Good
morning.
Long term
Mack’s Mets readers will remember that I do this every off-season. I breakdown
who is left on this team going into the off season, prior to both the next
International signing period and the draft pick. It al starts here and, as we
will show you as we go through this, position by position, things are greatly
improving in the lower levels. The Mets should become a dominant organization
in pipeline talent in three years max, if they don’t screw it up.
The first
position I will look at is first base. It will project where I believe players
will open the season.
Here’s what
we have and their stat line for 2019:
Jay Bruce Mets .223/.310/.370/.680
9-HR
Wilmer Flores Mets .267/.319/.417/.736 11-HR
Dominic Smith Mets .224/.255/.420/.675 5-HR
AAA .258/.328/.380/708 6-HR
Peter Alonso AAA .260/.330/.407/.737 21-HR
AA .314/.440/.573/1.012 15-HR
Joey Terdoslovich AA .308/.368/.472/840 12-HR
Jeremy Vasquez A+ .264/.342/.393/.735 4-HR
A .289/.383/.437/820 6-HR
Chase Chambers A - - - -
Low-A .281/.350/.392/741 3-HR
Low-A open
Gavin Garay K-Port .329/.364/.586/949 5-HR
(70-AB)
Anderson
Bohorquez GCL .250/.325/.357/683 0-HR
Wilfred
Astudillo DSL have not played yet
Here’s my
spin…
1. The Mets
will not start 2019 with Peter Alonso on the
parent roster. My guess, he will be held up until mid-April when the team can
be accredited with one more year of control.
2. I can’t
predict if Alonso will be traded in the off-season. I would. I think he has his
best value as a chip for a multi-tool prospect that plays another critical
position.
3. If he isn’t
traded, he will most likely then become, at worse, a Mets first baseman that
will split time with someone like Wilmer Flores. At this point, I have no idea who will play first in Syracuse after mid-April. Patrick Kivlehan chose free agency and signed with Arizona, leaving an opening here.
4.
Either way… Bruce… Smith… Wilmer… Alonso. This position is filled for, at least, 2020.
5. 30-yr. old Terdoslovich is a AAAA player at best, and will fill the slot left open by Patrick Kivlehan (free agent) in Syracuse. It create a fast
track decision for Jeremy Vasquez. Could happen,
but then you have no one on the roster for both St. Lucie and Brooklyn (Chase Chambers will play Columbia). Lots of options
here.
6. Look for the
Mets to draft a new first baseman in the first 10 rounds and slot him into
either St. Lucie or Brooklyn.
7. Vasquez is
considered as your only other potential prospect material at this position.
8. The next big
question is whether or not Gavin Garay is for
real. The 21-year old former 2017 26th
round JC pick started out just fine at Kingsport (70 at-bats, .329) but then
went down with blurred vision. I have him either going back to Tennessee for a
third season or moving on to Brooklyn.
Conclusion:
To me, the future of first base looks fine.
The odds-on favorite to be the
future here is Alonso, but I’m not ready to give up on Dom yet. We know that he’s
hands down a better defensive option. I hope he also realizes that he needs to
come to camp ready for a heads-on battle against his good buddy Peter. There
simply is no future for Smith in the outfield. This is a battle to the end and
the end probably is around April 17th.
I also think there is a good
chance that this battle will never happen. The Mets have an opportunity to
build a trade package for Miami catcher J.T. Realmuto and
the one-dimensional Alonso would be a great lead chip here (I suggested that Seth Lugo be part of this deal also).
Smith would not be enough for a Realmuto trade. You would have to throw in probably two other players, one as tested and talented as Seth Lugo.
The Mets must be careful here.
There isn’t much left in the pipeline at this position.
It’s Alonso or Smith taking you
deep into the next decade.
Rating: A
Rating: A
18 comments:
I'd sooner do Alonso and a minor league starter (or one of Sandy Alderson's many failed, hard throwing relievers) .
I don't see a role for both Smith and Alonso simulraneously, especially with Bruce available as an option. Unless he gets off to a very hot start, I expect Smith to go upstate when Alonso arrives.
As for Wilmer, his likely salary in Arbi makes him a strong candidate for trade or non-tender. If the Mets don't want to go with kids like TJ, Cecchini and Guillorme in the utility role, I expect them to go with a bench-type veteran such as Desmond or someone similar.
What makes me nervous about Smith is his high K, low walk results. Pretty bad. I think Pete will be a far better overall 1B. If Alonso had as many career minor league ABs as Smith, instead of just half, he would have hit 60 this year
I was hoping the Mets would start the season with a Smith/Alonso "platoon" - Alonso gets the majority of at-bats, with Smith being reserved for certain right-handers and aggressive substitutions for first base defense.
I agree that Alonso may ultimately be trade fodder, but only if he is unable to develop into a defensively adept first baseman. The bat will play - if not here, than as a DH in the American League. I wouldn't want to trade him just yet.
Not a 1B, but Casey Stengel tied for 8th in MLB on base % (.404) in 1914. How 'bout that?
I would rather keep Alonso and sign one of the 2 main catchers in free agency Grandal or Ramos.
How about a Machado signing and then a package built around Rosario + for Realmuto then get to work on the BP. Alonso stays and splits 1st base with Dom let em fight it out. Gotta see first hand if his power will play in the bigs.
Zozo
No one was a bigger fan than I was when Grandal enterred pro ball. I knew he would develop into a ++ bat.
What I didnt anticipate him becoming this much of a defensive liability.
Sadly I would pass on him now.
Gary
Machado has told insiders that he would NEVER sign with this team
Mack, such is the disrepute of this organization to big stars.
Crap
"At least we have Syracuse."
Mack,
I think you under-credited Alonso with AAA OPS. While neither has good trade value, my guess is that Mets deal either Bruce or Smith, and pair the remaining guy with Alonso at 1B when he gets the call.
Love to get Machado and/or Realmuto but don't see either happening. Win the bidding for Wilson Ramos, and two of Britton, Familia, Robertson, Miller.
If the Mets activate Alonso in 2019, they will win the pennant. If they trade Alonso, the team they trade him to will win the pennant and I will give up on the Mets.
Not sure that Alonso's presence or lack thereof will be quite so dramatic (re Unknown), but I agree that he should be
kept in anticipation of the 2019 season and beyond.
Power is so hard to find and Pete has it in spades.
The Mets Banter Machine
Excellent post by Sir Reese Kaplan today on why a GM may want this Mets job, 08:00 hours and obviously up early with thoughts. Bravado Reese!
The 2019 NY Mets GM job (to me) is "the ultimate challenge" for any self-respecting potential GM. It has everything a GM would desire all in one. 1. First, it has no bullpen to speak of. A great place to start. 2. It does have need for two more homerun capable batters, one hopefully being first baseman Peter Alonso. 3. Although the starting rotation does have three excellent right-handed starters already, it does still sort of need one more quality younger starter added in to be phenomenal, with the fifth spot going to either Steven Matz or Corey Oswalt. 4. The team at present is young, maybe still arguably a bit raw (because of this) but the potential here with this younger core very much looking right on-track for 2019 and in a big way. Very, very few MLB teams can match this youthful new core the Mets have. For evidence, just look at the four top teams in the ALCS and NLCS this season. 5. The defense of the 2018 NY Mets team as a whole (I felt) vastly improved itself over the course of the 2018 season. It is getting very close to "being there", and not Peter Sellers movie either.
Hopefully, the 2019 NY Mets team could improve on these three areas: (A) Stealing and Running the bases more effectively. It has the horses now and certainly can. (B) The power batting end of offense. It has Alonso coming, maybe a homerun catcher if there is one out there. (C) The bullpen. It needs definite set-up and closer roles filled and defined, although I am very encouraged by Tyler Bashlor for one of these roles. To me, he grew the most in the bullpen over the course of 2018 season.
Once all accomplished it is Voila!
This 2019 NY Mets GM challenge is the very best type of challenge going for the right guy, because it has only a very few specific needs to concentrate on. In other words, it is not anywhere near a total rebuild like so many other MLB teams heading into the 2019 season are.
Personally, I liked Jim Duquette a lot on SNY this season, his baseball acumen, his Mets' overall analysis, and his ideas for improving the team as a whole. Jim (or someone like Jim even) I think would make a really good GM here. Someone with understanding, a direction, and a vision. I am just not certain who is out there really or who really relates well to this kind of a specific challenge.
Tonight's LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewskies Matchup
The Dodgers had the Brewskies on the ropes with blood dripping (so to speak) last night and did not put them away as they needed to.
Despite the advantage of starter Chacin on the Brewers mound tonight versus Ferris Buehler and His Day Off for the Dodgers of LA, I would buck the naysayers and hope that the Dodgers somehow win this seventh game in Milwaukee.
It is a close call though, too close to a bet for the wiser man.
Chacin was very good last outing, but the Dodgers showing up tonight have to deal with not only him, but the home field advantage and then rise above it. I think they can and hopefully will.
Maybe a better idea to buy Lotto though!
On Peter Alonso
Peter has finally developed and these type of true homerun batters come along like once every ten years here.
We all want a JT Realmuto to catch here. But so does every team in MLB basically, because of the horrendous draught of good young homerun catchers.
Let's play "what if" here for a moment...
Would a lineup potentially like this one below not be good enough for most Mets fans?
1B Peter Alonso/backup Dominic Smith and/or Jay Bruce
2B Jeff McNeil/backup Christian Colon or Wilmer Flores
SS Amed Rosario/backup Gavin Cecchini
3B Todd Frazier or my proposal of Michael Chavis from the Red Sox
LF Yoenis Cespedes or Jay Bruce
CF Brandon Nimmo/backup Juan Lagares
RF Michael Conforto/backup Jay Bruce
C Danny Jansen from the Toronto Jays of Blue/backup Kevin Plawecki
Just wondering out loud. To me? I like it.
The Mets theoretically (I guess) could land JT Realmuto. But at what cost is the real question. Like say, Gimenez, Dunn, Kay, D. Smith. Is this enough? Tough questions that only the Mets management will have to answer, if they want Realmuto.
Whereas Danny Jansen the Mets could theoretically acquire for maybe a little bit less. Jansen has some upsid still, is very young, and catches a pretty good game.
Tough call.
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