1/8/20

Reese Kaplan -- Let´s Stop Treading Water, BVW!


We´ve looked at the work done by BVW in terms of the manager he selected to lead this team despite having no experience whatsoever and having left the team with one of its most visual and painful images of bowing out without even trying.  We´ve also examined the roster construction and whether or not the moves made are indeed the most positive ones possible. Now it comes time to examine the work undone from the front office and the lame duck period of the current owners.

The Good

No one will deny that Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis definitely qualify as part of the overall good of the offensive team.  Add to them at least 4/6 of the starting rotation, including dual Cy Young Award caliber Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. Then there are some quality bullpen arms in Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, and now Dellin Betances.  

The Bad

With some good unfortunately must also come some bad and the Mets are providing plenty of fodder in this regard.  You have Wilson Ramos showing why the Nationals felt he was worth losing (and it wasn just his health). You have the oft-injured bunch, including Jed Lowrie, Brandon Nimmo, Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman and a variety of others.  Then you have the one dimensional players like Jake Marisnick, Tomas Nido and Luis Guillorme who can field but not necessarily hit enough to warrant playing.  

The Ugly

Here it gets painful and expensive in a big hurry.  Heading the list is the formerly $29.5 million dollar boar hunter, Yoenis Cespedes.  Even if he was ready to play on Opening Day, where would you put him? He is a good fielder with a good arm but not a stellar level.  Heś also not getting any younger. Then there are guys who did not play enough to warrant their salaries or at a high enough level that makes you feel like you´re up the creek with a canoe, er, Cano.  

What to Do

If the Mets are honestly looking to improve the quality of their overall roster, they´re going to need some loot to do it.  Don´t bank on them surpassing the luxury tax threshold. That means if you´re in need of money you are going to have to shed some of it from the current payroll.  How much more flexible could the potential roster solutions be if you were not obligated to a Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano or Jed Lowrie? Between the three of them alone, that is over $50 million.  When you consider how far the team got with nothing much from any of them, that does not seem like a big loss.

The problem is that no one else is likely going to be duped into paying these full salaries (some through age 42).   Let us assume you have to pay down half to get a taker. That would still result in $27 million or so in your wallet to go shopping for improvements.  If you throw in Jeurys Familia then you would get another annual bump of $5 to $10 million.  

So where would you begin with pre-Cohen deep pockets?

3 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

All depends on how broken or unbroken Lowrie and Cespedes really are in 2020. Ownership should, I guess, know better than us right now. If they excel in spring training, their value equation will rise. Still need a good back up catcher, though.

Mack Ade said...

Would it really kill Wilpon to spend 50mil more this year, take the penalty, and then make it up when you get your billions from Steve Cohen?

That being said, who's left?

Bob Gregory said...

At this point, the Mets are still trying to build a strong team and organization. It needs to identify, acquire, and develop talent.

Lowrie, Cespedes, and Cano all have potential value to this team. Even a reduced ceiling of potential based upon realistic injury and talent declines gives them more value to the Mets at this point then they would be able to get in return.
If talent would need to be added to a deal (like Dom Smith) just to "unload" a player, the answer should be a resounding "NO".

Hold on to them for now. Evaluate as the year starts and progresses. If their play begins to have teams start to ask about them, evaluate the situation then.

Keep the focus on building the talent value in the organization and not throwing away potential value in short term focus.