Like the old "Life Alert" commercial, especially in 2020, as a starter, he seems to have fallen down and he can’t get up.
But maybe the bullpen would be his salvation.
Miller started his career as a starter.
Simply put, he was awful:
67 starts, 20-27, 5.70 ERA, just 255 Ks in 325 innings.
His last 9 seasons, he’s relieved instead, and had truly sensational seasons:
Two seasons with ERAs below 1.50.
Two others barely above 2.00.
Years where he fanned 123 in 74 IP, 100 in 61 IP, and 103 in 62 IP.
In 2015 and 2016, he was 13-3 with 48 saves.
Sensational. Drastically better ERA and K rate as a reliever.
Like two different people.
And Miller's made a ton of dough in his career as a pen guy.
Dough he would likely not have seen if he remained a starter.
Success vs. failure.
So it got me to thinking:
Why can’t Matz try the bullpen, and in fact embrace it?
Not view it as a demotion, but instead as a career upgrade?
Maybe, just maybe, he can succeed like Andrew Miller did when he stopped starting and took up residence in the bullpen. A career adjustment might be just what Matz needs.
6 comments:
I have wondered the same thing. Can he overcome the 'first inning jitters', as traditionally the first inning has been the worst inning of his career. Perhaps that does not translate to the bullpen, as it is really a completely different mindset. Worth a try, as he does not look like a successful starter.
Remember 1969, look at his record after his 11-1 career start. I would not trust him starting for a team that hopes to win in 2021. Hence, let him relieve. Hopefully he can have a renaissance
100% agree. To me, it is either a trade for a fresh start with somebody else for some other hopefully more useful pieces, or the bullpen try. I like the left hander out there. I think your analogy to Miller (or Lugo?) is a good one. I am pretty sure there are a lot of others as well.
There are other pitchers who were mediocre as starters who thrived in relief like Dennis Eckersley. Then there were relievers who were good at what they did and fell flat as starters like Seth Lugo. Then there are others who fail in both roles like Robert Gsellman.
Right now I don't know what to make of Steve Matz. His talent is there but I wonder if it's mental acuity or nervousness or something else that is sabotaging his success.
In my view, Matz is a finicky cat with a long history of arm ailments. I do not see him being a workmanlike reliever. Hard to imagine him possessing bounceback-ability.
It's such an insane gap between "being a functional ML reliever" and "Andrew Miller," that the question hardly merits asking.
Somebody must believe in him to hand over $5.2 million.
My fingers are crossed.
Do I think he could put up a 4.00 ERA and win games in 2021? Sure, it's possible.
Jimmy
Jimmy, I outlined a possible alternative outcome for Matz if he embraces it as much as Jared Porter seems ready to embrace his new job. I agree with you - unlikely. But I present it as a possibility. Many baseball possibilities never become actualities.
James McCann seems to be one that became an actuality (and hopefully will continue to do so)
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