Is anyone else getting a déjà vu feeling about the 2019
baseball season? In 2018 the Mets
started off like a house afire and then the roof caved in. For the team last season it was mostly a
problem with the offense (as it has been almost since the franchise
began). Yes, there was the spate of
injuries that derailed the team from contention, but most of the time you
figured the pitching would keep them at least reasonably close.
Fast forward a year with the change in the front office and
the aggressive additions to the roster, and now we’re in Bizarro Mets World in
which scoring runs isn’t the problem, preventing the opposition from scoring
is. The starting rotation has been either horribly
inconsistent (or just horrible). The
bullpen has been the same. At least out
there you have an Edwin Diaz. There’s no
one in the starting rotation who has been consistently good. Hell, the best start they’ve gotten lately
came from Jason Vargas of all unlikely people.
Consequently when the Yankees and Gio Gonzalez agreed to
part ways, it was a little surprising and enough to get the fans’ appetites
salivating. After all, Gonzalez was a
left handed thorn in the Mets’ side for many years as an anchor in the
Washington Nationals rotation. He’s a
two-time All-Star with a career 3.69 ERA.
He’s got a 21-win season under his belt as well. In his age 33 season there’s no reason to
believe his tank is empty.
Still, it was a little puzzling that in this seemingly
collusion-like environment for free agents this past off-season the best
Gonzalez could land was a minor league deal with the Yankees late into the
off-season, so late, in fact, he was left behind when the club went north.
The deal was an interesting one. He would be paid $3 million when he made it
to the majors, plus $300K for each start he made. From Gonzalez’ perspective, if he made even just
20 starts for the Yankees, the would collect $9 million in total. While that’s a steep drop from the $12
million per season for the past three years, it’s not exactly chump change.
Furthermore, Gonzalez has not exactly been chopped liver
during his post-21-win season either. In
the subsequent five years he’s gone 68-57 with a 2.46 to 1 strikeout to walk
ratio and a 3.72 ERA. It’s not
necessarily top of the rotation stuff, but as a 4/5 starter he’s certainly acceptable.
Gio’s Yankees contract contained an April 20th
out clause which he was rumored to be looking to execute before the Yankees
apparently beat him to the punch. He was
not exactly turning heads in the minor league camp, pitching to an ERA of
6.00. (For comparison’s sake, the much
maligned Jason Vargas, with his stellar 4 innings this weekend, has finally
dropped below double digits to a still-fugly 9.58 ERA).
Now if you delve a little deeper you will see that in his last two starts Gonzalez won both, first going 6 innings of 3 hit shutout ball with 10 Ks to just 1 walk. Then he followed that up with a win against Buffalo with 5 IP, 8 hits, 2 runs, 8 Ks and 2 BBs. Bear in mind that Buffalo lineup includes guys like Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, sons who look to surpass the exploits of their dads.
Now everyone is already on the “Sign Gio” bandwagon (though
many were there long before the season started). Ironically, he may wind up with more money
now than he potentially could have gotten from the Yankees had he ascended back
to the majors. There are plenty of teams
besides the Mets in need of starting pitching and they may be willing to pay up
to get it. Think of him as the poor man’s
Dallas Keuchel – less money, fewer years, similar results. DK is a 3.66 ERA pitcher for his career with
more hits and fewer strikeouts.
There are, of course, other routes the Mets could take to
address their pitching woes. The trade
market is, unlike during the Alderson years, a distinct possibility. Dominic Smith would seem to be the lead name
going in any deal, but it’s also possible that BVW might reach deep into the
minors for low level prospects to sweeten the deal to try to snag someone like
Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays or Tanner Roark from the Reds or Jeff
Samardzija from the Giants or any of Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner or
Dan Strailey from the Orioles.
7 comments:
Things are on the upswing, but today we return to agita central, when Jason Vargas pitches.
Vargas has a worse ERA (9.58) than Matt Harvey (8.03). Got rid of one, should we get rid of two?
Gio gotta be better. Heck, even Drew Gagnon (2-0, 0.51 ERA in 17.2 AAA innings) would be better.
If Vargas pitches well today, give him a little more leash. Another fiasco? Cut bait.
Same old debate here, from my point of view: The Internet Guys -- the Twitter fans and bloggers -- want to cut players too quickly. Too ready to spend millions that ownership clearly doesn't want to spend, too ready to discard assets, too emotional.
Not that you are completely wrong. But the timetable feels panicked to me, unwise.
Take Broxton, for example. He might need to go. But you dump players with caution. It's a game of failure and players look terrible when they struggle. Then something clicks and things change. He's the end of the bench reserve outfielder. Let's see how it plays out.
Travis d'Arnaud is 1-20 but his last two ABs, I've seen him rope liners to RF. High-quality ABs. There's a lot of rust. I'm encouraged.
Quoting stats is stupid, pointless.
On Gio, he's always been a mercurial, up-and-down talent. From what I've read, he hasn't been amazing down in AAA. He might not be the answer after all. And he signs only if he starts at ML level. So the solution is to toss away Vargas?
Question: How good does a team's #5 need to be? How much money have we got? Would it be better to use it in the pen at a later date, when more talented pitchers become available?
I entered this season thinking that Vargas might be a decent #5, a bounceback season, a 4.50 ERA type player who will mostly keep Mets in games. Go 5 innings, give up 2-3 runs. Have a few clunkers thrown in. He's had two good starts and one miserable one. He's been thrown off his routine, bounced into the pen, bounced back.
I think you want to give players the opportunity to succeed. The best, simplest scenario for the Mets is for Vargas to be okay-enough. I'd support him and keep a close eye on things. As a fan, I don't have the opportunity to watch his daily work routine, tap into his attitude, see the look in his eyes. That's up to the coaches and evaluators.
This isn't being said here, but I am frustrated by the "sign Keuchel" people. This is a guy with red flags who was asking for the moon over the winter -- he turned down a $17.9 qualifying offer, could be pitching for the Astros right now -- AND the team that signs him has to give up a draft pick. (Funny how the people who were freaked out about giving up Kelenic in Seattle trade seem blithely okay with surrendering a valuable pick for Keuchel.) There's a lot of reasons why the Mets aren't signing this guy. Ownership doesn't have that kind of money to spend. And do you even give him a playoff start? Do you surrender all those resources for a #5 in the rotation? With Gio, the questions are similar but the costs are much less.
But is Gio better than Vargas? I'm thinking . . . maybe.
I'm holding steady for the time being. It's April and the Mets are in 1st place.
Jimmy P
Thinking of past Mets starters, I am surprised that Bartolo Colon is not pitching somewhere. Just 3 wins short of his coveted 250, he had a 5.78 ERA last year - but he pitched in HR haven Texas, where he gave up more homers than on the road and had a 5.27 road ERA and 6.27 home ERA.
No, I do not want him for the Mets.
Also, RA Dickey had a very decent 10-10, 4.26 ERA in his last season in 2017 - 17 teams currently have a higher team ERA than that. I guess he is not interested. He is "younger" than Big Bart at only 44, a prime age for a competent knuckleballer. I'd have to think some teams would be interested in him if he were still interested.
I love stats myself - data says that there are a number of us out there.
Gio, like Keuchel, missed ST. Unlike him, though, he has been pitching regularly in AAA, and thus is ready now. Keuchel is at least a month away, starting with the date he signs somewhere.If he's still available in June, when draft pick is not included, he could be a valuable 2nd half pickup, but that doesn't apply now.
I still want Gio, but I wonder why the Yankees didn't call him up and trade him, rather than just cutting him loose. Tonight's start by Vargas may affect the need for Gio, but I'd still go for him.
In reality, the best solution is to sign Kimbrell thus making Lugo the 5th starter. As good as he is as a reliever, a pitcher with four different pitches and with the quality of those pitches, should be a starter.
It also prepares the Mets for the very possible departure of Wheeler via free agency by building his innings for next year.
Bill, Gio could be a Met tomorrow if Vargas fails today.
Or, as some might suggest, give Vargas time to see if he is a rebounder or a flop, while keeping in mind his last 2 spring outings, Vargas gave up 8 runs in just under 10 innings. He seems like a guy who is lucky to go 5 as a starter - he just seems very lacking. Today is important to see if he can break out of his long rut - or if lousy is his new normal. His last 4 inning start was short but decent.
If the Mets wait too long, Gio could be gone, of course.
If his gas tank tops out at 4 IP, then maybe flip-flopping Vargas and Lugo may have some merit, though a Kimbrel would fill me with a lot more confidence than the overpaid lefty.
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