Mike Freire - Wild Card Playoff Preview (Oakland versus New York)

Good Morning, Mets’ fans.

I know that an article on the playoffs does not have much to do with our beloved “orange and blue”, but I would like to think that we are all baseball fans and that extends to enjoying the playoffs.

With that said, I would like to put together a series of playoff previews as the overall playoff cycle progresses.  I am not attempting to reincarnate “Jimmy The Greek” or to predict how the different match ups will go.  Instead, I will offer some basic statistics and attempt to show how they will likely affect the outcome of each set of games.

Let’s start with the “so called” first round of the playoff picture, which is also known as the Wild Card round.  I am not a fan of this format, since a one game playoff is hardly a series and it weakens the team that wins the game, as they progress into the Divisional Round.  But, what’s done is done, right?

Wednesday 10-03-18 @ 2000 HRS

Yankee Stadium (New York)

Oakland A’s (97-65) versus the New York Yankees (100-62)

One Game Playoff (Wild Card) with the winner advancing to the
Divisional Round against the Boston Red Sox.

Head to Head (2018)

The series was tied 3-3 with each team winning 2 out of 3 on their home field (the series in New York was in May, the series in Oakland was in early September).

Head to Head @ Yankee Stadium (2018)

The Yankees won 2 of 3 early season games at home, with one contest decided in extra innings, so it could have gone either way.

Last 10 Games                                                                                                     

Both teams played solid baseball down the stretch, despite being on "cruise control"once the playoff seedings were finalized (Yankees 7-3, A's 6-4).

Pitching Matchup (probable)

It has not been formally announced, but I am guessing that Luis Severino will start for the Yankees and Sean Manaea will toe the rubber for the A's.

Manaea has not opposed the Yankees this year, while Severino has pitched against the A's twice, to include a solid win at home in May and a straight up beat down in Oakland (just a few weeks ago).

Run Differential (season)

Both teams had positive run differentials that were also consistent with the win totals expected for the listed margins (Yankees +182 and the A's +139).

Fielding Percentage and Errors

Both teams were pretty much "league average" here (Yankees .984 and A's .985), with the Yankees committing a few more errors overall (93) when compared to the A's (88).

One Run Games and Extra Inning Games

Both teams had successful records in one run ballgames, as well as in extra inning contests (Yankees 23-17 and 8-5, A's 31-14 and 13-6).  However, Oakland played in a few more "close" contests, but the difference was minimal (45 versus 40).

Coaching Impacts

Oakland's manager (Bob Melvin) has approximately 14 years of coaching experience with three different ball clubs (.504 lifetime winning percentage), to include 18 playoff games.  The Yankees rookie manager (Aaron Boone) has had a great first year, but has not participated in a playoff series as a manager (although he has experience as a player).

Comments/Outlook

There is a lot of information here and it seems to be pointing to a competitive playoff game, in my opinion. Both teams are talented and they have the statistics and the records to prove it (they both had the misfortune to be in divisions with teams that were having GREAT seasons), The key in my mind is how will Oakland's starter react to seeing the powerful Yankees' lineup for the first time in 2018 and which Luis Severino will show up against the A's in this contest? 

Oakland is not intimidated by the Yankees as evidenced by their head to head record and recent series win in early September (at home). They are not as powerful as the Yankees but they were only 38 runs scored behind them for the entire season, so they get things done in multiple ways. The A's also have a potential advantage in the dugout (experience), as well as small advantages in close games and with basic fundamentals (fielding). Those things loom LARGE in elimination games during the playoffs (just ask the Royals about the 2015 World Series).

The Yankees could simply bash their way to a high scoring victory in this one, but if it stays close into the later innings, it could be anyone's game to win.