Since I wrote Part 1 of this post, the Mets winning streak came to an anticlimactic end in game 2 against the Nationals on Saturday night. The New York Mets lost that game the same way they have lost many games in this 2021 baseball season: fielding a less-than-optimal starting lineup thanks to a depleted roster and mustering little offense in an eminently winnable game. Then in today's series finale, they failed to convert runs to build a comfortable lead, leading to a heartbreaking (and backbreaking) loss. Raise your hands if you were shocked by either of these outcomes. Anyone? Yeah, me neither.
Of more consequence than a single loss in the game was the likely loss of Brandon Nimmo for the rest of the season with a hamstring injury. While not quite as big of a blow as the series of injuries to Jacob deGrom, Nimmo has been the second most valuable bat in the Mets' lineup this season, just behind Pete Alonso. And, at least through yesterday's games, Nimmo's OPS+ (134) was actually a tics higher than Alonso's (133). Anyway, with only 4 weeks left in the regular season, it would be rather miraculous if Nimmo returned in 2021.
With Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora likely to get most of the time in CF the rest of the way, the already impotent offense will be taking a huge hit. Pillar's OPS+ on the season is well below average at 82. As bad as that is, Almora is actually running a negative OPS+ on the year (-7). Yeah, the offense will be taking a big hit, and the Mets' tough path to the playoffs just got more challenging. And so it goes.
If the Mets drop out of the pennant race before the end of the season, it wouldn't be surprising if OF prospect Khalil Lee got another look. Lee may not be a can't-miss prospect, but Almora has shown no reason to hang onto him beyond this season. Pillar has had some good moments, but this year's offensive output doesn't argue for bringing him back next season, either. CF will be another item on the shopping list for whoever runs the Mets baseball ops this coming offseason. Pillar might put himself back in the running to be a bench bat if he continues to hit in September, but I don't think the Mets want to see him get as many plate appearances as this season.
Anyway, at the end of Part 1, I mentioned Zack Scott's DUI arrest, which would seem to make Scott's future with the Mets rather tentative. It would seem to be incredibly doubtful that Scott would get the permanent GM gig. If Scott returns to work for the New York Mets, it will likely not be the person running the show. He couldn't afford a display of such poor judgment. He will pay the price for it.
One recent piece that I can't agree with is this one from last week by Mike Vacarro in the New York Post. I like Vacarro, but I thought his point on the trade deadline was way off:
But let's be perfectly clear about something: Zack Scott was already on paper-thin ground as acting GM of the Mets. His job performance alone has been, in a word, unacceptable. The Mets are two games under .500, and while that is the product of some team-wide underperformance, make no mistake: when Scott could have made an impact, at the trade deadline, with the Mets still in command of the NL East, he made one trade. Now, that trade has been filled with all kinds of entertainment value, with Javier Baez displaying his full range of engaging and enraging traits in full all month.
But the Braves quietly got much better at the deadline. The Phillies upgraded. So, of course, did the Giants and Dodgers and, let us not forget, the Yankees. Maybe Sandy Alderson can shoulder some of the blame; Alderson, an old target of Met-fan angst, probably deserves as much.
Later in the piece, Vacarro points to some things I do agree with. I thought Scott made a mistake by calling some players out in the press on the injuries and underperformance. Scott wasn't wrong, but that stuff needs to stay within the organization. It made Scott look like he was in over his head as even an acting GM in the chaotic New York market.
But looking at the Mets at the trade deadline, you just have to consider how few prospects the Mets have that other teams want for any valuable trade chip — particularly in this year's superheated market. The Mets had to trade Pete Crow-Armstrong — yet another first-round pick traded in the past few seasons — to obtain Javier Báez. They really couldn't afford to move another of their tiny number of really good prospects.
It's all well and good to hope for the Mets to do much more in the international market and eventually have a deep farm system that will allow them to make deals and have some home-grown talent for their own roster. But international signings are all teenagers years away from the possibility of a Major League career. The top levels of the Mets system are really thin in talent right now, and only holding onto some prospects will allow the Mets to possess some Major League-ready talent.
If they keep trading away kids, the Mets could find themselves in a position where they will need to strongly consider a tear-down in a couple of years. Mets fans could be looking at 2 or 3 90-loss seasons at a minimum. It won't be popular for the Mets to maintain discipline during the next couple of years while attempting to build a productive system, but I do honestly believe that it's important. I don't fault Scott for trades not made.
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