12/14/20

Tom Brennan: Could Steve Matz Be the Next Andrew Miller?


Now that the Mets have a fine new reliever in Trevor May, a fine new solid catcher signing in James McCann, who will save many dollars over the passed-over JTR, and a fine new GM named Jared Porter, plus $20 million in Kohls Bonus Cash courtesy of the not-so-fine Robinson “PED” Cano, the Mets remake is well underway.  

100 wins or bust.  Nothing less will do.

Part of that 100 win journey will have to do with Steve Matz.

Matz.started his career 11-1.  After that, 20-40. 

That's a long stretch of substandard starting pitching.  

Substitute Just Plain Lousy for Substandard if you'd like.


Like the old "Life Alert" commercial, especially in 2020, as a starter, he seems to have fallen down and he can’t get up.


But maybe the bullpen would be his salvation.  



After all, it was for fellow lefty Andrew Miller.


Miller started his career as a starter.


Simply put, he was awful: 


67 starts, 20-27,  5.70 ERA, just 255 Ks in 325 innings.  


His last 9 seasons, he’s relieved instead, and had truly sensational seasons: 


Two seasons with ERAs below 1.50.


Two others barely above 2.00. 


Years where he fanned 123 in 74 IP, 100 in 61 IP, and 103 in 62 IP.


In 2015 and 2016, he was 13-3 with 48 saves.


Sensational.  Drastically better ERA and K rate as a reliever. 


Like two different people. 


And Miller's made a ton of dough in his career as a pen guy.  


Dough he would likely not have seen if he remained a starter.


Success vs. failure.


So it got me to thinking: 


Why can’t Matz try the bullpen, and in fact embrace it?


Not view it as a demotion, but instead as a career upgrade? 


Maybe, just maybe, he can succeed like Andrew Miller did when he stopped starting and took up residence in the bullpen.  A career adjustment might be just what Matz needs.

6 comments:

Remember1969 said...

I have wondered the same thing. Can he overcome the 'first inning jitters', as traditionally the first inning has been the worst inning of his career. Perhaps that does not translate to the bullpen, as it is really a completely different mindset. Worth a try, as he does not look like a successful starter.

Tom Brennan said...

Remember 1969, look at his record after his 11-1 career start. I would not trust him starting for a team that hopes to win in 2021. Hence, let him relieve. Hopefully he can have a renaissance

Remember1969 said...

100% agree. To me, it is either a trade for a fresh start with somebody else for some other hopefully more useful pieces, or the bullpen try. I like the left hander out there. I think your analogy to Miller (or Lugo?) is a good one. I am pretty sure there are a lot of others as well.

Reese Kaplan said...

There are other pitchers who were mediocre as starters who thrived in relief like Dennis Eckersley. Then there were relievers who were good at what they did and fell flat as starters like Seth Lugo. Then there are others who fail in both roles like Robert Gsellman.

Right now I don't know what to make of Steve Matz. His talent is there but I wonder if it's mental acuity or nervousness or something else that is sabotaging his success.

Anonymous said...

In my view, Matz is a finicky cat with a long history of arm ailments. I do not see him being a workmanlike reliever. Hard to imagine him possessing bounceback-ability.

It's such an insane gap between "being a functional ML reliever" and "Andrew Miller," that the question hardly merits asking.

Somebody must believe in him to hand over $5.2 million.

My fingers are crossed.

Do I think he could put up a 4.00 ERA and win games in 2021? Sure, it's possible.

Jimmy

Tom Brennan said...

Jimmy, I outlined a possible alternative outcome for Matz if he embraces it as much as Jared Porter seems ready to embrace his new job. I agree with you - unlikely. But I present it as a possibility. Many baseball possibilities never become actualities.

James McCann seems to be one that became an actuality (and hopefully will continue to do so)