Reese Kaplan -- Rainy Day Ruminations

Rainouts have a way of making a person become analytical and introspective since there are fastballs making a resounding “Thwap!” in the glove, nor are there any balls clearing the walls, nor are there any diving stops, bases stolen nor runners trying to avoid getting gunned down at the plate.  In this frame of reference, I started pondering some of the questions facing the Mets this young season (and some of the chosen answers). 

Is Adrian Gonzalez a net positive or negative for the team?  His glove is for real and his clubhouse presence is far more positive than had been projected.  He’d been a distraction according to former teammates and management personnel, but thus far that aspect of his place on the roster is surprisingly good.  The bat, however, was heavily suspect both off last season’s injury-riddled year and a very weak spring.  He started off well for the first week plus, but quickly has become fairly useless.  He’s batting a mere .239 but has hit 2 HRs and driven in 11.  All told, I suspect it’s his job to lose until at least the All-Star break. 

After all, they’re willing to tolerate the much more expensive pair of corner outfielders – Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes – who are contributing even less.  Now Jay Bruce does have the excuse of the plantar fasciitis issue which has been making it uncomfortable for Bruce to stand, let alone play baseball at a professional level.  To date he’s logged a paltry .194 with just 1 HR and 8 RBIs.  Considering how well both Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo have been playing there’s no reason to keep him in the lineup.  In fact, you could make a case he should be strictly resting on the DL until the condition gets under control.  We’d hoped we’d seen the last of the previous regime’s mismanagement of injuries and propensity to play short-handed.

Cespedes is the bigger puzzle.  His RBI production has been solid – 18 to lead the team and tied for third in the league.  He’s also tied for the team lead in HRs with 4.  However, then it gets concerning.  He’s hitting under .200 and threatening to approach 200 strikeouts on the year.  We’ve watched him dominate before so it’s unlikely a long-term concern.  However,  right now you have to question what it’s going to take to get him right again.

Michael Conforto came back much sooner than anyone could have imagined given the Mets’ dismal luck with injuries but now people are wondering if he was rushed.  The 2017 All-Star is hitting just .213 with 1 HR and 5 RBIs.  He’s providing a .387 OBP, trailing only starters Asdrubal Cabrera and Todd Frazier. 

Finally, let’s take a moment to celebrate the backup outfielders – Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo.  Lagares is hitting .379 and playing his usual highlight reel defense.  Nimmo is hitting .333 and sporting an otherworldly OBP of .533.  Given the struggles of Bruce, Cespedes and Conforto, it shouldn’t hurt the club to insert either of these two into the lineup more often. 

Let’s not talk about the catching situation.  It’s too depressing right now.  The only hope is that Sandy Alderson is actually attempting to address the issue and isn’t simply planning on treading water (or hanging onto a life preserver while sharks circle) until the still-unproven Kevin Plawecki returns.

On the positive sides of the ledger are the quick starts of both Todd Frazier and Asdrubal Cabrera.  No one could have predicted Frazier would be at .258.  While that doesn’t sound like much, the lower end of the .200s has been the norm lately for the flashy fielding slugger.

Asdrubal Cabrera, however, came from completely out of left field.  He’s 2^nd in the league in batting (behind the even more surprising Atlanta Brave John Flaherty), tied with Cespedes with 4 HRs and has not proven to be a distraction at all after his 2017 demands and antics.  For what he’s being paid, he’s looking to be an early season super bargain. 

Amed Rosario is having some growing pains and is showing that he’s still struggling to make the adjustment to the major leagues.  He’s shown some great athleticism in the field, but he’s hitting just .250, hasn’t hit a homer and, more surprisingly, hasn’t stolen a base.  When Mickey Callaway inexplicably started Jose Reyes at shortstop in Saturday’s game after having gone hitless on the whole season and was shockingly rewarded with a three-hit performance, that’s got to put even more pressure on the youngster who already may be pressing. 

On the pitching side of the ledger, you know what you have with Jacob deGrom and with Noah Syndergaard.  Steve Matz has shown flashes of brilliance (including retiring 10 straight hitters after a shaky first in his last start).  Opposing hitters are struggling to just a .203 batting average against him.  If he can stay healthy then he’s likely going to be a quality starter.  Somewhat shockingly, Zack Wheeler is doing even better with a 2.77 ERA and a .196 BAA.  That spelled bad news for Matt Harvey who Callaway has temporarily banished to the bullpen.  Jason Vargas slots into the rotation and likely still unused Corey Oswalt heading back to Las Vegas to make room for him on the roster.

Where there is some concern is with their most expensive reliever, AJ Ramos.  He has been in the midst of the two recent bullpen implosions that victimized deGrom and the Mets.  On the surface it doesn’t look too bad with a 4.00 ERA and a .071 batting average against.  However, when you peruse the other columns you see some disturbing numbers.  In just 9 IP he’s already walked 9 batters while striking out 8.  Obviously putting on a free baserunner per inning is a recipe for disaster (as Mets fans have seen). 

Jeurys Familia has been mostly good Saturday night notwithstanding.  In 12 IP he’s struck out 15, held batters well under .200 and has a 1.50 ERA to go along with 8 saves.  Unfortunately he’s also walking too many, 6 so far or 4.5 per 9 IP.  That is a similar formula to what’s been plaguing Ramos.

Where they have had some very pleasant surprises are with the starters-turned-relievers – Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo – as well as unheralded Paul Sewald.  While they’re hitting Lugo a little bit more at .237, he’s still 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA.  Gsellman has been even better with a 2-0 record, a .196 BAA and a 2.19 ERA.  Unlike the would-be closers, he’s enjoying a more than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  Sewald has only pitched 8.1 innings yet has 12 Ks to just a single walk.  His BAA is just .148 and he sports a 2.16 ERA.

Perhaps most surprising are the struggles of Jerry Blevins.  He’s been pretty much automatic ever since joining the ballclub but he has a very ugly 12.27 ERA in his 3.2 IP as a situational LOOGY.  He’s walked 4 and struck out 3 while allowing opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of .375. 

Thus far most of what Mickey Callaway has done has been met with great admiration and appreciation but perhaps nothing more so than the culture of accountability.  The recent announcement of Matt Harvey being bumped from the rotation sends a very positive message to the team – produce and you play, don’t produce and we will find someone who can.  That’s a refreshing change from the last regime’s policy of stubbornly staying the course no matter what.  The contrasting results in the won-lost column prove it.