4/19/19

Reese Kaplan -- Evaluating Broxton Family Values



One of the interesting dynamics of the new front office is their lack of commitment to the players obtained, drafted or developed by the previous regime.  A quick example came during this past off-season when Bobby Wahl, the sore-armed pitcher obtained as part of the package for Jeurys Familia when he was sent packing for Oakland, was in turn dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers as part of the package to obtain the divisive outfielder Keon Broxton. 

For what it’s worth, Wahl is living up to his reputation, already ensconced on the 60-day injury list.  So as far as that aspect of the trade goes, there’s no great loss here.  The rest of the package, however, may make Mets fans squirm a bit considering the underwhelming start by Mr. Broxton.

Big right-handed reliever Adam Hill was sent to the Brewers after starting his pro career in 2018 with an impressive albeit short Brooklyn debut of 9 games during which he pitched 15.1 innings and gave up 16 hits.  However, in that span he also fanned 26 batters while walking 7.  Whether or not he can learn to harness that control is going to spell the potential for his future success.  For every Edwin Diaz there are dozens of Jack Leathersich and Josh Smoker types whose inability to find the plate doomed their futures.  He finished with 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA.

In 2019 the Brewers have him working at the A level and he’s only been in 2 games but has logged 7.1 innings thus far.  He has a 2.45 ERA with a 1-0 record and has seemed to throttle back a bit on his strikeout quest.  He’s notched 6 of them while walking 3.  At age 22 he’s got time to ascend to the majors.

The other part of the triumvirate of talent going to the Brewers was international youngster, Felix Valerio, who played on two teams in the Dominican Republic.  The diminutive second baseman did pretty well, hitting .319 with 16 SBs.  He had a .409 OBP and an .843 OPS though as expected for a 5’7”, 165 pound athlete he didn’t deliver much in the way of run production with just 3 HRs and 22 RBIs.  The Caribbean leagues have not yet started up so there’s no way to see how he’s going to fare at the next rung on the Brewers’ organizational ladder.


Now, in return, what do the Mets have in Keon Broxton.  He’s showing the defense that rivals Juan Lagares, though we really haven’t seen him uncork the Lagares laser-beam throws.  His best offensive contribution seems to be his eye as he’s already drawn 4 walks to parallel his 4 stolen bases.  Unfortunately, after that it’s rather grim.  He’s on the Mendoza line and has struck out at a rate that would make previous whiff king Kirk Nieuwenhuis look like Tony Gwynn by comparison when it comes to making contact.  In Wednesday game he ended the game with a strikeout to bring his total for the young season up to 14 in only 30 official ABs.   That’s obviously not a recipe for success.  He has 2 RBIs but has not yet flashed the power he showed as part of the Brewers. 

Thus far it would appear that even without Bobby Wahl in the equation the Brewers have gotten the better part of this deal.  With the black holes both Broxton and Lagares have become in the lineup, it would appear that at best the Mets can do is tread water until Yoenis Cespedes is available.  Any time when Brandon Nimmo (recently hot but also recently hurt), Jeff McNeil (an inferno) and Michael Conforto (All-Star production) are unavailable, the team suffers. 

4 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Broxton may have already given the Mets more than the Brewers got back in that trade.

It is a shame Broxton never truly tackled his strikeout problem, leaving him as marginal.

Like I said yesterday, if I am a strikeout machine with speed, I would study all the high contact speedsters over the years, like a Matty Alou or a Brett Butler. And change my game to emulate them.

Mack Ade said...

I am sorry.

I always ask that my fellow writers on this site speak positive about the prospect, but Broxton is not only not a prospect but a strike out machine walking down the block.


Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I added this comment to Mike's article yesterday on Broxton, and I thought I would post it again - some guys fix problems, some guys can't (or won't):

Here is another perspective on Keon Broxton, which makes me wonder why he never took greater steps to hit balls early in the count and make contact:

62% of his at career bats ended with 2 strikes (where he had from 0-4 balls).

59% of those (306 out of 518), he fanned.

He went .126 in those official at bats (58 / 459 = .126).

He walked or got HBP 98 times, which seems to indicate a desire to work the counts, but his K rate indicates a very limited ability to be successful in those counts.

If I were him, why not 1) be aggressive earlier in counts, to avoid getting to strike 2, and 2) shorten up in any 2 strike count.

A guy who stole 54 bases in the 219 times he has gotten on base other than by homer or triple has a real weapon once he actually gets on first or 2nd base. And another reason to be very aggressive with 0 or 1 strike is the fact that 42% of his hits are extra base hits, so a hit is not the same as a walk for him.

He clearly is still blazing fast - just 5 GIDPs in 832 plate appearances.

Much easier said than done, but it seems with his superior speed and power tools, making hitting adjustments for far more aggression and contact would be very helpful to him.

Because getting to 2 strikes is like the kiss of death for him.

Anyone wants to weigh in, feel free.

bill metsiac said...

I was not impressed with getting him, but in ST he almost convinced me that he'd be a worthwhile addition.

He duplicates Lag's values, and there's no need to keep both. As soon as Frazier is promoted, Keon should be DFA'd. If he clears and is willing to sign a MnL deal, I'd give him one, but nothing more.