11/14/19

John From Albany - The Mets off-season challenge


      

Payroll, Roster spots, Flexibility.  Things the Mets do not have.

That is going to make it very hard to improve the team this off season.


The 2020 MLB Luxury tax is projected to be $208 million, and I am not sure the Mets will want to approach that. 

Can they upgrade the bullpen, fill the loss of Zack Wheeler, upgrade catcher, and upgrade center field for the projected $48 million they are currently under the cap? 

Perhaps they can look to fill out their roster with a number of less expensive players like the Nationals did to help make up for the loss of Bryce Harper last year.

However, the Mets roster is currently at 37 after they picked up Lefty starter Stephen Gonsalves off waivers last week.  Three spots does not allow you to bring in a lot of different players.

With the November 20th deadline of adding players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, and players like Andres Gimenez, Thomas Szapucki, Harol Gonzalez, Ryder Ryan, and others that may need to be added, there are even less open spots,

So what do I think will happen?

To create payroll flexibility, the Mets may end up trading a Conforto or Syndergaard.  I know, that is crazy but the Mets are stuck with multiple bad contracts and unless they move them for another bad contract, they may have no other option.

For the roster, while some have suggested about moving Cano, Cespedes, and others to the Syracuse Roster, I don’t think that is going to happen. 

Instead, I think the Mets will look to package a number of players from the higher levels of the minor leagues, perhaps even before the November 20th deadline, for a Major League player that fills one of their needs. 

Another option will be the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  Last year, the Mets drafted 4 players here, 3 in the minor league portion, Chris Mazza (who made it to the Majors and is on the 40 man roster), Catcher Mitch Ghelfi, and defensive outfielder Braxton Lee.  Perhaps the Mets will look to do this again this year.

It should be an interesting off season. 


5 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Is Wheeler subtracted to get to your $160 MM starting point?

I've said it before, I'll say it again - spend, even if it means exceeding the cap in 2020 - win a World Series, earn it back.

Wright and Cespedes and Lowrie are off the cap after 2020, right? So they won't hit luxury tax in 2021. If they go $10 million over the cap, it is just a $2 million penalty. Not a big deal, so, Messrs. Wilpon, don't be cheap.

SPEND. WISELY. BUT SPEND.

If they lose someone to rule 5 by removing him off the 40 man, make it a guy with a low ceiling. Other teams will have tougher choices to make about their 40 man rosters.

Mack Ade said...

There isn't much room here. My guess in the $20-25mil range.

Our first obligation is to protect our budding stars and add them to the 40 man.

Then for every player we add from outside the org. replace them by dropping a current dud we are protecting now.

Example - add an SP. Drop Flexen

As for anything past looking for hidden gems like Davis and Wilson, bad contracts prevent us from participating much more.

John From Albany said...

Tom, Wheeler was not part of the $160 M figure.

Tom Brennan said...

Jimmy, if the Braves, Phils, and Nats try harder than Fred and Sonny Boy Wilpon and BVW to win in 2020, which based on cheapness history is most likely, we will almost certainly be disappointed (i.e., no playoffs) next year.

John, I would consider Chris Mazza and Dew Gagnon easy to drop from the 40 man, leaving more room. Baltimore, however, might want both. They'd probably want a Palestinian rock thrower over some of their pitchers.

Mack Ade said...

Jimmy

'Trying' to win got us where we are now.

'Getting' to win takes much more in a now very talented NL East.