Reese Kaplan -- It's Not All Bad (and Not All Good)

It’s difficult to watch Spring Training games without fluctuating between the extremes of “We found our own Fernando Tatis, Jr.!” and “These guys are going to be driving Ubers by this time next month!”  The truth is somewhere in between these unrealistic ends of the spectrum fans use to evaluate new players, but draft position often determines who gets the most chances to make a name for himself.  

Just because the scouts and the club thought you were the number one level prospect, that doesn’t necessarily mean you have that level of talent.  Remember that not all players develop at the same rate and each respond differently as they ascend the ladder towards the Majors.  

Think back to a middle infielder playing for Stetson University Hatters as a shortstop and occasional relief pitcher. He was a slick fielder but a light hitter who likely was not going to be able to make the climb to the top.  He was out-of-necessity moved into a more regular pitching role and what he was able to accomplish brought him to the attention of the Mets.  They figured he’d develop into a quality bullpen arm and he was selected in the 9th round of the 2010 draft.

His pitching performance in the Mets minors was uneven.  His first year resulted in a 5.19 ERA in limited appearances.  Then came a year off dealing with injury.  He followed it up with a spectacular second season with a 2.43 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.997. He worked three levels in 2013 and finished again with a mediocre 4.51 ERA and a WHIP of 1.449.  His strikeouts were down a bit and he was giving up far more than a hit per inning pitched.  Then 2014 arrived and he was thrust in the pitching Hell that was Las Vegas.  He started 7 games there with an outstanding 2.58 ERA.  His strikeouts declined again but he managed to keep the hits to almost 1 per IP.  He was brought up to work out of the bullpen despite his minor league career having been as a starting pitcher.  However, an injury to veteran starter Dillon Gee opened the door and he never looked back.

With a rookie year record of 9-6 over 22 starts with a 2.69 ERA, better strikeout numbers than he’d ever posted before and the hits falling very far below one per inning pitched, Jacob deGrom earned himself a Rookie of the Year Award for 2014.  At the time no one knew what to make of this infielder/relief pitcher combo who had turned into a starting pitcher, but no one was regretting his stellar performance.  

In his sophomore campaign he went 14-8 with an even better 2.54 ERA which netted him his first All Star Game nod and a 7th place finish in the Cy Young Award voting.  It didn’t take long for him to push it even further with back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 to go along with two more All Star Game appearances.  He was denied his third straight Cy Young Award in the abbreviated 2020 season despite posting his best strikeout numbers, and his best WHIP since his first Cy Young in 2018.

No one saw this kind of performance coming from deGrom, just as no one saw the number of higher draft picks who stumbled out of the gate but who kept getting renewed chances despite not delivering what was expected of them.  I won’t belabor with an extended list of failure, nor will I lay all the blame at the foot of the scouts or front office who made the selections.  

I will use one example of a number four draft pick that hit very close to home for me.  He was a stellar high school player by the name of Eudor Garcia whose coach referred to his batting stats as being like video game numbers.  Seeing a native El Pasoan get tabbed that high for my favorite team was doubly exciting.

There has been a lot of speculation about what led to his early termination from the Mets.  Rumors surfaced about poor training habits, possible substance abuse issues and lack of commitment to succeed.  His output was still solid in terms of batting contact, though the power was pretty much non-existent.  

He floated to the Mexican league in 2018 to try to continue his path to the big leagues, but a quick look at his personal dimensions suggest it was not going to happen.  He stands 6 feet tall which is a bit larger than most folks in this area, but he’s tipping the scales at 264 pounds.  It suggests he doesn’t have the speed or agility to make it on singles hitting alone.  During his last foray into professional baseball he hit just .261 with 1 HR and 9 RBIs over the course of 115 ABs.  Extrapolate that over the course of a full season and it would be 5 HRs and 45 RBIs.  That doesn’t speak to high draft choice potential, but gaining a significant amount of weight and not training properly is on him, not on the failure of the team personnel.  

So as the games start getting broadcast on TV, try to remember all that glitters is not gold and all that stinks isn’t necessarily garbage.