Reese Kaplan -- Planning for a Disabled Starter

It’s taken awhile for the Mets to come around but there are numerous reports out now that the front office is now monitoring the market for starting pitchers.  I’ve advocated doing so all year because the health issues of the past FEW years has suggested the tried and true philosophy of hoping and praying for no one ever hitting the DL is not a particularly effective strategy.

I think the Mets dodged a huge bullet (no pun intended) when Big Sexy signed a minor league deal with the Rangers.  There was nothing in his performance last year to indicate that he’d be a net positive at the major league level anymore.  Yes, his oversized personality was stuff of Mets legend, but for once I’d like to see the club put winning ahead of showmanship and jersey sales.  (Sorry, Tom, yes that was a dig at you-know-who.)

I was reading the Mets are looking at the so-called second tier of pitchers including Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas and Jaime Garcia.  Right off the bat, I think they would be quite hesitant about Garcia who has battled his own durability issues over the years.  His career ERA is a respectable 3.69 but if you look lately it’s not been that good.  In an abbreviated 2015 he put up a 10-6 record with a 2.43 ERA but only appeared in 20 games.  Around that he’s had seasons of 4.12, 4.67 and a combined 4.41 for three teams last year.   His control is not particularly strong of late either with a large number of baserunners allowed.  He is just going to be 31 and is left handed, but results are what matters and the last few years they’ve not been particularly good.

The other lefty in the mix is elder statesman Jason Vargas who once wore a Mets uniform for 2 games all the way back in 2007.  He’s had a fairly solid career that included an All Star appearance last year for the first time based on a strong first half.  He plummeted for the rest of the year, finishing with 4.16 ERA nearly identical to his career mark of 4.17.  What makes him somewhat more appealing than Garcia is his durability, his consistency at a 4^th/5^th starter level and the fact as he enters his age 35 season he’s not likely going to have as much leverage in terms of a long-term commitment.  Vargas was paid $8.5 million last year but his age, his second half collapse and the current state of the free agent, ummm, inactivity all weigh against him.  He could probably be had for $8 million on a one year deal. 

I’ve written in praise of Lance Lynn in the past.  In somewhat unheralded fashion he’s posted some VERY nice numbers for St. Louis.  For his career he’s 72-47 with just a 3.38 ERA.  He’s only going to be 31, so he’s probably after the security of a multi-year contract.  He underwent TJS which necessitated him missing all of 2016, but he came back with a very respectable 11-8, 3.43 record last year.  With more time to recuperate he should be back on track for an uptick in performance.  Although he does walk more than you’d like, he limits the number of hits for a career WHIP of 1.288 which is pretty good.  Perhaps the Mets fans would take to him as Big Sexy II, since he stands 6’5” and weighs in at 280.  His last two seasons under the arch paid him $7.5 million so he’s probably looking for $12 million or more for three to five years.

Alex Cobb is another notable starter buried in relative obscurity in Tampa for his career.  He also missed an entire season – 2015 – with TJS, but has bounced back nicely.  He’s not a power pitcher who’s going to rack up better than a strikeout per IP, but he limits the walks and for his career has put together a 48-35 record with a 3.50 ERA.  Going into his age 30 season he’s also going to want a long-term deal which is probably not what the Mets want (though they do stand to lose Matt Harvey at year’s end to free agency).  Cobb only earned $4.5 million last year for the Rays, so even if he commanded a similar raise as Lynn, you’re looking at $9 million per year which is certainly more to the Mets’ liking. 

There are some other names out there that might warrant some consideration who are probably on the outer fringes of the third tier, including Jeremy Hellickson, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolaso, Andrew Cashner and Chris Tillman.

Some veterans who might warrant minor league invitations, including Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, R.A. Dickey, Bud Norris, Mat Latos, Kyle Kendrick and Henderson Alvarez. 

Of this group, I’d like to see them make a run at Cobb, but figure Vargas is more compatible with the front office’s standard MO.  I’ve not heard much buzz anywhere about Cashner but he might be worth an extended look as well.  He put put a 4.6 WAR season despite an 11-11 record at $10 million for the Rangers last year.  He’s just going to be 31 so I would assume he’s looking to cash-in despite not finding takers. 

If the Mets actually do add a starting pitcher, who is your preference?