6/29/19

Reese Kaplan -- Fixing the Mets, Blank Slate Edition



We’ve reached the seemingly annual rite of passage where the point in the season has come when you have to decide if you are buyers or sellers.  The previous two years the club was most definitely sellers of expiring contracts, though they seemed inclined to give away the players for any warm body who would cost them significantly less rather than actually insisting on someone of quality be returned for the outgoing quality.

What we’ve seen in the past several seasons in the inevitable half-measures where you made just enough transactions to appear to be doing something of significance but never quite jumping into the deep end of the pool.  Part of that has to do with an unwillingness to spend, part of it has to do with remarkably bad drafting and part of it squarely belongs on the incompetence of the front office.

The fallacy that you can’t rebuild in New York is accepted without any rational questioning of it.  How many people would rather have seen 2 really bad years in exchange for 7 competitive ones vs. 2 competitive ones and 7 water torture mediocrities? 


Let’s start with a blank page.  If you are in charge of the Mets right now, what would you do to try to turn things around for 2020 and beyond?


The Keepers

This admittedly small group is the core around which you build for the future.  It would include Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil.  Some might even argue that Diaz is hardly untouchable, but as porous as the bullpen has been, you need to start somewhere and he’s still earning very little money for what (until lately) is more often good performance than bad.  Can you make the case for anyone else?


The Expiring Contracts

Zack Wheeler is enigmatic in that he can put together a brilliant start followed immediately by a clunker.  He’s surely not showing the consistency he did in 2018, but he’s young enough and apparently healthy enough that there should be a long line of prospective takers for the free-agent-to-be.

Jason Vargas is having something of a career renaissance late into his Mets’ tenure.  While the club could make the case to pick up his option for next year at an incremental cost of just $6 million over what it would cost to show him the door, the fact is you don’t build for the future around 37 year old pitchers.

Todd Frazier is also late into his Mets career finally shaking the rust off his two consecutive .213 seasons.  Sell high!  His contract expires at year’s end and you’re not going to make him a QO, so what’s the point of hanging onto him?

Juan Lagares is a sunk cost.  Pay down nearly his entire salary in the hopes you can get someone to part with a wildcard type prospect.



The Fringe Players

Seth Lugo is an interesting choice.  When he’s good, he’s very good, but his arm seems to be held together with some combination of Scotch Tape and Gorilla Glue.  Despite his recent meltdown, I’d certainly be tempted to sell high on him if another club is willing to assume the health risk. 

What about Dominic Smith?  Yes, he appears to have turned the corner on his development but there’s a 27 HR monster at 1st base who now owns that position.  Smith is demonstrating he’s available if not capable of playing the outfield, so he’s better off used as a trade chip to a team in need of either a 1st baseman or a DH. 

Amed Rosario is not showing himself to be the defensive whiz we were led to believe he was.  Uber prospect Andres Gimenez appeared to be next in line until he hit the offensive wall this year.  Ronny Mauricio may leapfrog him yet on the SS depth chart.  There’s been some talk of shifting Rosario to CF, so obviously the powers that be are not sold on him as a long term solution either. 

Noah Syndergaard is another pitcher, like Lugo, who seems to have a devil of a time staying healthy.  In his case, throwing 100 MPH can only exacerbate that situation.  Still, his gaudy strikeout numbers will stand out and he, like Smith, may be more valuable to the club as a trade chip than as a long term member of the rotation. 

Steven Matz continues to be an enigma.  He shows flashes of brilliance then gets rattled by a bad call or a few bleeder hits.  His own health has been fragile to say the least, so he doesn’t necessarily seem like a good long-term bet either, but other clubs will see what we’ve seen and you may wind up with him on your roster by default.

Wilson Ramos is proving as a catcher to be a decent hitter, but already Jacob deGrom is asking for and mostly receiving a more adept batterymate with a balsa wood bat on the days that he starts.  He’s on the hook to the Mets for one more year at modest money, so he could be traded but what would it accomplish?  The Mets are not exactly flush with catching talent at the upper levels of the minors ready to step in and take over.


The Untradeables

The first on the list, of course, is Robinson Cano.  He’s yet to demonstrate that his 2019 results are neither an inevitable age-related decline or what happens after they start screening you more closely for banned substances.  Get used to him, folks…he’s here until after age 40. 

Brandon Nimmo is having a much more serious health issue than was initially suspected.  No one is going to offer much of anything until he’s back on the field again.  Consequently his roster spot is safe.

Unless the Mets can get a good (read expensive) lawyer to void Yoenis Cespedes’ contract for sustaining a non-baseball injury, his roster spot for 2020 is also solid.  Who but the Mets would pay him $29.5 million?

Finally there’s the guy in witness protection, Jed Lowrie.  He has yet to play a game for the Mets yet they’re obligated to pay him another $10 million again next year as well. 

Summary

So you have five core players and four untradeables if you were to start over again.  That’s 16 roster spots to fill if you did not seek to retain any of the fringe players.  A few of them like Lugo, Smith and Syndergaard could go a long way towards restoring long term viability.  The rest, meh…not so much.

Who are your keepers?

16 comments:

Gary Seagren said...

The biggest problem is to change the narrative Brodie has to admit the problem, get permission from the FO, and move to correct it and any GM with this club will always sell the WC dream as long as he can and of course ends up rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Your very correct about the "half measures" or business as usual around here so the team has to make the decision to actually move on from this season and build for next year but will they do that lets hope they do and move on from this year disaster.

bgreg98180 said...

As the Mets should have learned by now, rebuilding from within is only possible if you can acquire a boatload of young talent all at the same age range.
Considering the increased uncertainty and bigger risk, the further a prospect is from the major leagues, the better option (if possible) is to have that boatload of talent at the AAA level.

Just building through the draft does not accomplish this. Considering how much talent can be acquired each year, their progression time, and the fact (often ignored by fans) that the prospects age each year, it is nearly impossible to align years of draft talent onto a successful major league club that is "home grown"

That leaves 2 options:
1) acquire more young talent for your system each year than can be picked in the draft through trades. (In the past teams, except the Mets, took advantage of looser international prospects rules to enhance their systems)

2) identifying the year that your system is most possibly capable of producing its largest amount of prospects at the major league level at one time and committing what ever money it takes to fortify that major league team with upper level talent available in free agency.

Attempting the "half-way" approach the Mets have focused on produces the results the Mets have suffered through the past few years.

Tom Brennan said...

This team is sure in the horns of a dilemma.

Is not, or barely, having the services of Cespedes, Lowrie, Nimmo, J Wilson, Familia, Avilan in the first half enough on an excuse for this season?

Is hoping a GM can sell off shrewdly when he acquired a fatally flawed dude like Broxton and a guy like Robbie C a realistic hope?

This team is screwed. I would blow it up and take my chances. And maybe start thinking if we paid Robbie Cano 80% of his last 4 years he could just retire.

The Yankees 3 weeks ago, facing the exactly the same situation and finances, would have gotten Kimbrel.

Sell away, and let's hope Pete hits 50 to distract us.

Anonymous said...

Keep Alonso, McNeil, Degrom. Everyone else needs to go. We need new blood in here. Just commit to being sellers please stop thinking that there is a chance cause everyone in their right mind knows the Mets are done. Conforto has tons of value right now and yes he is young but he is also a Boras client and realistically wont resign. Mets need to be proactive and think ahead instead of being reactive and always falling behind

holmer said...

I agree on almost all points and semi-challenge one. With the DH inevitably coming to the NL soon Dom Smith is not an extraneous piece. Smith, Alfonso and (sigh) Cano will be able to rotate at the DH and all play regularly. However, if an attractive deal involving Smith comes along I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

holmer said...

Did I write Alfonso? Ooops. I mean Alonso.

Viper said...

Here is the BIG BIG problem everyone is missing with this rebuilt proposition.
THE SAME IDIOT who put this team together is the one who is going to get us great prospects in return? Which player that he signed is doing a great job?. Ramos maybe? Everything else he touch turned into ^*&t.

So to me, you start there. Get rid of Brodie, the manager and get a real GM, a real manager with experience and evaluate the organization from top to bottom getting rid of the dead weight in the process.

The way these Mets are playing, the only thing I am looking forward is the first overall draft pick. (they will mess that up too).

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, since the Mets sell off could start ASAP, how do you dump Brodie now? Do it in two stages, I guess, and hope he does not screw it up. Only get rid of soon-to-be free agents of value, like Wheeler, ASAP. Then do the rest in the off season with a new team.

I'd love to see them keep Dom - is there ANY realistic chance Pete could take over 3rd until a DH is added? Pete, Dom at the corners would be sweet.

We have to be concerned that Smith could turn into Freddie Freeman - to let him go could be a BIG mistake. Proceed with care.

Mack Ade said...

Reese

I'm sorry if I have seemed to have disappeared on my own blog.

I am so upset at this season and where our owner has once again taken us.

Yes, the owner... not the manager or GM... they are chess pieces from Wilpon chess board.

Right now, I am much more comfortable on posting Open Threads, Transactions posts, and anything I want to reach out regarding the next drafts.

Robb said...

IF i am the Mets, I would try and trade and recoup maximum value for the 2 assets worth it. Wheeler (he has actual real value, more then the comp pic) and Diaz (who i think you could sell on new york being his problem not his pitching). I think everyone else is pennies on the dollar. Youve got Alonso, DeGrom and conforto as my only must keeps. McNeil would be too if he could just play 2nd base. I would like to keep Rosario, thor and Matz, lugo of the fringe players bc I like homegrown players and you'll reget trading thor. I think they should trade Dom smith in the off season. I kind of feel like he deserves a real opportunity with kansas city or some rebuilding team without a 1st baseman. The fact that Cano is untradable tells you everything you need to know about the trade that brought him in. If i were gm the thing I think I would need to impart to the manager and owner is that no player deserves there spot unless performance dictates it. Ramos is a fine offensive catcher, but his salary shouldnt dictate that he plays. I actually understand why they are keeping Cano in the 3rd spot, bc he's always hit there and for men who we think of as having tough skin (bc the get booed) they really dont when it comes to things like being demoated in the lineup. We've seen it with other players, they sulk. I just want to point out that at one point McNeil was also in the Cano trade. Just how bad is our gm at making trades. Never let an agent become a gm. And never let them trade for their former clients. Then again we all know this is jeff Wilpons fault. Can someone explain to the mets that rebuilding when done right engages a fan base, just look at where the rangers were 18 months ago to know. The maxum that you cant rebuild in ny should have been disgarded long ago. Just ask a knick fan about rebuilding. theyd kill for it.

Gary Seagren said...

Mack I understand you and I are about the same age and are tired of this ineptitude it just wear's you down year after year after year. Also to compound the issue is having to watch teams with a plan succeed like the Braves and our cross town rivals so I guess the big question is: why are we still fans of this team? For the life of me I honestly don't have a clue.

Mack Ade said...

Gary

I am not anymore

I. am just a Mets WRITER now.

Reese Kaplan said...

The plan should be a real rebuild as it should have been 9 years ago.

Dallas said...

I would not advocate moving Smith anywhere. You make him part of your young core. You find him a place in the OF and maybe someday the DH if we get one. McNeil/Smith/Conforto/Alonso is a very solid young core.

You just have to cut bait with Cano or eat his whole salary and get some low level prospect. He can't be part of the plan next year. You need 2nd for McNeil.

C - Nido/Ramos
1B - Alonso
2B - McNeil
3B - Lowrie (untradeable)
SS - Ideally someone not named Rosario
OF - Cespedes (untradeable)
OF - Nimmo (untradeable)
OF - Conforto
OF - Smith

Trade Wheeler then resign him. I mean if you can get blown away for Syndergaard or Matz then do it.
SP - DeGrom
SP - Matz
SP - Kay
SP - Syndergaard
SP - Wheeler

RP - burn it down...



bgreg98180 said...

I caution to stay away from trying to switch players positions, like Smith and Rosario.

Better to trade them for comparable young talent at the positions needed

Reese Kaplan said...

I agree