Guppies - some hit better than others.
Pre-season prospect rankings are simply pre-season rankings.
How are ranked hitters actually doing, though?
Performance counts, you see,
So...how would you re-rank them, as I am about to?
The pre-season ranking of the 10 hitters in the Mets' top 15 prospects (the other 5 being pitchers) is shown below, along with comments regarding results so far in 2022.
1. Francisco Alvarez - after starting out in AA going a Herculean 7 for 13 with 3 HRs and 8 RBIs in his first few games, Alvarez has slid to .215, with 4 HRs and 14 RBIs. They apparently adapted to him - he needs to adapt now.
2. Brett Baty - a paltry 1 HR and 6 RBIs in 25 AA games, 30 Ks, .264. He needs to start proving to me he is more than Kirk Nieuwenhuis at the plate. 193 Ks in 167 pro games. Too high, K guy.
3. Ronny Mauricio - 3 HRs, 9 doubles, and 12 RBIs in 23 AA games are nice, but he is hitting .255 with a .293 OBP - so he continues to be a slow work in progress. Baty or Mauricio to me are interchangeable for the #2 and #3 slots.
4. Mark Vientos - on base 4 times Sunday, so he seems to have broken out of his glacier. Hitting .188 with 2 HRs and 12 RBIs in 22 games. He started out frigid for a month in 2021, too. Message to Marky V: all months count. He is a hair below a K per game in his career, which (relatively speaking) is a plus.
6. Alex Ramirez - just 19, and in low A ball, he is 40 for 104 (.385). Quite the number. In his last 6 game series, he was 0 for 5 in one game, and a blistering 15 for 23 in the other 5 games. Did I say he was 19? Wow.
7. Khalil Lee - regressed, so far, at AAA, .155 with 4 RBIs in 21 games, 30 Ks. Ain't purty, Ma.
8 Nick Plummer - the 25 year old who looks like a terrific athlete has hit .255 in 17 games, with 4 HRs, 12 RBIs, 21 Ks. Decent.
13. Simon Juan - too young to drink, too young for any official at bats yet. You tell me where to rank him.
14. Jaylen Palmer - in Brooklyn, a self-explanatory 8 for 60, just 2 doubles, 32 Ks. Not going well.
15. Carlos Cortes - after his blistering AA start in 2021, I was excited. In 26 AAA games this year, a weak .205/.272/.289. Disappointing. In his career, though, just 212 Ks in 279 games, which is always a plus.
One standout above. Ramirez.
One unranked standout, not above...Wyatt Young.
After 106 pro at bats in 2021 and 2022, mostly in rookie ball, the diminutive IF Mr. Young gets rocket-boosted all the way to AAA, and boy, was I shocked. But in 19 AAA games, he shows why:
.352 with a .446 OBP. Wow. I can think of no other Mets player in the minors in recent decades who would have had just 106 lower minor at bats, gotten promoted all the way to AAA, and not abjectly failed. Not one.
Young has not only not failed, he is excelling. Best hitter on Syracuse during his 19 games there - by far.
He is .350/.431/.441 overall in his short career so far. And unlike many of the above dudes, he has fanned just 36 times in 50 games. He is on fact the only guy above besides Cortes with substantially less than a K per game in his career.
So, here are my prospect hitters rankings (pitchers excluded), thinking long term:
1. Alex Ramirez - hitting machine - what on earth will he do at age 20, I wonder. Of course, pitching at High A, AA, and AAA will become progressively more challenging for him.
2. Francisco Alvarez - tremendous potential, but currently hitting like spit. I am expecting more thunder as we get closer to thunderstorm season weather.
3. Brett Baty - he has been OK in the minors - but I have not yet seen anything that makes me go "Wow". How about AA player of the month in June?
4. Ronny Mauricio - he still seems like Amed Rosario (Ronny has a low 5% career walk rate) with more power to me. Frankly, Amed Rosario with more power ain't bad.
5. Wyatt Young - I have no clue how he has done what he has, nor if it will continue, but he hasn't missed a beat - how can I not just say "Wow"?
6. Mark Vientos - he probably should be above Young, but I am just disappointed in his lousy 2022 start, after hyping him all winter. He needs to hit 30 more HRs this year to make the boo-boo better.
7. Simon Juan - up this high solely based on the hype so far.
8. Nick Plummer - he is 25. He has improved a lot. But the last two seasons, even while improved? He's still had 147 Ks in 134 games. Lots of Ks in the minors, when major league pitching is so much better at inducing Ks.
9. Carlos Cortes - I would have him just outside of my top 30 right now. Just too quiet at bat, after a quiet second half of 2021 and a quiet Arizona Fall League. Count me puzzled.
10. Jaylen Palmer - I would have him out of my top 50. Fans at an extraordinary rate. 313 times in 212 games in his minors career in A ball and rookie ball. That is a non-starter.
Replacing the latter 2 somewhere in the Mets top 30 would be two St Lucie sluggers:
Carlos Dominguez and Sherveyn Newton.
Carlos D exhibits fine power, with 8 HRs (take that, Pete Alonso) and 21 ribeyes.
Sherveyn (.298/.375/.548, 13 XBHs, 16 RBIs) has made major strides, adding hits and exhibiting pop, while substantially cutting Ks.
Both (especially Dominguez) must focus on further cutting Ks to climb the ranks, but have trumped expectations and impressed bigly in 2022 so far.
How do you rank this re-ranking, dear reader?
Does it rankle you? Result in rancor? A bit rancid, maybe?
Am I ranting too much? Or are you raving?
Or just think I'm stark-raving mad?
Anyway, I refuse to engage in rank-baiting. Go rank yourself.
I think it ranks as one of my best articles.
And articles? I've had a few, no, too many to even mention.
I'll stop no, rankfully.
I will probably circle back and do a similar article on re-ranking Mets' prospect pitchers in a few weeks...if you pitch in yourself with some reader comments on this article, that is.
If I forget, remind me. Thanks.
11 comments:
I outrank you, so let me just say: "Outstanding article, Tom". "Well, thank you so much, Tom."
Where is our Moises Gomez? Dude has 14 HRs in 24 games in AA and is hitting .374.
The Brooklyn Cyclone team has 5 HRs in 26 games. And for them, it is not home park incoming wind - they have 1 HR in 14 road games.
Power arms, power bats - not putz bats, please.
Or Nolan Gorman (12) or Shea Langeliers (11)?
Mack, would you trade Alvarez and Baty for Langeliers? Would it be enough?
I would stay with our.prospects
This is a great illustration of how player development progresses. Batting studs out of HS or College face better and better pitchers as they ascend through the levels of minor league baseball. The best learn and adapt at every level, those less skilled end up stalling.
So we are seeing a big handful of prospects hitting that next level stuff and struggling. It will be interesting to see who makes it through and rises up Tom's next list. My money is on Alvarez - I have seen him hit and he has a compact swing that is quick to the ball. He will figure out how to read the breaking stuff and hunt the fastballs that he can drive.
Wyatt Young is an interesting case - very quick ascent and he is handling the pitching so far. The test will be when the inevitable slump occurs - can he mentally overcome it and continue to rise, or will he lose confidence and fall back?
Mack, gotcha.
Paul, I am hoping for a sea change in drafting hitters, while realizing we may emphasize pitching.
Brooklyn hitters have not just failed to hit long balls. They have fanned 268 times in 770 at bats and are hitting .205. I don't want to beat them when they're down. I just want better drafting and international signing.
Binghamton is .216, Syracuse is .219 (despite the miracle start of Wyatt Young).
Good golly. The three teams are barely above a combined .210!
St Lucie is the outlier at .261. Good for them.
Overall - a few good Mets minors hitters and a lot of guys that demonstrate that the Mets should have drafted/signed a whole lot better.
Interestingly, in AA, Alvarez has company - Volpe, Yankees' star prospect, is hitting .195 in AA. Of course, his team is 17-9, much better than Binghamton.
I wonder if the dead ball is hurting minor leaguers too.
Remember about drafting
Past round 5 all picked are to fill in holes in.the system.
Even one of those top 5 will be an under slotted probable college senior with no negotiation power
The Mets will quickly reduce their bonus pool with the two picks at 1.11 and 1.14.
Lastly,.3 good results a year make for a great draft
I think they use a different ball down there.
Not sure.
So our top 2 prospects are 19 year old Ramirez and out of no where Young so is that a good thing. You have to think the terrible weather in the north east is partly to blame but we'll find out soon enough. I really hope Mr. Superstar is not going to do this 2 hot weeks 4 cold for the next TEN YEARS UGH. Cleveland's Gimenez is 3-17-.351 in only 80 AB's so Francisco if you talk the talk you have to walk the walk.
Gary, the AL Central stunk when Lindor was in it, inflating his stats, and it still stinks, likely inflating Gimenez's stats.
Alvarez is on the clock. Time to hit, as weather improves.
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