Mike Freire - Do We Really Need To Replace Zack?

                    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you are familiar with any of my past articles, you know that I have a bit of a "love/hate" relationship with Zack Wheeler.  When he is good, he is really good as we saw in brief windows during the end of the 2018 and 2019 seasons.  When he is bad, he is really bad as we also saw at times over the past few seasons.  Then, there are the myriad of injuries that have robbed Zack (and the Mets) since his major league debut in 2013.

A fellow Mets' fan and a good friend of mine thinks I am a bit too hard on Zack.  Recently, he stated that it was negative opinions like mine that would cause Zack to leave the team as a free agent.  Said friend was also a huge supporter of Marc Sanchez so his ability to judge might be a bit compromised, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, the point of this article is to ask all of you a basic question on the eve of the free agency bonanza.  That question is do we really need to replace Zack Wheeler this offseason?

If you look at the team's starting rotation towards the end of last season, Zack was arguably the third starter on our squad.  Jake and Noah were the "two headed ace" of the staff with Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz anchoring the back end of the same.  So, losing Zack to another team in 2020 would require obtaining a #3 starter to keep things status quo, right?  Maybe not.

Consider the following statistical profiles of Pitcher #1 and Pitcher #2 below;


#1 - (30 years old in 2020)

126 Starts and 749.1 IP since 2013 with a record of 44-38 and 10.2 WAR

3.77 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9


#2 - (29 years old in 2020)

140 Starts and 849.1 IP since 2014 with a record of 51-47 and 14.6 WAR

3.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9


You probably guessed that Pitcher #1 is Zack Wheeler, but did you guess that Pitcher #2 is Marcus Stroman?  If you take a closer look, both pitchers have remarkably similar statistical profiles.  Zack is a bit older and started his career sooner, but he has fewer career starts due to injuries in his past.  Marcus also had the disadvantage of pitching in the American League with a Designated Hitter for most of his career, so his numbers are even more impressive.

The point I am trying to make is that if Zack leaves, Marcus will slide into the #3 slot in the rotation and Steven Matz will inherit the #4 slot.  We will not see much drop off, if at all, since Marcus and Zack are pretty close in ability.  Heck, Marcus was the ace of the Toronto staff a times and we will be running him out there as our #3.

Our 2020 pitching staff will be in good shape, regardless of what Zack decides to do.  In reality, we should be looking for a #5 starter that can take up a decent amount of innings and assist the bullpen from time to time and not necessarily a direct replacement for Zack.

Plus, early predictions for Zack's next contract are 4 years and 85 million dollars which works out to 21.25 million dollars per year.  That is simply insane for a "pretty good" starter who is still inconsistent at best and has a scary injury history.  I would let him walk and take the extra draft pick in the 2020 draft.

Not trying to go "all Wilpon" on anyone, but I would rather see Brodie use the listed funds to address other areas of weakness (bullpen, center field) and plug the void in the rotation with a lower cost veteran.  Or, maybe extend Noah and/or Marcus for some cost certainty in 2021 and beyond, but that's just me.