Mike Friere - So, What Are Wins Above Replacment?

In an effort to make "all that is old, new again", I have resurrected an old series of articles that I put together in a previous "Mack's Mets" lifetime that focus on the new wave of statistical analysis that has shaped baseball scouting and player rankings.  Some would refer to them as "Sabermetrics" and others would argue that it isn't necessarily new anymore.

To keep things somewhat fresh, I will go over a new statistic each week and then I will attempt to relate that measure to our favorite team and one or more of our current players to see how we rate, so to speak. In the previous installment of this series we took a look at the Pythagorean Win Theorum and how it can be used to estimate a team's success based on run differential.  In this, the last installment of this series, let's focus on a comprehensive statistic that is commonly referred to as "wins above replacement" or WAR.

In short, WAR is a baseball statistic developed to capture a player's contributions to his team.  A player's WAR is the number of additional wins his team has achieved, compared to what would have occurred if the player in question were substituted for "replacement player".  Not to pick on anyone, but a player like Matt den Dekker is a reasonable example of a replacement level player.

Individual WAR values are calculated from the "estimated number of runs contributed by a player through offensive actions such as batting and base running, and runs denied to opposition teams by the player through defensive actions like fielding and pitching".   So, the statistic is useful for analyzing any ball player on a team's roster and it is also an effective comparison tool when discussing multiple players, etc.

Actually figuring out the WAR computation is extremely complex and it uses values derived from other statistics, such as wOBA and UZR.  In an effort to keep this article interesting, I will skip over the various computations and leave it up to each of you to research them on your own, if you prefer.

Skipping the math, the resulting WAR figure is expressed in relation to zero, with most players hovering within a few points (positive or negative) of that figure.  It has also become one of the more "mainstream" statistics and it is displayed on most statistical websites as readily as batting averages and the like.

Finding the figure is easy enough, but what does it really mean?   Like most things in life, it all comes back to the basics and in baseball terms, that means scoring more runs then your opponent.  As stated above, runs can be influenced in a positive manner and/or negative manner.  If you are a good hitter, but your defense and base running are below average due to a lack of speed, then you would expect positive value at the plate, but negative value elsewhere.   All of the different values are added together and the end result is expressed as WAR.

Additional runs contributed to a team lead to additional wins with 10 runs estimated to be equal to roughly one win. Therefore, a 1.0 WAR value for a player signifies a total contribution of roughly 10 more runs than a replacement level player over a specified period of time.

For example, in 2017, Andrelton Simmons (SS) contributed a season total of 7.14 WAR to the Angels cause, which was good enough for eighth in all of MLB.  Included in the impressive total was 4.17 WAR on defense alone, which was the best mark in baseball.  So, while he may have been a bit above average with the bat and on the base paths, his spectacular defensive abilities pushed his overall impact into the top ten players for 2017.

In case you were wondering, Jacob deGrom and Michael Conforto both had 4.4 WAR figures in 2017, with MC's generated in only 440 at bats (if he played a full season last year, his WAR would have been much higher).

For some additional perspective, Barry Bonds holds the all time record for a full season (in the modern era) with a whopping 12.36 WAR in 2001, which may or may not have been influenced by other factors.  Regardless, adding over 12 wins to a team's win total in one season is astounding. 

Going back a few more years, a pitcher named Pud Galvin (that's a fun name) in 1888 produced an other worldly 20.47 WAR, but the game was a bit different then.  Oh and the career leader for all time is none other then Babe Ruth who was worth 182.5 WAR to his respective teams, which is just insane.

In closing, it is helpful to know that WAR is a product of run creation and run suppression, with it's ultimate expression an attempt at relating run differential to team wins.  Obvious star caliber players are easy to identify, like Mike Trout who is routinely among the league leaders in most statistical categories, to include WAR.

However, were you surprised to see Andrelton Simmons' name in the Top 10?

In my opinion, the true value of WAR is that it captures a player's "all around" value, without placing too much focus on one area of the player's game.