7/11/20

Tom Brennan - DON BOSCH IS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW IT IS HARD FOR A FAN TO PROJECT A MINOR LEAGUER'S FUTURE SUCCESS IN THE BIGS


Don Bosch.


A figure of Mets futility in the Mets' futile period of 1962-68, a seven year stretch which saw the Amazin's go about 400 games below .500. 


And another example of how it is hard to project a player's future success, or failure, in the bigs.


As futile as Don Bosch was (and we'll get to that in a moment), he came to the Mets in a good trade: 

Don Bosch and Don Cardwell from the Pirates to the New York Mets for Dennis Ribant and Gary Kolb.  

Big Don Cardwell was a very useful Met, especially in the 1969 World Series Championship season.

Bosch?

2 ABs, no hits for the Bucs in 1966 (.000)

13 for 93 (.140) for the Mets in 1967.

18 for 111 (.171) for the Mets in 1968.

20 for 112 (.179) with the Expos in 1969.

That's it.  A woeful .164 career average in 318 career at bats.

But heck, he got tantalizingly close to his career goal of hitting at least a buck eighty once.  DARN!  JUST MISSED!

Yet, as a 20 year old in the Bucs system in A ball in 1963, in 144 games, he hit .332 with 32 steals.  To some distanced Bucs fans, seeing his stats in the Sporting News, he had to look like, perhaps, the next Roberto Clemente after a year like that.

In 1966, in AAA, at age 23, he hit .283/.370/.415.  Seemed like he was almost ready to be at least a solid MLB defensive OF with a decent bat.

So wrong.

Sometimes, you just never know.

When the Mets had a miserably woeful outfield and bench several years ago, I saw Eric Campbell go approximately .325/.440/.490 in 153 games spanning 2013 and early 2014 in Las Vegas.  I assumed he could truly help, and that anyone who could put up an OBP of .440 in AAA, even in hitters' heaven Las Vegas, could probably put up a .350 OBP in the big leagues.

Well, in his 2014 call up, he did hit .263/.322/.358 in 190 ABs.  It validated my perceptions, it seemed, and I figured he'd only improve from there.

He did hit .363/.493/.593 in Vegas in 2015 in 113 at bats, but I sure got the majors part WRONG!

He hit just .189 as a Met in 248 at bats in 2015 and 2016, and has not cracked the majors since.

He was a guy who fanned just 589 times in 966 games in the minors, but fanned 116 times in 505 plate appearances in the big leagues, or roughly double his K rate in the minors.

You really just never know.

I think that is why so many people were skeptical of the world's most gifted squirrel, Jeff McNeil, when he came up.  

He was another high average, low K guy in the minors.

But he went from minors excellence (.311/.380/.442, with 206 Ks in 428 games) to majors excellence (.321/.383/.513, with 99 Ks in 196 games) with not even a scintilla of a hiccup.


You think you know - but you just never know.  



You know?  



I dunno.



9 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

What you said about hitting prospects missing the mark can be true of pitchers as well. Similarly, some pitchers do OK in the minors then turn it up significantly in the majors (like deGrom).

Tom Brennan said...

Resse, deGrom point very true. He clearly had great stuff, and was sort of a pitching novice, who caught on and then took off.

Hobie said...

Three words: T. J. Rivera.

I'm still pissed.

John From Albany said...

Hobie, I thought T.J. hit pretty well until he was hurt. He was not a gold glove however.

I think Frank Cashen proved that getting prospects was a numbers game. Some he acquired like Darling and Sid Fernandez turned out great. Others like Tom Gorman, Billy Beane, not so much.

Tom Brennan said...

Hobie, T.J. Rivera was a righty version of Jeff McNeil, except not as athletic. Both were high average, low power minor league guys who added some power (in McNeil's case, possibly a ton of power).

I mean, TJR's resume is strong: 344 MLB PAs, .304/.335/.435? Those are impressive career numbers.

Not all that much inferior to David Wright's .296/.376/.491, although that is a loose comparison.

So hard to believe he got sidetracked by Tommy John surgery. And suddenly, he will be 32 in late October. Hopefully he gets another real chance.

Tom Brennan said...

TJ does have a little over 2 years of MLB service time, so I guess he made a little over $1 million in his career. At least he got that much.

Mack Ade said...

I checked my bucket list...

No Bosch.

Reese Kaplan said...

I don't know about that...there might very well be some Bosch on my bucket list:

https://www.whisky.com/fileadmin/_processed_/9/8/csm_0_94fadf_bosch0000_aw_4f4b7c5f2c.jpg

or

https://res.cloudinary.com/ratebeer/image/upload/w_250,c_limit/beer_29856.jpg

Tom Brennan said...

I am just glad the Mets finally put the kibosh on Bosch.