The good and the bad of the Mets' hot start

The Mets have begun the season by winning 15 of 22 games and 5 of 6 series.  Their .682 winning percentage is third in the NL.  This is as good a start as could be expected for a team that has a talented roster but does not have a marquee pitching staff.  By the way, who needs a marquee staff when you can lead all of MLB in ERA with what you have (and with two starters on the IL since the season start)?

And so, as Mets fans revel in this good news and the recent sweep of the Cardinals, one might wonder what is in front of us?  To examine what the future could bring, let's talk about what we have seen so far in the first 13.5% of the baseball season.

The good: 

Let's start with the pitching.  No one would have predicted the kind of start that this staff has had - they have been in the number 1 or 2 position all year for staff ERA, and both the starters and relievers have contributed to that success.  An eye-popping seven pitchers on the Mets' staff have an ERA under 2.00 right now.  There are also seven with a WHIP under 1.00 which may be an even more impressive stat.  Can this continue?  I think it can.  Yes there are going to be bad days, and those ERAs will not likely stay under 2.00, but this team is also built to score, so an ERA under 3.00 should still lead to many victories.  Also, let's not forget that Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are still on the sidelines - they will certainly help when they come back.

Pete Alonso has been a hitter all season.  Not just a power hitter as he has in seasons past with his career .251 batting average and .519 slugging percentage.  The "new" Pete Alonso is hitting .346 with a .718 slug and 1.171 OPS.  His 24 RBI leads the NL.  I don't think it is reasonable to project this on his full season, but what I am really impressed with is how Pete takes his at-bats this year.  Gone are the swings at bad pitches and takes on fastballs down the middle that constantly put him in pitchers' counts all last year.  Now we are seeing him get ahead in counts and he is reaping the benefits of seeing pitches to barrel later in the count.  I am not sure who to credit with this transformation - is it and Eric Chavez tip, is it that Soto guy in front of him in the lineup, or is it just Pete figuring out a few things after watching film in the off-season?

The catching duo of Luis Torrens and Hayden Senger has been a very pleasant surprise.  Both have been superb defensively and they have also hit better than expected.  As you read in the earlier pieces from Reese, David Stearns faces some very difficult decisions when Francisco Alvarez comes back.  Not that you would struggle to decide to put Alvarez back on the roster, but who would want to tell Hayden that he has to go back down after such an admirable job?

The captain has once again begun to make his mark with clutch hits and outstanding fielding plays.  Francisco Lindor has matured into the kind of ballplayer that you build a team around.  He is as humble as he is great.  He sets an example for the entire clubhouse with his work ethic and his disposition.  Always ready to praise his teammates and never seen showboating on the field.  Most years he started slow and eventually picked it up.  This year his slow start lasted about a week to ten days.

The bad:

Nimmo's beard.  Enough said.

The New York sports media has once again shown their impatience and has directed it at Juan Soto.  Sal Licata's recent rant about Soto was just unprofessional headline-seeking nonsense.  Fortunately Soto has played in New York long enough to understand that this is part of the cost of performing in a large market and he will come through this without losing sleep.  At least Mets fans showed they were above it by giving him a huge ovation at Soto's first at-bat in the homestand to show that they still appreciate him.  Soto has begun to come around and I am confident that we can expect great things from him this year.

The start to the season from the bottom of the lineup was much worse than expected.  Brett Baty got off to a horrible start at a time when he could not afford it.  LuisAngel Acuna also got off to a rough start.  Siri was hitting like..., well..., Siri before he got hurt.  But the silver lining here is that Baty has started to come around with his bat, and once he returned to third base while Vientos was nursing a strained groin he actually flashed some leather.  Acuna has also turned it up, hitting better and also showing the speed that become another weapon for the team. Tyrone Taylor, who could always play the position in center field, is hitting .250 in the past week as he has admirably filled in for Siri.

The future: 

It is always dangerous to predict the future in baseball because there are so many variables in play.  But here is what I believe are some reasonable expectations.

The pitching will continue to deliver.  First of all, I don't think that the performances of Megill, Peterson, and Canning are a fluke.  I really believe that all three have benefitted from the pitching lab technology and Jeremy Hefner's astute ability to use that information to provide practical guidance that has transformed those three in to better versions of themselves.  Second, I don't think last year's Manaea was a fluke either.  He will return strong and immediately make an impact.  When Montas returns, we will see if he also becomes a better version of himself with Hefner's guidance.

The run scoring will improve.  As stated above, the bottom of the order started weak but is coming on.  Lindor has heated up and Soto will hit his stride.  Vientos had just started coming into his own before the injury, so his return should add some more pop to the lineup as well.  Jeff McNeil is ripping the cover off the ball in his rehab assignment.  As of yesterday the Mets were 19th in runs scored out of 30 MLB teams.  They should be in the top 10.  Expect them to get there soon.