ANGRY MIKE
Does the franchise who rosters Skubal for the 2026 season:
-> IN THE DRIVER’S seat for locking in a Contract Extension?
-> Unknowingly LOST its bargaining position for an extension?
Boras’ tactical media leak: #Tigers & Skubal $250M apart on a potential contract extension has effectively set the rumor mill to “LUDICROUS SPEED” going forward, until he either:
A. SIGNS an extension with #Tigers
B. TRADED to a new Ballclub
The 2 questions about this situation that will undoubtedly have the widest range of opinions for potential outcomes:
A. What will the TOTAL VALUE of Skubal’s new contract be?
B. Will HAVING Skubal in 2026 = an advantage to signing him?
#Yankees’ never hesitated at the chance to acquire Juan Soto for the 2024 season because they were convinced having him the whole year, 100% provides a competitive advantage in regards to it came to signing an extension.
A. Chance to cultivate relationships within the clubhouse?
B. Allure of #Yankees storied franchise is a big selling point.
C. Passionate fanbase sells Soto on #Yankees for life dream.
“You always have to account for VARIABLE CHANGE…”
For Soto’s & Skubal’s case -> their Agent Scott Boras
Fact: Trading multiple prospects for a player in the last year of his contract, effectively makes them, the team with most to lose & has highest amount of pressure to extend its new star.
Primary Directive: Ascertain the MOST MONEY for Juan Soto:
How would I do it if I were Boras?
ATTACK highest vested team 1st -> sets the HIGHEST FLOOR.
Pressuring teams who didn’t trade multiple prospects for Soto or pay his $30M ‘24 salary might scare easy if pressed early.
#Yankees BREAKING POINT -> absolute maximum TOTAL VALUE of the contract before they walk away not caring they have nothing to show for loss of prospects and salary paid.
Once you establish the HIGHEST FLOOR -> remaining bidders now exhibit maximum motivation for chance to capitalize at the chance to sign Soto essentially for NOTHING…
At this point Boras is nothing more than an auctioneer, & all the pressure he was responsible for manufacturing in phase 1?
Transferred to the remaining bidders. Check and Mate…
If this truly is how it went down with Soto’s free agency, we can draw one INDISPUTABLE conclusion:
The FIRST loser of a potential bidding war, will always be the team who traded a huge prospect package for the pending FA, if 3 conditions are met:
A. One team trades a significant amount of prospect capital.
B. All bidders have comparable financial resources.
C. One team willing to pay whatever it takes.
Is this how Soto’s bidding war played out?
Is this the blueprint we can expect for Skubal’s bidding war?
Which teams are going to be involved?
Soto and Alvarez had developed a strong friendship in the years leading up to his pending free agency. He was introduced by their mutual agent Boras and had spent a couple off-seasons training together. Soto also indicated that he was offered more money from other teams and cited a couple reasons why he ultimately decided to sign with the Mets. Boras executed a masterclass in negotiation tactics by making sure regardless of which team he chose, Soto was guaranteed the highest possible offer from each respective team. Soto cited the personal touch Alex and Steve Cohen exhibited during negotiations, and said he simply enjoyed the family atmosphere of the Mets organization.
It will be interesting to see what will ultimately be the deciding factor that helps Skubal finalize his choice. The amenities each team offers, the personal connection Skubal develops with ownership might not seem important during the beginning of negotiations, but if it is anything like what happened with Soto, those factors will be critical in deciding where Skubal ultimately lands. The Mets need an anchor for their starting rotation, but more importantly they need someone who can mentor the “Velo Syndicate” (Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat). With all due respect to Manea, he might be a nice guy, but he lacks the killer instinct Skubal does.
Potential Bidders for Skubal:
Mets | Tigers | RedSox | Dodgers | Yankees
Astros | Rangers | Padres | Cubs | Braves
SKUBAL’S BIDDING WAR IS GOING TO BE EPIC…
5 comments:
It will be interesting. I am more averse to super-sized contracts for pitchers, due to that little UCL thingy. If the Mets get him, he better produce for a very long time at a very high level. Funny how elite pitcher contracts have gotten longer and exponentially more costly, at the same time they are lots more fragile as a species than their ancestors from the 1960s and 1970s.
I know his agent will be opposed to this, but any team looking to trade for Skubal has got to sign him to an extension or risk losing not only him in 2026, but also the prospects they traded to Detroit. Learn from the Yankees mistake.
The Mets now have the depth in the system to pull this off
You wondered whether it was an advantage to have a player for a year to "sell" him on staying there with an extension. I think that is a double-edged sword. If it is a positive experience and there is a sense that the club is heading in the right direction, of course that is a factor in deciding to return with a club. However, there are many little "warning signs" that a player may pick up that could deter a re-signing because of a perception that the team may not win with their current personnel/approach. If I were on the 2024 Mets, I would be excited to re-sign. The 2025 Mets? Get me outta here!
Show me the money… that’s the truth. Notice that Soto loved thw family atmosphere of the highest paying team…. Lets not kid ourselves.
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