OK, the Mets have signed Trevor May, James McCann, and brought back Marcus Stroman. That represents a clear degree of improvement, but if you want to be a contender in 2021, there are still significant holes to fill.
So how would you, the reader, let’s say as a GM named Stan, do the rest of the rebuild?
Who would you acquire, trade for, and what would your 26 man roster look like? And probably your top 30 to 32 players for 2021, since dipping into the minors always is a reality during the season.
Presuming of course that the goal is a true championship contender in 2021, and that there is also an interest in not just what is done for the 2021 season, but to retain flexibility to acquire players or blend in prospects past the 2021 season.
Per Spotrac, you sit $53 million under the cap currently, which constitutes your elbow room. Spotrac lists everyone currently making up the Mets roster currently.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/payroll/
So all that said what’s your plan, Stan?
23 comments:
I fly u to San Diego under the cover of darkness and kidnap Fernando Tatis!
My priority would be a CF first and foremost.
After that one more starting pitcher either the recently posted Japanese pitcher, Tanaka, or Odorizzi. If possible, more depth for the bench.
Also need to leave some budget to extend Conforto and Thor
Keralyjac, that seems like a valid first step!
John, I want at least one more reliever too - Hand or Hendricks. Maybe both, and Tanaka, unless they feel the posted Japanese pitcher is better than Tanaka going forward.
Tom the big problem with the bullpen is that you have thtee guys making big dollars with, so far little to show - Familia, Betances, and Brad Brach. Maybe a hand or Hendriks would sign now under a big up front bonus then take less money next year and more annual money in 2022. Mets may need to be creative here.
We (Sandy) could have non tendered bellatances and Brach and we should have
We should have applied those dollars to this group of free agents like Hand
Eddie, good points. Maybe Betances comes back big - but we kind of hoped that with Lowrie, didn't we?
There's some confusion/misinformation here.
I believe that Betances and Brach exercised PLAYER OPTIONS.
Jimmy
Yes, Betances and Brach exercised player options. They couldn't be non-tendered. The only way to get out from their contracts is to trade them. If if they released them outright, they'd still be on the hook for the money. :-(
As to the topic of the article, I am on the same page as John.
Centerfield first. Hopefully Springer.
Starting pitching second. I am a intrigued by Sugano, not so much a Tanaka fan, Odorizzi is OK, I think Paxton and Walker are two of my risk/reward looks. I would also like to explore a trade for a team-controllable pitcher like Zach Plesac or Joe Musgrove. Snell would be great, but I fear the prospect cost. I am on the train now that Matz can make a big recovery with McCann's assistance.
I am actually OK with the bullpen as it stands, although Hand, as a lefty would be very nice. We don't need another top shelf righty (Hendriks)
Perhaps use some imagination and financial creativity to create a great fielding infield.
And yes, figure out the Conforto and Syndergaard contracts before they become issues. No shudda/wudda/cudda articles next year. I actually tried to start a thread of ideas about this subject with a comment on the Mets360 site last week and didn't get anywhere . . any interest in discussion the options for these two in a separate thread on this site?
Remember 1969, you tee up the thread questions here, and we can certainly put them out there.
Sugano May be a route to go in, depending on cost.
Thanks Tom .. I gotta go move some more snow (again) for a bit, but I'll be back on later today to post some thoughts . .
I think for the first time in Mets history we should go over the luxury tax a bit. This way we can take advantage of a buyers market even at positions than may already be manned by someone already. That way we can trade our existing players at those positions to fill up our farm system or trade for pitching.
1) Look to buy low on Didi Gregorious and Justin Turner and trade Rosario and JD Davis for prospects.
2) Sign 2 of Hand, Hendricks, Bradley, Rosenthal or Yates. Then try and trade a Diaz, Lugo (worried about his arm falling off and Tanaka arm as well) and/ or Familia.
3) I would see if there is any validity to those Sonny Gray for Rosario rumors.
4) sign 2 of Odorizzi, Paxton, Walker, Kluber or Richards
5) sign Springer
6) sign 1 or of Gardner, Almora, Pedrson, Profar or bubba starting for left field and reserve OF. Then trade Nimmo for some prospects. Does anyone think we are going to sign Nimmo long term? I don’t think so, so
I think this would be the best time to trade him, 2 years before free agency.
7) I would love to trade Nimmo and JD for Carlos Carrasco who is a little bit on the old side ( I think 34) but who pitched very well last year and always has been a great pitcher.
8) sign Curt Casali or Alex Avila to be backup catcher
So my ideal lineup would be
Springer
McNiel
Conforto
Justin Turner
Dom Smith (1B or LF)
Alonso (DH or 1B)
Didi
McCann
Gardner (LF or bench) or Pitcher
DeGrom
Stroman
Carrasco
Gray
Taijuan Walker/ Peterson/ Synndergarrd
I think this brings us about 20 million over and we only lose our 2nd round pick. We get 2/3 SP to our staff just in case we lose Stroman and Synndergarrd at years end. What do y’all think?
Sugano: I saw this great 16 minute video of him pitching against USA in WBC. I really liked him. Maybe you will too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T23oQpOYBcQ
Zozo, I like it except Gardner. May be good, but oozes YANKEE.
Check out that link I added just above and watch Sugano pitch. I liked what I saw a lot.
Springer, 2 of the following 3 - Odorizzi, Tanaka, Walker and finish it off with Hendriks or Hand for the bullpen (Hand gives us a lefty). If the price is right, consider a trade for Lindor or Arenado, only if it will cost you current players, not prospects and you can get them to sign a long term deal (Lindor) or sign away the opt-out (Arenado) Players to consider in the deal - some combination of Rosario, Davis, Smith (2 of those 3) and a lower level prospect, maybe two. This all keeps you under the luxury tax. In this scenario, we have to give up on Bauer, but we can fill out the lineup pretty well with these pickups.
Jack Hipp, I cant argue with that roster. It gets us to 95+. Nice job.
Jack Hipp, I cant argue with that roster. It gets us to 95+. Nice job.
Kind of on the same thread here, and certainly up to Stan the GM to resolve:
2021-2022 Mets Free Agents: What to do?
At this point in time, the Mets will have three major players hitting the free agent market after the 2021 season. There have been a some press rumblings about possible extensions for Michael Conforto and to a lesser degree Noah Syndergaard. There has been much less (if any) about extending Marcus Stroman.
There are really three options for upcoming free agents: sign them early before they hit the market, trade them a year ahead or at the trade deadline to maximize the return, or let them play out the year and see what happens. The qualifying offer is a potential other option that would yield a good draft pick if the player signs elsewhere.
I think it is worthwhile thinking a bit about each of their situations now; perhaps we can avoid the 'Zack Wheeler 20-20 hindsight debate'.
Conforto: The best option here is to make every effort to sign him before he hits the market. The big question is what would it take?
Perhaps a good discussion would be George Springer, not to compare their careers and statistics, but to attempt to judge the value of a contract. It is thought that Springer will command a 5 year deal between $25 and $30M per year. While he is a centerfielder and generally regarded as a better fielder, he will also play his first year of the F/A contract at age 31. Conforto will be 29.
Through their age 27 seasons, Springer was worth 17.3 fWar, while Conforto accumulated 16.0. Springer has also has very solid post season stats to pad his resume.
My take is that now is the time to sign Michael Conforto for 5 years $105, an average of $21M.
Final note on Conforto: the 2021-22 free agent market for rightfielders is pretty weak with Blackmon, Fowler, Castellanos, Calhoon, and Gregory Polanco being the others.
Up next: Syndergaard and Stroman
2021-22 Free Agents, part 2
Syndergaard: This is a little more difficult because of the Tommy John surgery. The sensible path would seem to be to wait for him to come back and show that he is healthy and can take the ball every fifth day for at least half the season. If he comes back in June as advertised, a contract proposal during the All-Star break might be in order. Also, depending on the depth of the Mets staff at the time, it might also be prudent to work out a deadline deal, where he could probably yield a couple top prospects from a team needing one more pitcher to get over the hump in 2021. Of course, that team is most likely to be the Mets.
What would he be worth in a new contract? He will be 29 during most of his 2022 season. Let's baseline Wheeler's 5 year $118M contract as a start point. Through their age 27 seasons, Syndergaard amassed 18.9 fWar, Wheeler 7.8. Wheeler had the advantage of showing he was healthy for two years entering free agency.
Common sense is that if he comes back healthy, Thor will want to wait until after the season to show a full year of results. He will be among quite a few very good pitchers in next year's market, but will be the youngest and certainly most accomplished for his age. If he comes back strong, he could very well be looking at a 6 year deal in the $150 to $165M range, well above Wheeler's contract.
Do the Mets do that deal? This is a tough call. Perhaps the right way to handle this is to offer him the qualifying offer after 2021 and 'stay engaged'. It all depends on the other actions taken and committed dollars at that time.
Stroman: Marcus Stroman will also be one of the younger starting pitchers hitting the market after 2021. Because of his accepting the qualifying offer this year, he will no longer be eligible for it next year. When healthy he has been fairly consistent with 3.3, 3.4, 3.4, and 3.9 fWar seasons to date. He did not pitch in 2020 due to COVID concerns. Assuming he comes back in 2020 and has a normal to slightly above normal season, his contract will most likely trail Wheeler's. Does a 4 year $75M deal sound about right? That might be a bit low, but that seems like a deal the Mets might want to look at.
Other Mets free agents after 2021 are Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betantes, and Brad Brach. There is certainly no reason to talk early deals with any of them and in fact the only possible one to look at after the season might be Matz, depending if he can right the ship and become a trusted back end of the rotation guy, although 2020 may have played with the fans hearts just a bit too much. Will any of them still be with the club by then?
Thoughts? What do you other Mets fans want to do with the upcoming free-agents?
Let me post those up at 9:30 tomorrow and see what the folks think. Good?
Sure thing .. go for it .. see what discussion we can get ..
Thanks!
Zozo, if you see this, would you like me to post up your GM plan in an article this week? Post here to let me know. Thanks
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