There is a reason new Mets owner Steve Cohen is a billionaire and I am not.
I've bought Amazon stock more than once on the rise, then there would be a sustained pull back, a tech sell off, and I'd be losing money on paper, not want to lose more, sell a chunk at a loss to avoid further paper losses, and subsequently realize that Russian spies must have been monitoring to see exactly when I'd sell, so they could issue an immediate Amazon buy signal. Up, up, and away. After a while, you learn....
PATIENCE IN INVESTING IS IMPORTANT.
Fans got so understandably pumped with the "franchise big bucks savior" Cohen's arrival, and so many of those suffering fans want it all fixed, and they want it fixed NOW.
Understandable...we've been screwed for so long, suffering from Acute Wilpon Syndrome. What better way to know that long nightmare is over than to have Uncle Steve swoop in and (in the words of Jim Cramer) BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY!
They see the Atlanta Braves sign people and they panic, saying, "What About Us?"
But...
PATIENCE IN INVESTING IS IMPORTANT.
The Mets have made 3 significant moves already:
A # 1 catcher in James McCann.
A # 2 starter in Marcus Stroman.
A wicked bullpen arm in Trevor May.
Uncle Steve hasn't spent a lot - yet.
And despite the Cohen billions, I think as a wise investor, he won't be a market leader in grossly overpaying for top end talent.
Investor Cohen knows that the Mets' 26-34 was essentially a 70 win pace over 162 games.
He knew that many Mets "depth" players in 2020 were the equivalent of owning non-performing junk bonds.
So his investment fund leader, Sandy Alderson, has patiently added 3 very important investments so far - which, to the impatient Mets fan, is not much, but which is more than most teams in baseball to this point.
James McCann, to me, adds 5 wins over the 2020 catching talent, Marcus Stroman worth 5 wins over the 2020 pitching non-talent, and Trevor May 3 wins (minimum) over the bullpen disaster of 2020. Add in Noah Syndergaard's likely partial season return being worth about 4 wins over 2020's fire-starters, and by my count, we are roughly ay around 85 or so full season wins or so for 2021, so far.
Now, the Mets have also added GM Jared Porter, the guy who has 4 World Series rings, who understands the importance of scouring markets for the best available talent for the price, and the vital need to have real, honest-to-Pete DEPTH.
Not the kind of Wilpon, fingers-crossed non-depth acquisitions that gave the Mets more than a dozen pitchers in 2020 with ERAs above 5.00 who threw 48% of their innings allowing 7.4 runs per 9 innings. And basically gave 2020 away.
But REAL depth. The kind that wins a lot more games.
THAT DISASTROUS RESULT WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN IN 2021, AND PROBABLY AT ANY TIME IN THE COHEN REGIME.
As Mack astutely noted, echoing Sandy Alderson, the signing of McCann over Realmuto sends a clear signal that the Mets will not jeopardize their extensive rebuild waiting for all of their top target guys to wait for their markets to develop in order to make up their minds....the U.S.S. Mets ship may sail while they dawdle.
If they want to be part of the remaining major moves by the Mets to drive their team into the mid 90s in projected wins, both in in 2021 and in future seasons, they may have to lower their asking price a bit, and not dawdle.
Or the patient investor may find his patience exhausted, and invest elsewhere.
After all, not investing in a Trevor Bauer could free up money for 2-3 other very solid moves. Same with George Springer.
How much do they want to be with a team on the rise, in big-market New York? If Cohen Co. does not want to invest in them this year, because they are playing too-hard-to-get, there is always next off-season to sign a top tier guy or two.
I think at least one of the biggies see the Mets by-pass Realmuto and decide they don't want to be bypassed, and tell their agent they are ready to sell - to the Mets - at a high but not unnecessarily stratospheric price.
So, the way I see it, we fans need to be patient. My sense is that no one wants a big turn around in 2021 more than Steve Cohen.
A patient, and clearly superior, investor. Who knows that:
PATIENCE IN INVESTING IS IMPORTANT.
11 comments:
That's a great analysis, Tom. Especially your last point of not letting the free agent dictate the market but the Mets dictating the market. The Mets are not going to beg for your services.
Great analysis dead on. Why does Boras always get the best deals for his guys? Because hes really good at it and he waits the other side out. Well, meet Steve Cohen. They are both guys who have risen to the top of their industries because they know how to make deals by manipulating the market. Bottom line, we all want to win a WS, but its great to know the team is finally in great hands.
Thanks, Holmer and Richard.
I think at the end of the day we will be happy where we are at. And probably Steve Cohen will end up spending millions less than he would have if he were over-eager.
That said, I fervently hope we will have a deep and killer roster assembled in the weeks ahead.
It's kind of nice to read about a team thinking not just about its starters but also its bench. It's unlike the days when infielders included the likes of Eric Campbell, Omar Quintanilla and James Loney.
Its a whole new ballgame. Im not sure if people realize just how the Steve Cohens of the world operate. This guy is big-time, he earned his money and he competes at the top level of the most competitive business on earth where you are what your record says you are. He is CREATING something and he wants it to look, feel and operate like something he can be proud of.
"Im not in this to be mediocre"
I for one believe him
Reese, my favorite examples of players a Cohen-owned team will avoid are Broxton and Sewald. Why use substandard players that will make you miss the play offs?
We need to win the Division, or at least a wild card, in 2021. Only a rash of injuries should be an acceptable excuse for not getting there.
Last year, my brother screamed after they got Betances: THEY BETTER NOT THINK THEY'RE DONE WITH THIS BULLPEN! The Wilpons thought so, and they were dead wrong.
Richard, you summed it up very well. Cohen hates losing. I am sure he wants this franchise to be the best in baseball. For a long time.
Me? I'll take it consistently being in the top 5, with years where we are # 1, like we were in 1986.
When I first read your title "Patient Investing, Mets Style", I thought you were going to talk about all the sick people they have obtained :-(
Please, no more Jed Lowrie articles.
Jed Lowrie - a classic - I sure hope they had that contract insured.
Remember 1969, it is funny to think about how drastically different pay vs. performance can be in BB.
Lowrie, 7 hitless at bats, $20 million.
TJ Rivera hits .304 in 344 plate appearances, made about $1 million.
yeah, funny is one word for that . . sad is another . . or perhaps ludicrous ..
At the timing of the signing I said, "What the ???" Why? and it worked out far worse than I thought it would.
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