A DISASTER COULD STRIKE AT ANY TIME...IN METSVILLE.
Sometimes, a person can buy what seems like an enticing stock - and lose his shirt.
The Mets may have lost their shirt on the Robinson Cano trade.
Of course, hindsight is always 60/40 as I always say. Or, in the case of losing teams, 40/60.
But let's look at it currently (at least through Saturday) but before we do, consider that the Yankees got uber-slugger Edwin Encarnacion for almost nothing from the very same Seattle team that the Mets swung the Cano trade with.
Back to the Cano deal:
SEATTLE'S HAUL?
Jay Bruce:
- 204 at bats, 19 HRs, 41 RBIs, .230.
- Which is pretty huge.
- The Mets seemed to have a big lefty logjam in their outfield, so Bruce was told to vamoose, was cut loose, no more Mets fan abuse.
- But smiling Brandon Nimmo has been a shell of his 2018 self, wandering Juan Lagares has really been awful (most of the time, anyway), and ex-Met Keon "the Whiff" Broxton belongs in High A ball...maybe.
- So there was plenty of room after all for Jay to stay, OK, don't you say.
- Of course, if Jay stayed, no one would have gotten hurt, and Alonso probably starts the season in the minors - instead of being on pace for 50 homers.
Anthony Swarzak:
- Part of the hated, injured Mets bullpen of 2018, Swarzak in 27 games sports a 3.12 ERA this year.
- Even worse from a Mets perspective, he has spent the last 12 games as a Brave, absolutely dominant, with just 1 earned run allowed. Whoops.
He'd be the Mets' pen ace...but the Mets decided to switch from Swarzak to Prozac.
He'd be the Mets' pen ace...but the Mets decided to switch from Swarzak to Prozac.
Jarred Kelenic:
- Christian Yelich II?
- 57 A ball games, 15 doubles, 13 HRs, .316...25 of 30 in steals as a pro.
- Kelenic plans to retire in 2040.
- Kelenic plans to retire in 2040.
Justin Dunn:
- Solid in AA, at 4-3, 3.66 ERA, 72 Ks in 59 IP.
- My guess is he'll be a strong reliever in the big leagues starting in 2020.
METS HAUL?
Edwin Diaz:
- Will his recent rough patch mean that last year's surreal pen work was an anomaly?
- Or will he return to dominance shortly?
- He hit 100 on the radar gun on Saturday, so I surely hope for dominance.
- Former nickname: Sugar
- New nickname: Booger. Or Unsteady Eddie. Your choice.
- Former nickname: Sugar
- New nickname: Booger. Or Unsteady Eddie. Your choice.
Robbie Cano:
- 5 huge $$$ contract years remain, including this one.
- 36 years of age, an age where many good players enter decline.
- Older guys get injured - the almost-never injured Cano, as a Met, got injured.
- Stunning spring training stats spoke to expectations of a strong season: .441 in 59 at bats.
- His first Mets game, against Max Scherzer - a HR, single, 2 RBIs.
- Since then, .232, 2 HRs, 12 RBIs.
- Seems reminiscent of Hall of Famer Robby Alomar, who the Mets acquired in his mid-30's and who played about 45 points short of his career average as a Met. But, as a Met, he was even younger than Cano is now - and was still in decline.
Hey, all things considered, sounds like the Mets made one helluva trade, don't you agree?
Hey, Brodie VW, maybe Jake deGrom for Chris Davis next? Exchange two bloated contracts? Word of Caution: Baltimore may want more.
Enough about the Cano trade.
After Sunday's loss, the combined career won/loss record of Chris Flexen, Tyler Bashlor, and Paul Sewald is 3-30, which would not have even come close to cutting it with the 1962 Mets, according to Jay Hook and Roger Craig.
Meanwhile, Hansel Robles is a successful closer for the Los Angeles Angelinos, ex-Met minor leaguer Chasen Bradford is 7-0 lifetime, and as noted above, Swarzak is pitching well, even swell.
Could the Mets be overlooking something in their decision making? Or is it just bad luck? Or is it both?
Hey, all things considered, sounds like the Mets made one helluva trade, don't you agree?
Hey, Brodie VW, maybe Jake deGrom for Chris Davis next? Exchange two bloated contracts? Word of Caution: Baltimore may want more.
"LOSSES BY THE NUMBERS" SEGMENT:
Enough about the Cano trade.
After Sunday's loss, the combined career won/loss record of Chris Flexen, Tyler Bashlor, and Paul Sewald is 3-30, which would not have even come close to cutting it with the 1962 Mets, according to Jay Hook and Roger Craig.
Meanwhile, Hansel Robles is a successful closer for the Los Angeles Angelinos, ex-Met minor leaguer Chasen Bradford is 7-0 lifetime, and as noted above, Swarzak is pitching well, even swell.
Trying not to be sarcastic for a second:
Could the Mets be overlooking something in their decision making? Or is it just bad luck? Or is it both?
And what should they do about it?
24 comments:
Familia is owed $26 million for another 2.6 seasons.
Is there ANY way they could have done just 2/$20...was anyone competing with them to sign him?
Mets starters have a choice...throw less pitches, or get torched by a brutal pen over and over.
I never thought the 2019 pen could be worse than the 2018 pen - but WOW!
Can Wheeler play centerfield?
Mickey Callaway was brought in as the manager despite no previous managerial experience because he was so great with pitchers. You may say he has helped the starters, but can you say the same about the pen?
Please remember that Chasen Bradford was lost so we could sign Adrian Gonzalez.
John, forgot about that on Bradford. But it is amazing how guys struggle with the Mets and go elsewhere - and do well. Do they try to do too much due to it being NY, and in the Yanks' shadow?
Rob - that CF idea is enticing for Wheeler.
I just wonder if they should stick Zack in the pen and bring up Kay (or, as Mack suggests, Mazza).
Zack might not be good in the pen - but he also might be great, like John Smoltz.
Of course, if Thor and Vargas miss starts, such an idea is purely hypothetical.
John, also a good point - Callaway and his staff were supposed to be pitcher gurus.
ERAs pre-Callaway:
2015 3.43
2016 3.57
2017 5.01
Callaway era:
2018 4.07 (4.49 without Jake)
2019 4.67
I like the idea of Mazza. I would try to trade Wheeler but he will probably thrive someplace else. Bradford pitched pretty well for the Mets. He had one bad outing that messed up his Mets stats.
John, Mazza should likely be the next guy called up. Solid this year and in recent seasons.
I also like that he seems to not be HR prone 1 every 15 innings this year.
If guys are HR prone in the minors, they have no chance in the much better power hitting majors.
I agree om.
I also think the Mets should target more prospects from Houston. Namely, their outfielders. I would look to get Myles Straw who is currently on the Houston roster and, if possible, Kyle Tucker.
Sorry Tom. That is what happens when you try to type fast.
John, no problem.
It would be nice if Wheeler could get hot and drive his price up.
After all, he'll win 20 somewhere else next season.
Oh, that's just not the Mets way.
It's been defined by hard throwing and wild relief pitchers who apparently they think they can fix in ten minutes.
Look -
I loved this trade when it happened. I no longer love it.
Yes, I can live with the loss of our two top chips, but only if the team learns from this and FINALLY goes full tilt rebuild.
If they don't, they lose me both as a fan but also awriter.
There are players on this team (Wheeler, Vargas) that have resell value for a pennant rush. You can get 4 chips here if you hold out for the best offer.
Past that, you need to get the pen out and DFA some of these bad contracts.
lease... start with Familia.
Mack, I agree. Unless there is a sudden 9 out of 10 win streak (and how remotely possible is that?), time to plan the detonation of this team.
My guess is that they will have a half rebuild by moving players about to hit free agency and get back Bobby Wahl-Will Toffey type players while really looking for salary relief just like 2017. Then next winter they will bring in a new manager and go for more bargin free agents saying "Come get us".
Even if Cano and Diaz were performing the Mets got fleeced in the trade. The Mariners gave away the leader in HR and ate some of his salary for a low level prospect. Why did we have to give away 2 top tier prospects to take on $100 million of Canos contract? They should have given Diaz and one of their prospects to us for taking on that bloated contract.
How many batters are in MLB over the age of 40? NONE! Yet we will pay Cano $20 million each for his 40 and 41 seasons and he can barely hit has a 36 year old. What could you get for Cano if you ate ALL of his contract? Very little I think, thats how bad this trade has gone.
At least every booming blunder is a nail in the coffin of any pride or prestige Fred and Jeff feel amongst knowing, sensible people.
You guys know how much I hated the Cano trade but I had no idea it would be this bad.
Why do good players play bad for the Mets? maybe the uniform is made out of kryptonite?
This team just finds ways to lose.
NO, I don't trust Brodie breaking up this team for prospects because we will end up with pure garbage in return.
On Wheeler two things come to mind. Extend him cheaply since he isn't pitching too well or trade him for at least one very good prospect. Otherwise, keep this team as is and just add to the BP. Can't be this bad again next year right?
"Can't be this bad again next year right?"
Viper, I am sure I wrote those exact words at one point last year. I was right - they may be worse.
Dallas, Jim Fregosi told me this one was the worst trade since....well, you know.
The reason this trade was bad from the beginning was it didnt align with value, reason or leverage. The mets traded bruce, swarzak a total of 30mm in contracts 19 of which on the 2019 books for 100 mm of cano and diaz. This is the equivalent of paying bobby bonila 1 million for 30 years or 5.5 at once. The dodgers keep doing this to their advantage, same with the braves. They move the money around so that it becomes an asset.
Now lets talk about the players. Diaz (4 years upwards of 25mm) cano (years 80mm after subtracting the players sent) for 2 top prospects is a bad deal. If the mets had sent 3 mediocre prospects it would have been a fair value. Bc Cano's contract should have been untradable. Whats even worse for the Mets is Cano had a no trade clause meaning he couldnt just be sent to Baltimore. The mets completely gave up on the leverage they had. The NY rangers just traded for a top tier defenseman, giving up pennies on the dollar bc he had leverage against his team. the mets did the opposite. NOw jsut to be clear the Mets also traded the wrong top tier prospect, not bc one is better then the other, but bc of the depth of the system. They ahve a young ss already. At the time fo the trade the mariners hadnt made their trade for a ss yet.
The mets overpaid, didnt use the leverage they had, went against the current model of not acquiring older players who are more apt to break down and did so at the extreme. Not to mention paid full price for a closer when the variance between an elite closer and a good closer (1 is available every year in free agency) is the difference between an 85-87% save rate and an 88-91% save rate. It's mindbogglingly dumb.
If the mets were insistent on doing this trade as constructed, it should have been (top prospect) Gimmenez, swarzak, bruce (dunn should never have been in it) for Cano at 61mm in total cost and diaz. even that feels like a slight overpay.
Robb - Brodie needs to sit thru Robb Deal Making 101 - you make a lot of sense, Robb.
I agree 100% Robb. The Mets didn't need Cano. He was owed 120 over the last 5 years so I don't know if 80 million is accurate. It doesn't matter really. Fact is we paid close to 100 million + an elite prospect + a top prospect close to the game for a reliever we could have easily gotten on the open market. Oh, also Diaz might be cheap this year but he wont be so cheap the next 3 years. We might pay him 20-25 million over the next 3 years if we keep him. So make that 125 million + 2 top prospects for 4 years of Diaz and 5 years of a player who maybe should retire. This makes the Kazmir trade look like a winner.
Tom, Dallas the biggest thing her was the no trade clause. Seattle really couldnt have sent him anywhere else that he wanted to live. Its a complete misunderstanding of leverage, which is weird bc BVD should understand leverage as he negotiated the original contract. Mets could have made the same trade and asked for 80 mm from the MAriners and they would have had to really consider it. I bet they thought Cano would be a star in ny and that would be good for marketing, but Cano was a star for the yankees. No met fan has any real appreciation for him. Or tbh wouldnt care. I wish the mets ownership would understand that drafting, developing your own players is the single best marketing for them. Look at how much people love Alonso. Outside of a player like piazza who was transcendental for the team its very very rare for a player signed in free agency or traded for to become loved. I think cespedes had enough talent and personality for that to ahve happened if he'd stayed healthy, but hindsight. Ironically i thought the other trades he made this summer were pretty good and same for the free agent signings.
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