Reese Kaplan -- Planning Who to Sign to a Long-Term Deal

During the Spring Training lull out here without television coverage a number of topics come to mind among Mets fans.  Today I met with a group of regulars mostly in the NYC area for our Thursday night chat session on Zoom.  During the meeting after the usual exchange of pleasantries came a few topics of interest that brought some surprising reactions.  

The first one was really a bit of an unpredictable one...what to do with the Michael Conforto contract extension.  While most people have been laser-focused on Francisco Lindor’s contract and, to a lesser extent, what they will do about pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman, the assumption has always been the Mets will simply sign their right fielder to a profitable and long term deal that will make him happy and a Met for a very long time.

However, as you start to dig into the details you realize that it may not be quite as simple as folks suggest.  First of all, his agent is none other than Scott Boras.  Mr. Boras has made his bones on holding out for unreasonable contracts in terms of length and compensation rate.  He then plays one club’s offers against another to start a media blaze that will roast whomever doesn’t sign his client to new found riches.

The numbers being bandied about draw parallels to former Houston Astro and current Toronto Blue Jay, George Springer.  His new deal will pay him $150 million over a period of six years.  For those folks too lazy to get out their calculator, that’s $25 million per year.  Take a look at his numbers and you will see he’s been a highly credible player.  An average season would include 35 HRs, 93 RBIs, 10 SBs and a .270 AVG.  He does that while playing an above average defense in center field. 

Now look at what you get from Michael Conforto.  Take off your orange and blue glasses and view the real numbers.  His 162 game average would provide 30 HRs, 87 RBIs, 4 SBs and a .259 AVG.  He plays adequate defense in right field, not a position that is defensively as deeply valued as center.  His best season was this past 60-game version when he finally hit above .300 to raise his career average to that modest .259.  

So folks say think $25 million per year but for eight years since he’s two years younger than Springer and he would proudly claim a $200 million contract for the duration of his next several years.  Well, that number seems a bit high given that the offensive output and defensive abilities are a bit below what Springer delivers.  Also, factor in that Springer’s money is now Canadian which means it is worth even less than $25 million per season.

That led to the discussion of just how valuable Conforto is to the Mets.  I volunteered an unpopular analogy of someone who was not highly regarded by the fans and manned left field, Kevin McReynolds.  He spent six years with the Mets during which he averaged 23 HRs, 87 RBIs and a .265 AVG along with 10 SBs.  Do you think he sniffed that kind of money?  Granted, it was in the 80s and 90s when he played, but his top salary was $3.7 million during one season with Kansas City.  No one mourned when he left, but you get the feeling all hell would break loose if a highly similar player in Conforto was somehow allowed to leave.

Now it gets even stranger.  Everyone says there are no high profile outfielders due to be free agents next year and no one seems to embrace that antiquated concept of trades.  So who would fill that positional vacancy if he left?

Deep breath…

In 2022 the Mets will have a new 2nd baseman by the name of Robinson Cano.  Yes, that same Robinson Cano who is enjoying a salary-free 2021 courtesy of his syringe.  The Mets are obligated to pay him two more seasons, so for one year he might be the interim solution.  Jeff McNeil could move back to left field and Dom Smith could move to right.  The Mets save $200 million and field the players they are kind of obligated to pay and use.  

Now if a new Collective Bargaining Agreement makes the DH a real position in the NL, that changes things dramatically.  Pete Alonso could be a DH, Dom Smith could move to 1st and then you really do need an outfielder.  If you went with a J.D. Davis type at DH, then you have a vacancy to fill at third base.  

The fact is that not keeping Conforto would be a tough pill to swallow, but if the price is in that $200 million range, I would wish him well, give him a nice toy at his sendoff and after having him turn down a qualifying offer, try to select a prime future prospect.  Personally I think it’s more important to spend on the pitching staff than it is to try to keep a very good but not best-in-the-game type of player when he will command closer to best-in-the-game type of compensation.