I was looking at the currently listed AAA roster for Syracuse on the Mets website, from the perspective of a guy who wonders who on the list has what it takes to make the big leagues (either for the first time, or again) as more than a marginal cup of coffee guy who can't cut it when he gets there.
The Mets have had so many of those strugglers over the years. They fulfil their dream of making the big leagues, but they only hurt the Mets' chances many times, because they can't really make the grade.
From the current list, which I am sure will get maneuvered quite a bit by Opening Day 2021, here is how I break it down:
Seven Players With a Decent or Better Chance to Show Up in the Bigs in the Future:
Stephen Nogosek RP – the fact that he had an ERA close to 1.00 in his 2019 season in relief in AA and AAA and allowed just a hit every 2 innings that year, despite his brief failure out of the Mets pen in 2019, gives me the sense he might have some future big league success.
Jose Peraza SS – just due to turn 27 next spring, Peraza has a .270 major league batting average over roughly 2,000 plate appearances and speed too. One would think that a major league return is not if, but where, for Mr. Peraza.
Jose Peroza 3B – younger than Bret Baty, he hit 10 HRs and knocked in 42 runs in 49 games while hitting .263 in rookie ball in 2019 at age 19. Hard to tell this early, but so far, so good - let’s see if he can build on that in 2021.
Wilmer Reyes 2B – as our very own John From Albany periodically reminds us, he had a fine 2019 in Brooklyn, and got good feedback in 2020, so as of now, sights are set high for a guy whose first and last names are very familiar to Mets fans.
Ryder Ryan P – potential demonstrated in 2019 - the hard thrower was 2-1, 3.05 with 40 Ks in 44 IP in AA.
Mallex Smith CF – super speedy and he has had real
moments of MLB success already, having stolen 120 of 154 at the big league level with an average of .255 in nearly 1,500 at bats.
Arodys Vizcaino P – he has pitched
some at the major league level and done OK.
Eleven others in the running, but less likely (IMO) to reach the majors in a significant way, if at all:
Quinn Brodey RF – has slowly ground upwards since being drafted in the 3rd round, but his numbers have never stood out - so far. Needs to pick up the pace quite a bit to be, say, a Jake Marisnick-comparable player someday.
Luis Carpio 2B – possible future utility guy whose hitting has gradually improved, but who needs
to up his hitting game to reach prime time.
Tony Dibrell P – got smacked around in AA in 2019,
so he needs to be a lot better to show up in Queens against vastly tougher hitters - without a ticket, anyway.
Harol Gonzalez P – had a fine
bounce back 2019 in AA and AAA, but I’m unclear if his stuff is sufficiently MLB caliber. Seems like the kind of pitcher who might find it tough making a higher caliber Mets team
Wagner Lagrange LF – has hit well,
but not great ,and low on power. Big gap between what he has done and the majors. Now 25, and he needs a big 2021.
Shervyen Newton SS – considered a
really fine athlete but he fanned a whole lot in 2019 in A ball (139 times in 109 games). Can he significantly cut down the Ks against far tougher pitching? He'll have to prove it to me.
Dedniel Nunez P – pitched pretty
well in 2019 (4.39 ERA in A ball but 94 Ks in 80 IP), but needs to show more.
Michel Otanez P – he had a solid
2019 in rookie ball, but not “WOW” numbers. Too soon to really prognosticate,
David Rodriguez C – catchers always
have a chance, but he hit just .225 in AA in 2019.
Needs to up the O.
Corey Taylor P – gives up a lot of career hits, but very few HRs. Maybe he’ll get a shot at some point, but he hasn't yet and soon turns 28. Usually, that tells you something.
Jeremy Vasquez 1B – solid bat, but needs to hit both for more average and power at a highly competitive position to break into the bigs.
Everyone else listed on the Syracuse roster right now?
I don't think they'll make it.
That's my take.
They all have the chance to prove that they're better than what I am indicating.
Of course, the ultimate long shot is none other than Tim Tebow. Never count out a former QB, says John Elway.
10 comments:
Most of the, ahem, quality at AAA seems to reflect on the Brodie Van Wagenen nightmare. He dealt away the best prospects and left us with, well, no one who appears to be a future MLB starting player.
Reese, couldn't agree more. All of the best current prospects are young guys who were in low A ball or lower in 2019.
None of those that were in St Lucie or above in 2019 do I look at and say, "Now THAT is a guy who will really make the Mets better.
If you split our minors between higher minors and lower, we might rank 30th in high minors and in the top 10 in the lower minors.
I am hoping that in 2021, remembering that guys worked to improve and physically mature in the lost 2020 season, that we see a lot of those lower minors guys in AA and even AAA. I'd rather have them struggle against superior competition and grow that way rather than be coddled.
In case you were wondering, "what about Szapucki?" he isn't on that Syracuse roster list.
A number of these guys are available to anyone in the minor-league phase of Rule 5 tomorrow...basically without any stipulations.
Do we know who is on the AAA protected list?...does anyone?
If you are on the AAA roster, you are protected from the minor league phase of the draft. Links to Binghamton, St. Lucie and (until it changes to another team) Columbia are on our Mack's Mets home page.
So you're saying that the AAA Roster and the AAA Reserved list are the same thing. When was the last time the Mets made roster trans. to the AAA roster in order to get players protected?
I have seen some of these names on the Rule 5 lists being floated online as available.
"Baseball America took a look at 50 players in their preview that they believe could be drafted, including three players from the Mets. Marcel Renteria, Michel Otanez, and Shervyen Newton are mentioned as potential picks from the Mets system."
I've also seen Harol Gonzalez listed on some...I guess tomorrow we'll see.
Nickel - any player not part of the 40 man MLB roster is eligible for the rule 5 Draft. Any man not on the AAA roster is eligible for the minor league portion.
Here is a very complete explanation on the Draft from Baseball America -
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/
Here was my last post on the Rule 5 which I did the night the Mets added players to the AAA roster to keep them out of the minor league portion of the draft.
https://macksmets.blogspot.com/2020/11/john-from-albany-mets-add-players-to.html
Beyond the Mets full season minor league affiliates Syracuse, Binghamton, Brooklyn, and St. Lucie, I would like to ask what we think is going to happen with all the rookie league players who have already played short season baseball at the former NY Penn league, Appalachian league, and Gulf Coast leagues?
Even without anyone advancing from the DSL, I count 41pitchers alone who either have to advance to the already full St. Lucie (low-A) roster (formerly Columbia), or slide back into the GCL even if they had already advanced to the NY Penn league. And the GCL roster is already crowded as well. It is possible for some of the low-A players at SLU to be pushed up onto the high-A BKLN team, but these players can only be pushed so far so fast. Or, a ton of them will need to be released even though the Mets had already released 39+ players when the MiLB contraction was first announced back in the spring.
Clearly, it would help to have two GCL teams like he Skankees, Phillies, and others, and it's very convenient to be able to advance player from GCL to SLU being in the same location, but so many of these players are ready for full-season baseball that they really don't belong in the short season GCL. Especially after not playing at all in 2020.
Specifically, the high draft choices from 2019 and 2020, who normally would start in the GCL, and played well at the Brooklyn Alternate site in 2020, should be playing full-season baseball in 2021, not short season at GCL. Ditto, the players who stood out at the Instructional league.
This is going to be very difficult for somebody to sort out, and a real heartbreak for many of our recent draft choices over the past 5 years.
Nickel - seems like a lot of players will be cut but MLB is saying that they will allow teams to carry 180 minor league players. If there will be 2 GCL teams and 2 DSL teams in addition to the 4 announced yesterday - that's 22+ players per team. With just 1 DSL and 1 GCL team that's 30 players per team. That may be the way they go unless they don't count the DSL teams.
Thanks, John
Or if they're not counting the DSLs, they could have 30 at SYR, BNG, & BKL, and 45 at low A & 45 at GCL. Or 40 at low A and 2 GCLs of 25 each.
Some combination with a load at low A levels.
But that only really works without counting the DSLs.
That's what it feels like they'll need.
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