will continue his career slide in spring training. Should he rip the cover off the ball, then we could make an adjustment to our thinking and put either Lagares or Rosario at the top, probably Lagares. However, the fountain of youth stories will be Gone if AGone is dragging a .230 batting average in March.

Unknown said...

You want a guy with a career .290 obp leading off? LOL!

Unknown said...

So two on base sinkhole at the top of the lineup, great idea.

Reese Kaplan said...

The A-Gone signing this year reminds me of the Bobby Abreu signing in the past...guys who were once good could possibly be good again, but the likelihood is razor thin.

Reese Kaplan said...

My thinly veiled slap at the previous manager is there because he put Juan Lagares into the leadoff position for 85 games. How did he do? He batted .249, OBP of .295 and OPS of .644. He hit 2 HRs and drove in 24 over 369 ABs. About the ONLY positive is that he had 15 SBs during that trial as a leadoff hitter but nothing else there suggests he's a good fit for this role.

TexasGusCC said...

Zozo, I like the trade but I’ll miss Lagares.

bgreg98180 said...

We all miss Lagares every year when he hits the disabled list

Herb G said...

Reese, i9nteresting approach, easing Amed into the leadoff spot. But like it or not, (and I do like it) Lagares & Nimmo will be splitting tome in CF and leading off. Give Amed time further down in the order to acclimate to MLB pitching. As he matures, he can be moved up in the order.

Zozo is getting very creative, but that 6 man deal is just not in the cards. If it were up to me, I would move Cabrera somehow. I know it couldn't be done last summer, but perhaps this is a new day. I am thinking to Texas as insurance in the event Odor has another disastrous season. Then I would trade for Josh Harrison, and play him at 2B and lead off. I believe that door is still open.

BTW, A-Gon is entering his age 36 season. Bobby Abreu, who you cited as an example, was a 20-20 player with a ,787 OPS in his age 36 season. (20 HRs, 24 SBs) If we gat anywhere near that production from Gonzalez, I will be ecstatic.

Anonymous said...

I believe with this new 2018 NYM roster thus far, there are even more possibilities than in recent prior seasons and much more depth as well, which is a very good thing to have. It means one or two starting eight player injuries will not be as decimating overall to the team's winning chances as before.

But do let the Spring Training games weigh enough input into who plays and bats where. After all, isn't that what it is for? In other words here, do not get ahead of yourself. Let things show you, then decide. Allow players to advantageously surprise you. That is how Championship teams are made my friends.

Age wise, the team is relatively well balanced I feel. Young, old, and the somewhere in between. Older players like Adrienne Gonzales and Mack Ade, could have huge step-back-up seasons in 2018. Their history aptly proves what they are capable of doing if they can stay healthy.

If say Dominic Smith came into camp "gangbusters" and in tremendous shape, don't rule him out by previous determination off-season. I concur with Zozo on his Greinke idea. It would be the cherry on top probably. OMG!, what a rotation that would be. My hands are shaking at this thought actually. Are we ready to go with six starters yet to save arms a little more Mr. Einstein?

Mack makes a good point on maybe the team relying too much on older players in the off season to fill holes. I love younger player competition in Spring Training to lessen that fact. But Cabrera is solid there, hits consistently and defends well, when willing to. Allow time to play this out and decide. It will take all 25 men to make it to the 2018 Playoffs!

Todd Frazier could have that terrific rebound batting average/homerun year this season I think. He's home and in front of his homies and family. It has an affect. He loves NY!

Brandon Nimmo is the guy I am watching and I believe in him. He reminds me of that small town guy, sort of at first an unnoticed player who arrives, digs in, then "BOOM!" shows the world just how good he really is as he goes on and grows. And he looks a little bit like "Woody" from Cheers too, my favorite old 80's show! Can't hurt, just smarter than Woody I bet.

On the recent Manager Collins' comments regarding his handling of his pitching staff the past few seasons...I just thought he managed them (much of the time) as if it were somehow the seventh game of the World Series and maybe under this Mets new manager the team will be more relaxed and natural. Natural is a great place to be when a player "has it" talent wise, and this team really does. I am pumped up and ready now!

My own little kid hero was superstar shortstop Buddy Harrelson. Man, could this guy play a sweet shortstop, poetry in motion. His book taught me how to play excellent "vacuum cleaner shortstop" and I love the guy for that. I wore number "three" as long as I played. It broke my heart to recently read about his health situation he is confronting like so many others are. Maybe this quick word of advice here could help...Gamma Wave Therapy is a new treatment that they are developing using flickering light. It interrupts the Alzheimer's situation somewhat and is being developed now. Saw this online today at the scientist.com. Still in testing phase, but definitely worth studying online for anyone interested.

Brain waves are the next line of many health issue therapies, including use upping Alpha Waves for Bi-Polar Disorder patients or anyone really suffering today with depression issues. Alpha waves promote calmness, creativity, intellectual development, peace and serenity...

Mack Ade said...

Thanks Anonymous for your "thoughts".

Anonymous said...

Mack Ade:

You are welcome my friend.

But best you too come into ST camp in good shape this season! No more late night doughnut hut extravaganzas until post 2018 season, alright? We are counting on you Mr. Ade if Cabrera gets upset playing second base and throws another hissy-fit. Then second is all yours!

Maybe it's that yellow hair dye? (Hmm) Just thought of that. Who knows. Could be.

Anonymous said...

One last thought...Tim Tebow!

Personally speaking, I kind of wish that Tim was maybe a catcher because having a homerun swing like he has and knowing how badly MLB lacks the real deal homerun catcher now, more than ever before since maybe like the 1960's. Even better than "The Chew Boy Bomber" Mike Jacobs circa 2005. Remember Jacobs and Wright back then? "The Bam Bam Boys" I tell ya'! Was a thrill to see. NY loves the homerun bombs!

The outfield here and now is getting kind of crowded, especially when Michael Conforto returns from his shoulder injury. But like I have said here before, shoulder injuries can be tricky and difficult to predict when a player can come back fully. It's sort of like a hamstring pull. You think you are ready to go full throttle but you are not. It's one of those type injuries.

I like this guy Tim Tebow. There are only five men left in this country (I believe, well maybe four) who can walk the walk. Tim's one. The rest of us are basically all pondscum of one kind or another really. Let's be honest.

So this thought...

Tim Tebow competes for not only an outfield position, but also first base. I really do believe with enough game at bats and playing time in the field this season, that Tim Tebow can and will reach his true baseball potential.

Yes, he is an older rookie. But he really never got that hurt playing football or being on the Jimmy Fallon Show. Right? So he is in excellent shape for a long professional baseball career now. No doughnut hut extravaganzas there. The guy is like a Navy Seal!

Tim Tebow is not only a fabulous promoter of this NYM organization but also this MLB sport. I could honestly see him being a GM (or owner for that matter) down the road after his playing days are over. The guy is exceedingly smooth in not only the way he speaks, the things he says, but also the sheer excitement he can create everywhere he goes.

Go Tebow! Go Gators!



Anonymous said...

Mack:

For awhile Brandon Nimmo was sort of reminding me of a long ago outfielder in physical appearance. But I could not make the connection, until now.

So...Maybe you can guess who?

My only clue, both hit lefty.
We are talking way back, 40-50 years like Mack.

Look closely, especially facially.

Also:

I like an idea someone had earlier (TexasGusCC) in posting of an outfield of LF Cespedes, CF Conforto (when back whole), and RF Nimmo. Then having Bruce on first base. It does make some good sense. Batting order maybe being: 1. Nimmo 2. Cabrera 3. Conforto 4. Cespedes 5. Frazier 6. Bruce 7. Rosario 8. Plawecki. But the team is pretty loaded now with good talent and they do have really good alternatives this season as well. Can't complain there!

Them there are some power bats Jeffro!