Playoffs - Rockies vs. Cubs

Good Morning, Mets’ fans.

I know that an article on the playoffs does not have much to do with our beloved “orange and blue”, but I would like to think that we are all baseball fans and that extends to enjoying the playoffs.

With that said, I would like to put together a series of playoff previews as the overall playoff cycle progresses.  I am not attempting to reincarnate “Jimmy The Greek” or to predict how the different match ups will go.  Instead, I will offer some basic statistics and attempt to show how they will likely affect the outcome of each set of games.

Let’s start with the “so called” first round of the playoff picture, which is also known as the Wild Card round.  I am not a fan of this format, since a one game playoff is hardly a series and it weakens the team that wins the game, as they progress into the Divisional Round.  But, what’s done is done, right?

Tuesday 10-02-18 @ 2000 HRS

Wrigley Field (Chicago)

Colorado Rockies (91-72) versus the Chicago Cubs (95-68)

One Game Playoff (Wild Card) with the winner advancing to the
Divisional Round against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Head to Head (2018) - series was tied 3-3 with each team winning 2 out of 3 on the
other team's field (both series were early in the year, so theses two teams have not seen each other in roughly FIVE months).

Head to Head (Wrigley Field - 2018) - the Rockies won 2 of 3 early season games on the road, with one of the contests a narrow Cubs victory, so it could have been a
Rockies sweep, too.

Last 10 contests (all) - both teams played solid baseball down the stretch (Cubs 6-4, Rockies 8-2), not including the "Game 163" contests that both clubs lost on Monday.  You wonder how each team will react emotionally to "losing" their respective divisions and being throw into a winner take all format like the Wild Card match up.

Pitching Matchup - interestingly enough, both scheduled starters (Jon Lester/Kyle Freeland) have only faced the opposition one time this year and it was on April 30th in Chicago. So, this match up will be a repeat of the regular season game listed above that the Cubs won 3-2. Both pitchers were solid in that ballgame, so the rematch should be interesting albeit with much more on the line this time.

Run Differential (season) - here is where things get a bit interesting, as the Cubs had a healthy positive run differential (+116) that matched their regular season record perfectly.  However, the Rockies only have a small positive run differential (+35) and they overachieved by six games over the course of the regular season. Paper tiger or late bloomer?

Fielding % (season) -  both teams were slightly above "league average" here (Rockies .988 and Cubs .985), with the Cubs committing a few more errors overall (87) when compared to the Rockies (74).

One Run Games (season) -  both teams had mixed records in one run ballgames, as well as in extra inning contests (Cubs 26-25 and 11-8, A's 26-15 and 5-6). However, Chicago played in a few more "close" contests that they pretty much split down the middle (51 versus 41).

Coaching Impacts - Chicago's manager (Joe Maddon) has a ton of managerial experience, both as an assistant (Angels) and as the man in charge (Tampa Bay, Chicago).  He has managed over 2,000 ballgames to include sixty-six playoff contests, that includes a championship so he is a formidable opponent. The Rockies counter with Bud Black, who had a long career as a player and he also has over 1,600 games managed between two different ballclubs (San Diego and Colorado). However, he has only managed in ONE playoff contest, so there is a clear difference in experience here. That does not include the difference in career winning percentages between the two, with Maddon well over .500 and Black a bit under the break even point.
                  
Comments -  This is an intriguing match up on multiple levels, especially with both teams coming off a loss yesterday in their respective tie breaker(s). A possible factor is that the Cubs played the tie breaker at home and will also host the Wild Card game, while the Rockies had to travel to Los Angeles for the tie breaker and now they are traveling to Chicago for this contest. It would not be a surprise to see them come out a bit flat and/or tired, but the win or go home nature of this game should help mitigate this a bit.

The key factor in this game, like most elimination contents, is the pitching match up.  I like Kyle Freeland and his is having a nice season. BUT, he is a young pitcher with very little "big game" experience under his belt.  Jon Lester, on the other hand, is the epitome of a "big game pitcher", as he has experienced that type of contest for multiple teams over the years that includes multiple championships.  I am not a betting man, but if you had to choose, which pitcher would you prefer?

There is also the experience factor in the dugout, with Joe Maddon having "been there and done that" when compared to his counterpart. In a close contest, towards the late innings could this be a deciding factor?

It wouldn't surprise me to see a similar contest to the one that these two teams played in late April (3-2 Cubs), but anything can happen in October, right?