Recently Mike Freire and Mack got into a debate about the
necessity for the Mets to be aggressive in the off-season to build upon the
core that emerged during this past wasted season (which followed another wasted
season). Whine all you want about
injuries, but the Dodgers lost players to the DL 38 times to our 28 yet the
last time I looked they were playing in the NL championship to get into the
World Series. It’s about what you do
when you face adversity that is the difference.
They had lost Cory Seager all year and Justin Turner much of the
year. They went out and got Manny
Machado. The Mets went out and got
Austin Jackson. One of these things is
not like the other.
It occurred to me that if you analyzed the 2017/2018 off-season
spending you would find that indeed the Mets had the resources to ink a Manny
Machado or a Bryce Harper had they been smart instead of searching for bargains
in the “irregulars” section of the store.
Let’s take a look. I warn you, it’s
pretty ugly.
Jason Vargas was signed to effectively a 2-year deal worth
$16 million. Technically it’s two with
an option for a third or a $2 million buyout, but it meant the first year of
his deal cost the club just $6 million.
For that he delivered -0.3 WAR.
Jay Bruce was in another first-year discount type of
deal. There are no options in play here,
but the total magnitude is $39 million.
The first year cost was $11 million.
He delivered -0.4 WAR.
Anthony Swarzak similarly took a year one discount on his
two-year deal. He was paid $5.5 million
for 2018 and will earn $8.5 million in 2019.
He delivered -0.4 WAR.
Jose Reyes was brought back for another year after his hot
finish to a disastrous 2017 season. At a
cost of $2 million for a single year it didn’t necessarily look awful on
paper. It did look awful on the field as
evidenced by the -1.0 WAR he provided.
Jerry Blevins was a net positive in the WAR column after a dreadful start to
2018. He finished strongly and his
one-year deal of $7 million dollars was worth 0.1
WAR. However, if one WAR is worth $7.5
million or so, then maybe it was not such a good deal after all.
Exercising the option on Asdrubal Cabrera was a hotly
debated topic during the past off-season but he delivered. Midway through the year, of course, he was
dealt to the Phillies and finished this $8.25 million contract by providing 0.7
WAR for the season.
The one true positive of the whole bunch was Todd Frazier. In between stints on the DL he was able to give
the Mets 1.4 WAR on an investment of $8 million in 2018 and $9 million to
follow this coming year.
In total the Mets’ off-season spending spree totaled $47.5
million for 2017 and provided a net gain of 0.6 WAR.
Bryce Harper had, by his lofty standards, a sub-par year for
the Nationals. He was only worth 1.3
WAR. He’s provided as much as 10.0 in a
single season and averages about 3.8 WAR per season for his career.
Manny Machado delivered to the Orioles and Dodgers combined
5.7 WAR. He has averaged about 4.9 WAR
per season over the course of his career.
So if you look at the $30 million per season one of these
guys would cost and weigh it against the $47.5 million actually spent, the Mets
can’t help but look less than shrewd.
Even if you filled out the remainder of the roster with warm bodies
earning minimum wage who provided 0.0 WAR, those other 6 players would cost
$3.6 million in aggregate. Add that to
the $30 million for the one superstar and you’d still be way ahead of the game.
However, to be fair, neither Machado nor Harper were
available on the open market last season.
You couldn’t have obtained them even if you had the foresight and
resources to do so.
Do you want to know who WAS available and who were touted as
good gets for the Mets? Centerfielder
Lorenzo Cain was available to the highest bidder (who turned out to be the NL
champion-bound Milwaukee Brewers). He
provided 6.9 WAR for $14 million in his first year of a five-year $80 million
contract. J.D. Martinez was pricy at
$23.5 million but provided the AL-champion contending Boston Red Sox with 6.4
WAR. Mike Moustakas signed for $3
million less than Todd Frazier and he gave the Royals 2.5 WAR.
Now I’m not raising these depressing points to ruin your
day, but simply to point out that a smarter GM might be able to convince
ownership that shopping in the bargain bin is not always the best course of
action and that you can actually save money if you choose more
judiciously.
23 comments:
Yes the bargain shopping is ok only after you go shopping at the big boy stores first.
Sign Machado and Ramos this offseason. Next extend your top starting 3 pitchers. Then last please sign a few relief pitchers.
We as fans won’t bother you for about 5 years to go shopping again, replenish from within during those years at a very cheap rate for all your extra players needed.
So increase the next 2 years of salary to around $180 mil and then it will go down a bit to where ownership will be comfortable. Plus you will be getting insurance money back on Cespedes and Wright, so it really wouldn’t be 180?
Fully on board with the sign Machado belief.
Young & dominant makes spending more $$ a better choice than the Bruce, Frazier, Cuddyer, Bay older (but a bit less expensive) signings
I agree with your basic premise, but it really depends on the player in question.
I hate second generation contracts because they very rarely are a "good deal". I know that sounds like
something Sandy would say, but he isn't wrong. You are pretty much paying for what a player has done,
as opposed to what they will do for you moving forward.
The exception, and where I agree with your article, is this coming off season. You have TWO generational
talents that will be available (Machado, Harper) and they are both young enough to provide decent value
moving forward.
I am on the fence with Machado and could see him becoming what DW was supposed to be for us (face of
the franchise), but Harper's attitude rubs me the wrong way.
It comes down to the $$$........30+ million per year is CRAZY money!
They would have to string together several MVP caliber seasons to come close
to justifying the contract(s).
In today's baseball, $30 million per year is the going rate for an All-Star regular.
Several MVP seasons will be in the $40 million range.
Machado is hands down the best combination of production, health,and youth.
Furthermore I havent heard anything bad regarding attitude.
Add to that, it would free Rosario or Gimenez to be used as trade value to address catcher or centerfield.
This should be a no-brainer for a gm that wants to turn a franchise around by establishing a young/strong base for the next 5 years.
And Jeff McNeil's WAR was? Probably higher than all the Mets' free agents combined.
I don't agree with Sandy on much, but I do when it comes to long-term contracts. They rarely work out past the 1st few years, especially when they involve bringing in players from outside the org.
I was in favor of David's deal, because he was a proven superstar here. It didn't work out because of his health issues but we couldn't foresee that.
How did the Marlins (and the subsequent suckers) make out in the huge Reyes deal? The Yankees with Ellsbury? The Sawks with Price? The Angels with Pujols?
Some of the deals that Sandy made (Bruce, Vargas, Frazier, Swarzak, Ramos, et al) may or may not work out, but they'll be done in 3 yrars or less, freeing up money for other needs such as our Big 3 (or 4) SPs and keeping Nimmo and 4to beyond their Arbi years IF they continue to progress.
As talented as Machado and Harper may be, IMO no player, especially one who hasn't proven he can handle NY, is worth either the money or the years.
Look across the river and see how the fans (and management) feel about the Stanton deal.
I'd rather be patient and build with the kids we have and GOOD FAs like Ramos and some of the RPs available than put all the eggs in one basket.
I would prefer to put Rosario in Centerfield
Why not.have a real centerfielder?
No reason it has to be "all the eggs"
Add Machado & Realmuto to the roster.
Add to bullpen with smarter/cheaper talent. Look for mediocre/falied starters that can shine in bullpen from free agency, trade, or prospects.
Money is being saved on Wright and Cespedes contracts anyway (insurance).
Money in no way should be a limiting factor in this.
Machado is a much better $$ risk than 3 Bruce/Swarzak/Frazier types.
We also do have AFL's Peter Alonso with his 8 for 16, trying to keep pace with 9 for 14 Vlad Good Golly Great Guns Guerrero.
Only one AFL guy has 2 homers - Dez Lindsay - and he did it in just one game.
If you're sure that Yo won't be back, you make a good case. Are you?
2 heel surgeries.
Not going to be able to participate until well after spring training.
Highly questionable to be able to play at all next year.
MINIMUM recovery time is 8-10 months.
2nd heel surgery scheduled Oct. 23rd.
10 months = August 23rd.
8 months = June 23rd plus minor league time to get in playing shape at 33 yrs old. Not to mention set backs.
Cespedes is NOT contributing next year
If we had a Front office with a plan they would have signed only players who would have had expiring contracts this year...
This was the year to plan for... We would have been better off not doing anything last year (but this fan base cannot dare stand still when the talent is not there).
Machado is the type of guy you go all in for. We wont but anyone who argues against that has no idea what talent looks like. the only negative machado has is his own ego and desire to play SS... He is a Avg defensive SS but he could be a great 3B. Self evaluation is what people have a hard time doing.
If you signed Machado and have a INF of Machado Rosario McNeil and Alonso that a infeild that cost about 31.5 Million dollars... Sounds like a good deal to me...
You left out the costs of Frazier and Flores.
"The one true positive of the whole bunch was Todd Frazier." Stunning. And by no means am I saying that you're wrong, just that it stunned me to read it. Good piece, Reese.
I am honest here, I am not a big "advanced stat" person, but how can the Mets have a total pitcher WAR of over 16, and a total hitter WAR of over 16 as well, and have a losing record?
See fan graphs link: https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/mets
I have a feeling that Flores will be non-tendered or traded. His likely salary doesn't fit with his reduced role, now that McNeil, Smith, Alonso, and hopefully TJ, Cecchini, and Guillorme will be available, not to mention a FA bench-level guy like Dempsey or similar.
Some team out of the 29 should be willing to make a trade for Wilmer...I think he will therefore be tendered.
We all see what happens with a change of scenery with Mets players - but don't ask me, ask Murph and Turner
A lot of good postings today
I'd like to address a few here. I am not a big Manny Machado fan, especially after recent events with him sliding into second and basically trying to hurt Milwaukee middle infield players. I agree with Pedro Martinez on pregame FOX Sports, "It's about players realizing that the game is bigger than they are, and you need to have respect for the game."
Look at Alex Bregman as an example.
.286 BA, 31 HR, and 103 RBI's, a .384 OBP. Plays with class, plays hard every game, no immaturity here. For the kid fans out there who never got to see David Wright play, Alex Bregman is almost exactly Wright. There is a big difference between Machado and Bregman in attitude.
The Mets need to focus on getting younger every season.
This 2019 NY Mets team will be very, very good. But you have to try and keep the younger players coming into the core, so that one really good season leads into the next one...
The days of "filling holes" in the lineup with older veteran type players from outside the organization, should now end, except where it is utterly impossible to bring some developed AAA Met up. Drafting each position over the course of a few seasons is key.
Around the Acorn, the Nut of Oak
SB Nation still talking about trading Peter Alonso despite Peter having a terrific AFL thus far, hitting AND fielding mind you. His first base fielding has been upgraded the reports say. I think the Mets are impressed with Alonso, and they too realize that Alonso is the type of real power bat that they need added into this current mix for 2019. They are 100% correct in this too. Plus, Peter Alonso is the exact type of younger player a team should never part with. These type of homerun hitters always come back to haunt their original team. Always.
On the outfield...
The 2019 NY Mets should have plenty as is. Nimmo, Conforto, Bruce, and hopefully too Yoenis Cespedes. I agree with a poster above saying that they think Flores will not be tendered another contract here. I think the Mets can conserve with someone like a Christian Colon and other AAA players, hopefully Gavin Cecchini. That would cover all middle infield utility roles.
If you can do things from within the organization well, just do it. Hey, that's Nike's tag line. Sorry.
Four More and Shut the Door
My crystal ball sees four new Mets in 2019.
They might be:
1B: Alonso
L/SP: Not sure who yet, will have to wait and see.
RP: I like Texas reliever Ryan Brasier now on Boston. He closes too!
3B or LF: Depends on conventional wisedom which one. The need for another power outfield bat is only predicated on Yo not beign able to get back whole come ST. Personally, I really hope that he can because he can be that rock again in the middle of the order. But this time, he will have some other really good players around him batting.
Daniel Zamora
This young lefty pitcher I find very interesting and amazing with that sweeping slider (78-80 mph). His pitching mechanics are so unusual yet smooth and somewhat simplistic looking, and to the point, with his left arm coming across his body the way that it does. I have seen him strikeout some really topflight MLB batters with it and it has made me wonder ( a lot lately) what would happen if he developed one more outstanding pitch to go with that one slider, and his 90-92 mph fastball? OMG!
I have posted often about adding into the Mets rotation another lefty starter. What if that one more lefty starting pitcher were actually here now in Daniel Zamora? (Interesting and worth a try perhaps)
Dare I mention Catching
No. Stop right there. What do I think are the chances of landing JT Realmuto this off season. Hmm, let me think on it. Maybe slim?
The reason is simply this. The Marlins what young and really good AND affordable players back for JT. So what do the Mets have to offer along these lines you ask? A: Andres Gimenez, Justin Dunn, Patrick Mazeika, Dominic Smith, Nabil Crismatt, Corey Oswalt, and Anthony Kay.
(Left out players like Peter Alonso, Tyler Bashlor, and David Peterson because I personally would not trade any one of these three.)
Would that be enough though? Not sure.
Might be wise to look into catcher Danny Jansen on Toronto as well.
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