ANGRY MIKE
2025 SEASON REVIEW:
Jonah Tong had a historic season, becoming the first ever pitcher in the M.I.L.B. modern era to lead all levels in both ERA and Strikeouts, which began in 1963.
Tong began the year at Double-A, as a 21-year old and absolutely dominated AA hitters at level rarely seen before, and continued his dominance even after his promotion to AAA.
Tong came within 1 out of pitching a perfect game, recording thirteen strikeouts against the Phillies Double-A affiliate, if it wasn’t for the fact he was at 99 pitches thrown he would have been able to finish that perfect game easily.
Across 3 levels, including AA to the majors, Tong recorded more than a strikeout per inning during an astounding 25 of 28 outings.
Tong recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 25 of his starts, and his 201 strikeouts for the season made him the first prospect since Noah Syndergaard to record over 200 K’s for the season.
Tong’s K-Rate for the season including his starts with the Mets was a remarkable 38%, 529 total batters faced, if you only count his starts in the minors, his K-Rate was a RIDICULOUS 41%, 442 batters faced! To put that in perspective, Mason Miller boasted an incredible 44% K-Rate, 234 batters faced.
Tong allowed 3 earned runs in each of his first 2 starts of the season, only to then deliver 20 consecutive outings across AA and AAA where he didnt give up more than 2 earned runs in an outing. In 10 of those outings Tong allowed zero earned runs, 8 outings only 1 earned allowed, and 2 outings where he allowed 2 earned runs.
Regardless of Tong’s mixed results during his major league stint, which some will argue should’ve never happened, Tong’s 2025 season was one for the ages. It was an incredible campaign that produced statistics that might not be bested for years to come. Anyone whose seen him pitch understands, Tong will learn from his successes and his rough patches from the 2025 season to further his development and secure his spot in the Mets rotation at some point during the 2026 season for the next 10-12 years.
SCOUTING REPORT:
An uptick in Tong’s velocity was first noticed during the Spring Breakout Showcase in March, Tong flashed impressive upper 90s velocity which had not been seen before. His AAA debut was the first time I really noticed how much harder Tong was throwing, and what was really impressive was the fact the last 5 fastballs he threw had the same average velocity as the first 5 fastballs he threw, 96 MPH. Combining mid-high 90s velocity on his fastball with the elite I.V.B. will undoubtedly transform his 4-seamer from a 70 grade pitch into an 80 grade pitch in a year or two. As he continues to improve the ability to locate his 4-seamer, we will begin to see Tong duplicate the same dominant numbers from his 2025 minor league campaign, but this time wearing a Mets uniform.
As impressive as Tong’s fastball was during his 2025 season, his Vulcan changeup is what has most Tong supporters and baseball analysts truly on the edge of their seat. Prospect analysts who were tracking Tong’s starts noted his new Vulcan changeup had devastating potential, eerily similar to Devin Williams’ “Air Bender”, another Vulcan grip Changeup. His changeup was exhibiting elite traits, sharp fading action, elite metrics, and he was able to land it for strikes or use it to induce chance. The velocity range was 83-87 MPH, and it is a potential 65-70 scouting grade offering.
When a pitch generates ugly swings from a professional hitter, who don’t know it’s coming, that means it’s a nasty and a pitch hitters began to watch tape and prepare for. When a certain pitch produces ugly swings from professional hitters even though they have a good idea it’s coming, that means it deserves a nickname…
Tong still flashed the same above average curveball he used to dominate hitters during his 2024 campaign, that registered above average spin rates and over 60 inches of vertical break. He simply didn’t use his curveball as much as I thought he would during the 2025 season, and raising the pitch’s velocity will make it considerably harder for hitters to track its spin at the MLB level.
What I’d really like to see is Tong scrap his traditional slider for a sweeper. I think adding a pitch that offers sharp, horizontal break that is slightly slower than his changeup, and that has its on unique pitch shape that is loopier could be a devastating addition to his arsenal. Everything Tong throws for the most part attacks hitters on north to south trajectories, getting hitters to start worrying about pitches breaking east to west will make harder for them to anticipate what to expect and easier for them to guess wrong more often.
FUTURE OUTLOOK:
Tong and Nolan McLean represent one of the most electric duos you’ll find in baseball and the Mets have the luxury of veterans capable of letting Tong to further his development in AAA to start the season. He’ll begin the 2026 season as a 22-yr old, meaning he’s still 2-3 years ahead of schedule compared to McLean and Brandon Sproat, giving him plenty of time to further perfect his command and his secondary offerings. The Mets have the best collection of starting pitching prospects in baseball and dismantling that group would be a categorical failure in management. If Steve Cohen and David Stearns are serious about building a sustainable winner, they need to commit to developing the elite players they already have in-house, and not use them as trade chips for veterans who may or may not move the needle.
7 comments:
Really good analysis. Thanks for posting Mike.
Ya gotta keep this guy and McLean around
They are the future of the rotation for the remainder of the decade
Thank you Mike. I’m not trading any of Sprout, McLean, Tong. Sign Skubal next year.
Mike, I especially liked your future outlook. I would love to see them develop the team this way.
Do you think the organization has the stomach to stay the course?
If we do it this way after the next year or 2 we will have going forward:
Pitchers:
McClean, Tong, your choice of Sproat and the 4 or 5 other prospects that always mentioned (too lazy to look them up to pronounce properly)
Hitters: other than Soto & Lindor.
Benge, Jett, Hopefully Ewing & Morobito. Nimmo, if not traded and Baty and Alverez, if they fully develop.
This way you can pick and choose from the FA market. You don't have to take someone out of desperation.
There are two dark horse Helium alert starters a year away
Jack Wenninger
Zach Thornton
JoeP, Mack knows MY preferred dark horse is left hander Jon Santucci. He was great from early May on.
Mike, I may be in the minority, but I think Tong’s adversities will have him ready for the Mets roster in April. Sweeper? I’d just be a little cautious of not messing with his arm health. If not an issue, sweep away!
His current delivery, which is the source of his success with the mix of his north/south pitches is not conducive to a sweeper that is largely an east west pitch. It is more conducive to a cutter. Also, it typically generates a 12/6 style curve ball that lacks a hard or late break. So at this moment, he gets most of the batters who fish, doing so on pitches that drop below the plane they swing on. A way to think about him is that at the moment he does not have in his arsenal a pitch that has been the nemesis of the following Mets hitters: Alvarez, Alonso and especially Vientos, namely a pitch that starts middle out in the zone then ends up out of the zone and more often than not below it as well. That is the rational of his working on developing a slider. A sweeper is not an alternative given his delivery mechanics. It would require a different delivery slot and easy therefore to detect. More bite on his curveball and location on his slider with more refinement of it, is the better mix for him -- especially given how important his current delivery mechanics are to the difficulty of making hard contact with his current array of pitches.
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