SAVAGE
VIEWS – More Thoughts on 2023
November 1,
2022
I keep reading
about how the Mets should emulate the Dodgers and Astros organizations to build
for a better future. While I don’t
necessarily disagree with that thesis, I rather copy what the Braves are and
have been doing. The Braves field a
competitive team every year and continually draft hidden gems. Neither of the two top rookies, Harris and
Springer, were picked in the first round.
I don’t
claim to be smarter than any of the writers on this site, in fact, I’m impressed
with the guys who regularly contribute on a weekly basis. However, two years ago I recommend we trade
both Dom Smith and JD Davis when both had trade value. Nobody agreed with me.
I am
passionate about promoting our top prospects and making them regular
contributors in 2023. There are those
who suggest Alvarez, Baty and Vientos will benefit by spending some or most of
the year in AAA. My response is hogwash.
Take
Francisco Alvarez. He is still a work
in progress but to think a few months in the minors will improve his skills
behind the plate is short-sighted. His
power bat is far outweighs any alternatives.
Over time, his defense will improve.
As with most young players, there may be some growing pains – but worth enduring..
In the case
of Brett Baty, making him the regular third baseman means that either Edwardo
Escobar or Mark Canha would be superfluous.
I would rather keep Escobar and make him my regular left fielder. He offers much more flexibility than Canha
since he is also able to serve a back-up on the infield. Canha has trade value and should help us
secure either a nice prospect or a bull-pen arm.
Mark Vientos
has nothing left to prove in the minors.
He should be given the chance to be the full-time DH. He is another power bat that will enable the
lineup to really rock. Unfortunately,
retaining Vientos makes keeping Daniel Vogelbach unlikely. Unlike Vogelbach, Vientos can
play the field if necessary.
Luis
Guillorme has been a fan favorite over the past few seasons with his
exceptional defensive ability. However, the reconstruction of the Mets lineup
next year will limit his playing time.
He would then become an expensive back-up. There are cheaper options out there. I
recommend Wyatt Young be given a shot, but I would not be surprised if someone
else emerges.
I know some
of you are not on-board with my suggestions. My point is that unless we make multiple
changes and get younger, we will see a repeat of 2022 and fall short of expectations.
The idea of us
acquiring either an Aaron Judge or Trea Turner is a pre-adolescent fantasy. Simply
not going to happen. We have sufficient
internal talent to put together a formidable team.
As much as I
want the Mets to re-sign deGrom, if he does leave it will not be a catastrophe.
I’m pretty sure next year’s starting
rotation will be decent.
Ray
19 comments:
I truly am beginning to have doubts re: Vientos
Ray, lots of interesting points. My brother 100% agreed with your call on JDD and Dom Smith. I do not recall what mine was, but I thought Smith had moved into Adrian Gonzalez All Star territory with his .616 slug % in shortened 2020. But Pete had his position locked up - without a DH, he should have been traded. Smith is a true enigma. Enigmas belong on teams like Pittsburgh.
I agree with you on Alvarez and Vientos - hopefully, the surgery Alvarez had done will allow him to have normal pre-spring-training catching prep, as I would like to see him in the Big Show on day 1. People forget that he started out under intense pressure and went 1 for 18, with 8 Ks, but was 5 for 18 after that with just 4 Ks. He was adjusting. I see him hitting .220-.230 next season with a HR every 15 at bats. That works for me.
While I have touted Wyatt Young often in these columns, I have not seen him play. In his first full year, he got on base impressively in AA and AAA, exhibited a little more power than Luis, and made few errors at mostly 2B and also SS. He made good contact. So your argument is good on Wyatt, but I'd be shocked if Luis was not the fill-in guy for 2023. Hard to add too many non-established pieces in 2023. But in 2024, now I'd agree with you 100%. Luis' salary will be a lot higher than Wyatt's, and every dollar higher will have luxury tax added onto it. I could definitely see that switch in 2024.
Ray, your lineup allows the Mets to keep DeGrom and lose Nimmo. Cahna can stay in left with Marte playing right and Escobar 2B, putting McNeil in RF. This will buy time. I’m not saying that I agree with your thinking, I’m just following along. DeGrom is an ace, and while he had two consecutive years of injury, they aren’t chronic and he has perfect fundamentals thus staying good for several years. DeGrom offers more long term than either Nimmo or Diaz will, and your lineup helps the Mets keep him.
Ray,
Excellent points; all have merit. It is going to be an interesting off season.I , for one, want to see the Mets utilize our young players. The Braves have demonstrated the effectiveness of bringing up their minor league players and signing their best to long term contracts.Good model to follow,
Just saw Jon Heyman’s article in the NY Post this morning, and he lists JDG as the #2 most valuable free agent with an expert saying 3/$125. I would love to resign him and I agree on JDG’s value. You can’t let him go. They have Diaz at 5/$105! Wow! They have Nimmo at 7/$146. I think that’s reasonable, but when do you start getting younger when you are giving seven year deals to players that are very good, but not great?
In a no shift league I like a Lindor Guillorme middle off the infield. Defense is very underrated. Take a page from the Braves if Alvarez and Baty have good springs give them their shots. Let DeGrom walk,one 40 million a year injury prone starter is enough. Use the money on one of the FA shortstops and a second tier starter or two.
Great thoughts, Ray!
You were right about trading Smith and Davis when they had value. We got nothing for Davis and he got what he needed - a change of scenery that he has benefitted from immensely.
I don't agree with your Guillorme position, as he is likely going to cost $1.5M next year as an ARB2 player. That's not much for someone that can back up 2B, SS, 3B and actually play same or better defense there than the player he fills in for.
I also think that Canha is preferable to Escobar in LF. Escobar showed very limited range this year, registering negative DRS at third. He appears to be slowing down with age, so a move to the OF where you need range would not help. At the plate, Escobar is a strikeout risk even when he's hot, while Canha works the count and strikes out at a much lower rate. Canha has a better slash line .266/.367/.403 versus .240/.295/.430. You mentioned flexibility in the argument for Escobar but Canha can play all three OF positions as necessary plus be a backup for Alonso at 1B, which will be necessary when Smith and Ruf find other places to play.
Your arguments about the young guys Baty and Alvarez are spot on, and I also agree with you on Judge, Trea Turner, and all the other crazy social media speculation. I see people calling for Eppler to go get Justin Turner and Noah Syndergaard back. Why would you let go of players when they have youth and potential and then want them back after they are on the performance downslope?!
There is no guarantee that deGrom will stay healthy as he has not been able to do the past several years. His talent is unquestionable, even with the pitching slump at the end of 2022. However, $40+ million per year for perhaps 20 starts is WAY too much money to commit. It gets worse over multiple years. I'd sooner see them spend under $40 million and retain the services of Bassitt and Walker. Then throw in the final year of Carrasco plus Scherzer and all of the sudden the starting pitching doesn't look all that bad.
I am good for Jake at 3 years, $45 million if there is no viable alternative. But if you do, lose the division to have him fresh for the playoffs. If he is not ready to be JAKE and not jake when the playoffs arrive, it will be a waste of cash.
It is my birthday today. All I will admit to is I am not as old as Ray, Mack, or Joe the Big Guy Biden. I am a MAGA writer, BTW...I will write until the Mets Are Great Again.
Happy birthday, Tom. Looking for forward to this off-season . I'm not totally confident that our front office will make the right decisions
Ray, thanks. What,because they acquired Ruf, you have doubts? They got a whole years worth of STUPID out of the way with that one. We need them to win in 2023. No more “nice try” stuff.
Anyone see the 8th inning last night? I have not been watching but saw Phils got to 3-2, 1st and 3rd, one out. Guy should have been bunting in tying run, but swung over 3 low sliders. Shame. Old time baseball and maybe Phillies are up 3-2 instead of facing the abyss.
At least they didn’t choke,Tom.! Too much choking this playoff season,nice to see a team keep punching.
True.
Happy Birthday Tom and I agree bring back the bunt! I hope the death of the shift, which I hated, will bring back a little old time baseball. My money would be on Rodon and Anderson for what is beyond crazy $$$ for Jake who won 5 games yes FIVE games out of 101 we need to move on and play the kids and sign Diaz.
Gary, compelling logic on Jake. Also, that was really a do-or-die moment for the Phillies - tying run 90 feet away, one out, tough K pitcher on the mound - to me, and you know I like the long ball, that situatioN screamed for a bunt. Not bunting there may have cost the Phillies the World Series.
But how often do guys lay down a good bunt? More likely a popup or a foul ball.
If they practice bunting, they can bunt. Sure worked for Brett Butler.
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