2/17/18

Reese Kaplan -- Their Numbers are Dwindling...


At the risk of being politically incorrect, people of a certain age remember the childhood song, “Ten little Indians” in which you counted down the remaining ones available.  That song ran through my head when on Thursday all of the sudden there began to be some movement in the logjam of free agents who had yet to land a job.

First came word that Yu Darvish would be replacing Jake Arrieta in Chicago.  Then Andrew Cashner signed with Baltimore (who needs all the pitching help they can get) for 2 years and $16 million.  Then Jaime Garcia signed a one-year deal north of the border at the same annual rate -- $8 million.  Eduardo Nunez apparently has a deal in place pending a physical with the Red Sox.

Several stories arose about the Mets’ interest in Jason Vargas with his ties to Dave Eiland (and his left handedness).  He worked for what looked like a bargain price of $10 million last year based his All-Star worthy first half during which he pitched to a 12-3 record and a sparkling 2.62 ERA.  Considering he finished at 18-11 and 4.16 that was a pretty steep cliff over which he plummeted.  Considering his career ERA is 4.17, you got what you paid for – an innings eater with mediocre stuff who had a lot of luck on BABIP during his age 34 half-season.  The question is whether his second half disaster is indicative of an age-related decline or simply the law of averages catching up to him.  Assuming it’s the latter and he’s still got something in the tank, is that what the Mets need?  Yes, they could benefit from anyone healthy and at least league average in performance.  The front office would love to pick up someone without draft pick and international pool money attached to his selection.  However, is the best choice? (Reports surfaced on Friday it was a done deal for $15 million).


As much as I hate to admit it, he may represent one of the best of what’s left.  The roll of available starting pitchers has shrunk considerably and once you pass the three big names still on the board – Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb – the pickings are mighty slim.  You have some elder statesman like R.A. Dickey and John Lackey who might want one last hurrah.  It’s certainly within Sandy Alderson’s DNA to try to grab someone of that ilk on a short-term deal. (Remember what everyone thought when he signed Bartolo Colon?)

After that it’s mostly injury reclamation projects like Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz and Chris Tillman or more mediocre innings eaters that would include Trevor Cahill, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Jeremy Hellickson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey (sorry, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit), and Anibal Sanchez. 

There’s been some speculation that when Jimenez was under Callaway’s tutelage in Cleveland he turned in his best-ever season with a 13-9 record, a 3.30 ERA and fanning well over 1 per inning.  For his career he owns a 4.34 ERA.  I’m wondering if a healthy but erratic Jimenez is a better bet than Vargas because when he’s good, he’s significantly better.  If a reunion with Callaway and new pitching coach Dave Eiland can help him rediscover his mojo, perhaps he could turn in another one of those five seasons in which he held his ERA well under 4.00?  He’s coming off a particularly disastrous season, so that should make the bean counters in the front office very happy as it will serve to depress his price considerably from the $13.5 million he was paid for his 6.81 ERA last year in Baltimore.

Of course, there is another approach they could take – one which did not serve them particularly well last year.  You could entrust one of Chris Flexen, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo or Rafael Montero to be your extra starter if none of the above are to your liking.  Personally I’m not ready to give up on any of them (not even Montero).  I’d also throw Pitcher of the Year Corey Oswalt into the mix as well. 

However, if you can get some of the remaining crop of available free agents to ink minor league deals with invitations to big league camp it would serve two purposes.  First, you would see if under the tutelage of two pitching experts they can resurrect their careers.  Second, it may serve as a little incentive to the younger players (just like Adrian Gonzalez is to Dom Smith) to get their game up to the next level. 

So, if you’re the GM and have allegedly limited funds to spend, what pitcher (if any) would you pursue?  

13 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I stand by my statement yesterday.

Thor and deGrom are a lock for the OD rotation. Past that, the projection was, in no particular order, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler.

1. Something much be wrong here. One (or more)of these guys much not have been showing the coaches that they were ready to step BACK up. Remember... they are all coming off a major injury.

2. A replacement of either Lugo, Gsellman, or Montero must not have been wetting the lips of the coaches either.

For these reason, the Mets added Vargas.

IMO

Dove said...

Somebody also floated out a quick story/blurb about Mets wanting an extended look this spring at Corey Oswalt.
Might not mean anything. They said that last year about PJ Conlon but still interesting.
This new coaching staff has zero allegiance to the golden/broken arms.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, my guess is you are right. Tommy Milone types and even others need not apply. We want competence, not excuses. If Zach can pitch well, fine...if not, see ya. Same for Harvey.

I do think Matz and Thor will die for Comeback Player of the Year.

And Ernest, if Oswalt can get it done, he deserves his chance...seniority is for government jobs, we want winners.

Reese Kaplan said...

Rookies not summarily dismissed or set up to fail, but actually getting real chances??? Pinch me, I must be dreaming!

TexasGusCC said...

Thomas, I loved it! Does Alderson?

Tom Brennan said...

TexasGusCC, I think Sandy does get it.

Ken Davidoff gave him a strong off season grade in the Post...I largely agree. It will be a season of continuing adjustments... hopefully much better ones than in 2017. Health is this team's Job One.

Zach has frankly been David Wright II the past 3 years...just go about your business, work and perform...cream rises, turds sink. Be a performer, not a too-often-injured excuse-maker. Each game counts, each season counts.

This team has enough tools...although my brother teXted me that Conforto might not return until the All Star break. Hopefully that is total BS and he has it wrong.

Mack Ade said...

Tom/Texas -

I have to side with Reese here.

I no longer have any faith in Sandy Alderson when it comes who to put on the field.

nd if he did, Oswalt would never get a chance this year... we still have Lugo, Gsellman, and Montero (was he DFA'd?) to deal with first and we're all forgetting about Flexen.

Mike Freire said...

Semi-related side note.........who will be the second lefty in the pen? Who will lead off??

Tom Brennan said...

I'm a lefty, Mike, sitting by the phone.

TexasGusCC said...

How this from deep in left field? Can Matz and Wheeler split the season between on in the bullpen and one in the rotation for the first half, then they switch? That will keep both of them around 140 innings as they come back from injuries.

Tom Brennan said...

Ya never know!

Reese Kaplan said...

I'd have rather seen them put money into a guy like Tony Watson than Jason Vargas.

Tom Brennan said...

Interesting ...you may be right, Reese.