10/12/18

Tom Brennan - SPORADIC THOUGHTS

10 comments

Tom Brennan - SPORADIC THOUGHTS

I last wrote a few weeks back that I would write sporadically, if at all, this off season.  A long LIRR train ride today got me thinking a bit, nothing profound, but here goes:

Jeff McNeil - one thing I love about looking up stats on baseballreference.com is they give you a 162 game projection. Jeff's terrific 63 game MLB rookie season debut projected out to this for 162 games:

638 PA, 579 AB, 90 R, 190 H, 28 2B, 15 3B, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 62 K, 18 of 21 SB, .329 AVG.

People I talk to about Jeff routinely throw in, "boy, he can really field, too."   Yep.

And people wonder if the second base position is not settled going into 2019?  Me? I sure think so.

Let me ask you this: would the Yankees have rather had Giancarlo Stanton in the line up for their recent failed BOSOX series, or Jeff McNeil?  "I choose door #2, Johnny."

Peter Alonso - the man who some want traded due to defensive deficiencies is a mere 5 for 8 with a HR and 4 RBI in his first 2 Arizona Fall League games.  
To me?  Our future bopping 1B, and darned soon, too. Amazingly, in 2018's regular season, his splits against lefty and righty pitchers were virtually identical. Don't believe me? Look it up, pal.

Andres Gimenez - where's the power, some say.  He homered (and walked) in his first AFL game, so that's where, friend.  He will be starting for the Mets in 2019, is how I see it, maybe on or around July 24.  Good date.  That date this season was when Jeff the Great McNeil debuted.  


Minor League Players Released - I am not sure if the Mets released more guys this year after the 2018 season than they usually do, but it was a lot.  
Me? Not surprised.  The teams in Columbia and St Lucie hit poorly, and most hitters released were only called hitters because they don't pitch, to be a bit blunt.  

The hitting for the Mets' 3 rookie teams was highly encouraging in 2018, though, vs. 2017, so my guess is the number of minors hitters released this time next year will be fewer.  "If they're good, I'm keepin' 'em, bro."

Some released minors pitchers had solid stats.  I did an article a few years back that showed the Mets releasing a large bunch of pitchers that year with collectively very solid stats. Why?
Presumably, the talent evaluators realized that those dudes lacked heat, and would hit fierce headwinds as they climbed any further. Darwin's theory apples to baseball, certainly...survival of the fittest. 

Considering that the guys released were not as good as the guys who pitched for the Mets in 2018, and that the 15 most "generous" bullpen guys in Queens combined for 227 innings and 184 runs allowed (7.30 runs per 9 innings), trust me:

The pitchers recently released would never be good enough to make the bigs.  

Oh, and 184 runs?  If you wanted to hold your opponents for the year to 4 runs per game (648), that 184 runs is 28% of that total - and that does not include the 10 relievers with ERAs below 5.00.  Fix the danged pen!

Message to Mets:
 
Darwin says draft power arms. That's his theory - mine, too.

Starters: with deGrom, Thor, Wheels, Matz, and Vargas/Lugo, do the Mets stand poised to enter 2019 with baseball's best starting rotation?  If not, whose rotation do you think is better? (I'm sticking with ours.  Of course, if this were the Yanks, they'd be looking to replace Vargas with Clayton Kershaw or some other such unknown.)


Whoops, my train just left Jamaica Station, just a few miles from Citifield.  The Manhattan Skyline (and loss of wireless service) looms ever larger.

So, it is time for Mr. Sporadic to sign off.  Until we sporadically meet again.

10 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

With another group of Mets fan friends a debate came up if you could work out some kind of top starter for Giancarlo Stanton trade given how soured the Yankees are on him. The issue is not making it happen. It's how to pay for him. His contract is insane and you could lock up a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper while retaining that said star pitcher. Now if they were talking about Aaron Judge...

Anthony Carnacchio said...

Alonso proving everyone wrong again

Mike Freire said...

I like the title of your post, Tom.

McNeil is my second baseman until proven otherwise......I know we will have to play musical chairs in the infield as time passes, but Jeff should be left alone at 2B, IMO.

I also like Pete's bat and I think it will overshadow his defensive limitations (I still like the Jeff Bagwell comparison).

Eventually, Gimenez takes over SS and Amed moves to 3B (late 2019 or 2020).

Infield solved for a bit, right?

Anonymous said...

Good Afternoon Fellas:

Infield set yes, until Mauricio is called upon and Rosario moves to CF.
I am still hoping the mets spend all there FA money on 4 players
Ramos to catch
Familia to pitch 8th or 9th
Kelvin Herrera tp pitch 8th or 9th
Zach Britton to pitch the 8th or 9th
I know but a shut down BP is just what this team has needed since 2007.
I would also like to see Scrooge McWilpon resign deGrom and Wheeler,to extensions. Let the lessons from the Mets past teach us we want DeGrom to retire as a Met.
Please make this possible
Enjoy your weekend guys

Steve

bill metsiac said...

I'm with you on all of that, Steve. I know that many Mets fans talk about "needs" all over, but I maintain that we have only 2--- the pen and Catcher--and I like your choices to fill them.

Good analysis by Tom. We need patience, which is sometimes in short supply. At the start, we might be a little short on RH power, but we should expect both Yo and Peter to be supplying that by mid-year. Speaking of Peter what has surprised me most about his strong AFL start is that he has 2 SB in 3 games. Who knew he could run?

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey gents, sorry I did not respond to you all earlier. Steve is my new GM. GREAT PLAN. I roll with that.

Bill, Alonso and McNeil will be lighting up the basepath..,and the scoreboard.

Anonymous said...

It's a long, long off season.

There will be all kinds of player personnel suggestions being bantered about. This is how it goes every year at this time. Some see this as fun, others very annoying. Whatever.

Maybe pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, for he is the dopey wizard guy and you know what that means for Dorothy.

Anonymous said...

On the Middle Infield

I just read a website that had the Mets pursuing Jonathon Villar. Not kidding. The Milwaukee guy.

I think the Mets are fine for 2019 at middle infield. Best to leave non-broken things alone. Could break it.

But I might sniff a new third baseman. Maybe think through a trade like involving maybe say Andres Gimenez to Boston for Michael Chavis. Could even extend it out and get righty reliever Brasier for the pen as well. Maybe in like a four player deal. Just thinking outloud, nothing more here. It depends on which way the team wants to go.

It could make sense because both Jeff McNeil and Amed Rosario were really only rookies this year, and I think they both did really well showcasing their talent and potential. These two will only improve from this early on point.

The Mets do certainly need a true power infusion on offense for 2019. Peter Alonso is one more and then Michael Chavis (under this idea) could be another.

If somehow Yoenis Cespedes can make it back healthy beginning in Spring Training, here's maybe a possible batting lineup...

1. Brandon Nimmo CF
2. Jeff McNeil 2B
3. Michael Conforto RF
4. Yoenis Cespedes LF
5. Peter Alonso 1B
6. Michael Chavis 3B
7. Peter Mazeika C
8. Amed Rosario SS

Many will want JT Realmuto from Miami to catch here for these NY Mets, after all who wouldn't. But the competition for him will be immense, and there are no conceivable guarantees getting him. The 2019 free agent catcher list is to me a bit over exaggerated.

Patrick Mazeika is like 23/24 now and his window of opportunity could soon begin to close after another MiLB season I think. It may be a slight rush up to the parent club for him. But that's why you Winter Ball him and get him extra workouts with an established catcher like a Mike Piazza or a John Stearns retired veteran catcher.

If anyone here can come up with a better batting order and Mets offense strategy, I am all ears and would truly welcome it. Just keep the acquisitions realistic and not too outlandish.

The above (aside from Yoenis Cespedes) is a very strong and very young offensive idea. One that could be the answer for all our dreams of a dynasty run.

Dynasty run? More? I like the sound of that.

Anonymous said...

Mack:

Truly here, which do you prefer the LIRR or the LI Express Way?

(Just wondering)

Hope you are well.

Signed,

Proton Beam Radiation Therapy Boy

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