Mets360 - Mets’ playoff outlook based on their first-60-game record in the last five years

Mets’ playoff outlook based on their first-60-game record in the last five years

by Chris Flanders 

With Spring Training 2.0 now underway at CitiField, the sense that actual baseball being played in 2020 is palpable. No doubt, misgivings about putting people together in the midst of a spiraling pandemic still run deep, especially with Mike Trout, the game’s best player, seriously questioning his participation – and for good reason. Nevertheless, baseball is only a few weeks away from its unusual 60-game season. So what do the Mets look like after the first 60 games played in the last five years? Let’s find out below.

The first thing to consider in this exercise is why focus on the start of the past five seasons as opposed to the final 60 games, which would align better with the time of the year. No super good comparison exists for what is about to happen for such a 60-game stretch, but the start of the season makes the most sense. The main reason for looking at season starts is that all teams have the same record and are tied for first place. By the time 100 games have elapsed so many factors are baked into the records that just focusing on time of year is not smart. By 100 games each division will already have lost one, two, or three teams from real competition, injuries have potentially put a large stamp on a team, and it has been shown that the first 60-game (say two months) record poorly correlated with the end of season record for baseball teams in general. Basically, a huge amount of variation is imposed on the record based on short streaks. Records only begin to stabilize after 60 games and really only become super stable after four months of games as shown here: 
https://community.fangraphs.com/when-do-the-standings-matter/

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