THE PEN CAN BE MIGHTIER THAN THE SWORD!
Mets' Bullpen?
It seems very depleted.
But...is it, actually?
First and foremost, what have we already got?
What's on the clubhouse shelves right now?
Let's look at Fangraphs, who projects what 2023 could look like for guys on the roster.
A) IN-HOUSE:
Edwin Diaz - 64 IP, 38.9% K rate, 8.6% BB rate, 2.45 ERA.
Drew Smith - 63 IP, 25.1% K rate, 8.8% BB rate, 3.91 ERA.
Stephen Nogosek - 60 IP, 23.4% K rate, 8.6% BB rate, 4.12 ERA.
B) Rookies and Recent Adds:
Bryce Montes de Oca - Fangraphs appears to foresee big things from Bryce in 2023. As in 62 games, 62 innings, 28.4% K rate, 12.3% BB rate, and a 3.59 ERA. Listed as a 70 FB, 60 slider, and just 35 Command.
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| Eric Orze - MiLB.com |
Eric Orze: 36 IP, 23.9% K rate, 8.3% BB rate, 3.86 ERA. Rated at a max of 50 FB, 50 slider, a strong 60 splitter, 55 command. In the high minors in 2022, 4-3, 4.83 ERA, 69 Ks in 50 IP, including a bad April.
Stephen Ridings, picked up by the Mets? 46 IP, 27.3% K rate, 8.4% BB rate, 3.43 ERA. 70 FB, 55 slider, 45 command. Similar size and velocity to de Oca.
William Woods: Projection: 42 IP, 22.4% K rate, 9.7% BB rate, 4.18 ERA. Projected maxes: FB 60, slider 55, Change up 40, Command 40.
Denyi Reyes: Projection: 43 IP, 18.6% K rate, 5.8% BB rate, 4.43 ERA.
Projected Reyes maxes: FB 50, slider 50, Change up 50, Command 60, but measured currently as about 8 points on average below that, so Reyes seems to have room to improve.
Eliezer Hernandez: Projected 133 IP, 23.5% K rate, 6.9% BB rate, 4.39 ERA, 60 FB, 50 slider, 50 change up, 55 command max. Trevor Williams' replacement?
Jeff Brigham: Projected: 56 gms, 56 IP, 26.4% K, 9.4% BB, 4.00 ERA
If it played out like that for the 7 hurlers above, not so bad - but the last 7 new, unproven guys above, to me, equal too many unknowns for my comfort zone.
Interestingly, the forgotten man, Joey Lucchesi, in Fangraphs is projected at 103 innings, 6-6, 4.23 ERA split between spot starts and relief which, if he can do that much, wouldn't be bad.
Solution?
Bring back “Adam Ant” Ottavino and possibly add lefty Andrew Chafin, then go from there.
Do I hear an Amen, brother?
In fact, I asked my brother Steve - besides the above 10 listed pen arms, plus Joey, he wants FIVE more bullpen arms added, including Adam and Andrew. He's taking no chances.
He's seen, as I have, that too many Mets innings each year are pitched by low-talent bottom feeders, less so in 2022 than in recent years. And in many seasons, a crappy pen has been a playoff-preventing phenomenon.
101 wins was nice. Let's not regress. Killer pen, please. Not a crappy one.
The Wilpons used to cross their fingers - Steve Cohen needs to not go there. Buy a bushel of pens.
22 comments:
Got nothing to add here.
Your post says it all.
Chafin is a necessity and improvement over J-Rod. Ottavino would be a big help. With those two you could live with the rest of the bullpen unprovens plus Smith and Nogosek.
Mack, I was quite surprised, especially since Fangraphs tends to be conservative. But those were their projections.
I just think 3 guys (Diaz, Montes de Oca, and Ridings) that can hit 102 ought to be interesting.
Hey,there’s a lot of BP guys out there and you know Uncle Steve wants a winner.
Reese, I agree, except too many unproven parts, so I’d like a third veteran pen arm, hopefully more effective than Trevor May. I think their not retaining Givens and J Rod on the cheap is a good sign that they want better.
Let’s try to have 3 LHs in the BP.
Signing Ottavino and acquiring Chafin would be a great start. I still don't think we're good enough from there, as de Oca and Orze are not yet proven to consistently get MLB outs. The other pickups are pawns - fangraphs projections don't consider enough intangibles, so I don't give them much credibility. Let's not give up on Seth Lugo - he has been a great piece of the pen for years.
You didn't mention Megill or Peterson - are you expecting them to both be in the starting rotation?
Paul, as of now, Megill and Peterson in the rotation, until Billy & Co. push them out. End result? I think Peterson starts and Megill replaces Trevor May in pen. Or is 2023’s version of Trevor Williams.
Bullpen 2023
Maybe like this?
1. Long: Drew Smith, Joey Lucchesi (if healthy, have already forgotten what he looks like pitching)
2. Mid: Eric Orze, Andrew Chafin (can spot start as well when needed to)
3. Set-up Adam Ottavino, a new really good lefty set-up with a decent fastball
4. Close: Edwin Diaz
Just not totally sold on the rest of the possible in-house Mets possibilities yet. Will have to see more statistics first on each.
Getting This Next Wave Started
2B/LF - Mark Vientos / 24 HR, consistent MiLB BA wherever playing, .280 BA in 2022 Syracuse, plays multi-positions 3B, 1B, and Shortstop. Very smooth and very athletic.
DH - Ronny Mauricio / Check out today's mets.com 3 run homer Ronny video to see what I have been saying here with him. This guy has awesome strength and is I think a perfect DH for 2023. Plus, it gets him in the roster in case of an injury at third or SS.
3B Brett Baty. This guy projects out exceedingly well as another David Wright type player. 2022: 19 HR, 60 RBI, .315 BA.
All three are the next wave, plus possibly Francisco Alvarez if entirely ready. If not, then I would seriously consider Christian Vazquez here. Christian is much more than a decent catcher and batter, .261 career BA, 23 HR in 2019. He's a team leader type player.
The not so interested in at this point.
1. OF Mark Canha starting in Mets OF 2023. A mediocre power bat, .248 career BA. Mets can do better, if smarter. I like the club house leader stuff, but personally I'd rather compete for the WS rings.
2. Stephen Nogosek. Just not enough definite pitching stats to prove him yet. Getting up there a a bit too.
3. Justin Verlander. Just too soon to tell if he can hold up much longer. Too risky at that price. Ditto deGrom. Let the Yankees find out what this organization should already have learned with Jake's arm.
4. Jose Butto. Show me the statsheet Jose. Not there yet to be ccertain with him. May still be a smart ST invite though.
5. Elieser Hernandez. I shoot for second half of 2023 with him after MiLB time in.
6. Tyler Megill. Definitely has the stuff for here. Just a matter of consistency really. Ditto what I said with Elieser above.
7. William Woods. Needs more time in MiLB and the stats thing.
8. Khalil Lee. We've seen this before with MiLB players here. Needs a real life 2023 breakout year at Syracuse to become official. Can do.
9. Daniel Vogelbach. Head to head I take Ronny Mauricio over him at DH.
10. Darin Ruf. Not my favorite Eppler move for 2022.
One more not so interested in.
SP Chris Bassitt. Nice 2022 seasonal stats. But crashed and burned in last few weeks and it made me wonder what was sup with that. I'd let him walk.
Tom,
Before the Phillies traded for David Robertson, the Mets were supposed to have been interested. Is he still an option for the Mets pen?
Buddy.
Alzheimers: Stem cells, due to their capacity to differentiate into neuronal cells and through releasing neurotrophic factors, seem to be a valid strategy to use in the treatment of traumatic brain injury. It may not cure but it is said to significantly aid Alzheimer's patients. Best to Buddy, I wish him the very best always. Was a solid player and human being. Smooth and very quick on shortstop. No.3!
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D J, with so many pen openings, I would certainly think the Mets are considering David Robertson. Is he their first, second, or 3rd choice? Don't know. But...meetings start in 5 days - we will soon find out a lot.
Anything that can help Buddy, that would be great.
I wonder what Fangraphs' success rate is. I don't know how to do it, but it would be interesting to check their pre-season ratings from last year with the actual numbers.
Bill, a very good question. I will say this: the times I have looked at it for our current Mets position player hitters, I often thought it was too low/ conservative. But often, they were pretty accurate forecasters. If I get a chance down the road, I may try to look at that.
Parada vs. Alvarez
Two high ranking catchers. Both with a beautifully powerful homerun swing.
Historically the Mets would use one of these in a trade for another team's top prospect at another position. But honestly here, I wouldn't trade either one. The reason is an MLB team really needs (in today's game) two very good catchers on their roster. The worst case scenario here for this, is having one catch and the other be the DH sometime a bit down the road when both as totally ready. In this way, you could alternate them so that they are able to use the DH games to keep well their catcher bodies in best condition.
Kevin Parada is younger and newer to Mets MiLB. His catching abilities are quite pure and with a live arm. Knowing this, I might feature a catcher duo in 2023 with Tomas Nido and possibly Francsisco Alvarez if deemed ready. Then see how fast Parada can develop.
Since really Piazza, the Mets have struggled at the catcher position with no one catching Mets prospect really showing true star potential in sight at this position. Now, the Mets have two such possible prospect star catchers in the making. It is to me unbelievable. Don't just wand it away is my advice.
Talking SP
Sports website reporters are currently playing up the free agent signing of deGrom or Verlander, like one is a given here for 2023. To me, I want neither one. Both are great starters, but both may be entering in on the potential downslide ramp a bit too much.
I want a youth upgrade here for this team. I don't want to have to sit on pins and needles again hoping that the Mets 2023 starting rotation can stay well all season long and not get injured in a significant way. We have seen some of this, and it is simply not good.
So, my thought.
1. Max Scherzer (relatively very few arm injuries at all in his career)
2. LSP Carlos Rodon (amazing 2022 with Giants, 14-8, 2.88, 237 K's in just 178 innings, 1.02 WHIP. Some arm injury history, but not as bad as some starters we have seen here the past two seasons.)
3. Kodai Senga (gorgeous long pitching mechanics, not a rookie, all upside. Same age as above Rodon (29) and would make a much better 3-4 year contract than either Verlander or deGrom longevity and effectiveness wise.)
4. Carlos Carrasco (we know him and we like him a lot. Staying healthy and he is optimal again in 2023.)
5. LSP David Peterson (close to having a cigar here, just needs more games starting on a consistent basis in 2023, in my opinion. I like this young starter a lot.)
Depth: Tylor Megill, Drew Smith, and if humanly possible here for this organization LSP Josh Walker through ST development at starting. Something about this young lefty pitcher impresses me. Size and smoothness most likely. 92 mph fastball from someone as big as Josh is with such a long arm and leg delivery mechanics makes for a hard to hit pitch everytime.
Very good points.
Ottavino, Chafin, Diaz
Not totally certain on the often injured Joey Lucchesi. Could also bring Josh Walker in for a look at this role instead. Josh to me is all upside still. It's an interesting option for the Mets to have. Walker could conceivably be stretched out to become this decent lefty sub-starter to go along with righty Drew Smith as well. Would also here not rule Josh out at becoming a full time starter down the road either. Will up his fastball to 94 mph.
This would make five decent arms for the Mets 2023 pen. Would then just need two more. Preferably a lefty and a righty set-up man of worth and merit.
Fangraphs shows Josh Walker garnering 20 major league innings, and a 3.92 ERA. Maybe he will be a late blooming lefty reliever
Former White House press secretary and current Fox News ‘Outnumbered’ co-host Kayleigh McEnany and her husband, former Mets hurler Sean Gilmartin, announced the birth of their second child on Thursday, and social media users reacted with their congratulations.
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