The Great Mets Slugger Juan Soto
Barrel Rates, XSLUG, and Other Savvy Statistical Observations
Baseball Savant has excellent statistical data on the Mets and other teams.
Check the following page out:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/121?season=2025
You see some interesting stuff there. Take, for instance, the 43 HR superstar, Juan Soto, the guy that some picky folks like to nitpick about.
His XSLUG (the expected slugging % of Juan Soto, based on how he actually hit the ball in 2025) is calculated by BB Savant at .628.
For Pete Alonso, .592.
The duo actually ended up at .525 and .524, respectively, a remarkable gap (lower) from expected to actual.
That tells me three things:
1) They hit in really bad luck.
2) The opposing fielders were very well positioned.
3) Citi Field dimensions adversely impacted both to some degree.
Also, Soto’s expected batting average (XBA) was .300, a huge gap above his .262 season-ending average, and Pete’s XBA was .288, also above his final season average of .272. See points 1 thru 3 above.
Luis Torrens, who seemed to hit into hard outs every time I saw him, had an XBA of .285! As opposed to a season average of .226 for Mr. Torrens.
At home, in Citi, Torrens hit .188. That is not a typo. That is BAD LUCK!
And a park that confounded his bat.
What was I saying repeatedly about those to-me-too-spacious field dimensions? If you don’t know by now…
Anyway, when evaluating who should stay and who should go, don’t forget to look at stuff like Hard Hit Rates, Barrel Rates, XBA and XSLUG.
Because, based on what this tells me, if Juan Soto had average luck hitting, due in part to pitcher-favoring field dimensions, his season-ending numbers would have not just been very good, they would have been EYE POPPING.
His great #s would have been SUPERSTAR #s. MVP #s.
So, be thankful for what you’ve got in Soto and some of these other guys.
My advice? Don’t be an “XJERK.” Be XCITED instead.
STARS HIT MOST
Soto, Alonso, Lindor, and Nimmo hit 147 (66%) of the Mets’ 224 HRs. The Core Four did so in just 45% of the team’s at bats. So the non-core guys hit just 34% of the team’s HRs in 55% of the team’s at bats.
Wishful thinking does not boost non-core players’ HR totals. Talent does.
SOTO AND NAYLOR
Two guys not known for their blinding speed nor base stealing prowess. But there they are, stealing a combined 68 of 74 times (92%). Wow.
Speedy Willie Taveras stole 68 of 75 in 2008.
Soto and NAYLOR outdid him.
SOME ENCOURAGING 2025 STATS, LOOKING AHEAD TO 2026
Player #1: .291/.353/.477
Player #2: .246/.301/.476
Player #3: .213/.272/.320
Player #4: .262/.328/.344
Player #5: .276/.360/.561
Not bad at all, except for #3, Ronny Mauricio, and his stats were frankly inconclusive due to low levels of at bats.
The stats for these 5 above are post-All Star break.
The other players are Bret Baty (1), Mark Vientos (2), Tyrone Taylor (4), and Francisco Alvarez (5). All 4 had better post-All Star stats than pre-All Star stats.
Those stat levels, if replicated for all of 2026, would be an encouraging positive for 2026.
Excluding Mauricio, the other 4, post-All Star, are roughly .270/.340/.470.
I’ll take that slash line from them for all of 2026. How about you?
ARIZONA CRAZINESS
Maybe it’s something in the cactus juice. Our own Steve Sica is providing fine Mets players’ game updates, but I like to also look at non-Mets having crazy season starts.
A 21 year old OF named Esmerlyn Valdez has just 4 hits in 5 games - but all 4 are HRs, and he has walked 10 times. Crazy. His favorite movie is not Failure to Launch.
3B Max Anderson on Scottsdale (the team that Mets players are on) has 5 hits - and 5 walks - in 3 games. Over 162 games, he’d get on base 540 times at that rate.
And teammate Seaver King (best baseball name ever?) has 10 RBIs in the first 5 games.
Only 3 (non-Mets) players in the entire AFL have played in 6 games so far - why those 3 play in every game, I don’t know since they are only are a combined 14 for 61 (.229).
Our guys play only every other game - each Mets hitter has played only 3 of 6 - I wonder how those line up decisions get made. After all, we have the very best players around and our guys should be playing daily, right?
Scottsdale in 6 games is the best hitting team. They are .306/.437/.462, with 50 runs. I love runs. Wish I was there.
League-wide, 224 walks in 34 games. Almost 7 per game. What can one say? Pretty wild.
Meaningful October baseball.
THINGS I NO LONGER NOTICE
As a kid, I watched EVERY Jets and Giants NFL game.
This year? Not a single play.
Who are the QBs? I dunno.
So, it doesn’t bother me that, on my first standings check-in this season, that the Jets and Giants are a combined 2 wins in 12 games.
I’m busy on Sundays, anyway. I sing at the church that my brother Steve attends that starts at 8:30, and if you’re near Manorville in Suffolk County, stop down.
I then go with my wife to our own church later in the AM, then go to another congregation where friends go at 4 in the afternoon. I sing there at times, too.
I’m happier doing that than watching hometown guys with pigskins and shoulder pads going 2-10, trust me.
18 comments:
Thanks for the SSS (savant shit on soto)
Hopefully, MetsTwitter will move on to someone else to flame over
Core Players in the Apple
And my guess is you will have one less of these come spring
Mauricio
I'm sorry. I'm not sure he wouldn't be blocked if he hit #1 on thisn list
Seaver King
Top draft prospect
You gotta walk away thinking his parents were big Terific fans
Playing in the AFL
That's not how this "constructive" league is designed to work. Everyone sent here is assured they will play equal amounts so they can iron out past hiccups. What would be the purpsoe to go there and sit on the bench?
Tom Singing In Church
You gotta stop by and hear Tom belting out Slayer inside a chuch
Epic, dude
I don’t croon. I CRANK!
Pete…no Crow, no Alonso? Can we bring back Pete Falcone?
I quote these stats, assuming there is real validity to them. How they calculate them, I do not know. But we all saw with our own four eyes that Soto hit in bad luck. Maybe next year, he will hit in GREAT luck.
You can bring back Pete Reiser. This guy will never play in a Mets uniform again with his kind of demands
My Mauricio can’t miss advice was provided in late August:
I think very highly of Mauricio, too. He is (as I see it) just one silly (not so) little tweak away from becoming a bona fide MLB everyday hitter. He needs to stop hitting righty. Go 100% lefty swinging. At least that is what the numbers tell me:
Through Monday, his career MLB numbers against lefties were putrid:
11 for 81, 4 walks, 31 Ks, 1 HR.
MO: Against righties? .283/.344/.441 as a lefty MLB hitter in his career. Strong slash, huh?
MINORS? In 2022, in the minors, just .226 righty, but .267 lefty. In 2023, just .250 righty, but .297 lefty. And in those 2 years in minors as a righty, he walked just 9 times in roughly 260 plate appearances vs. lefties.
Awful, pretty much. And a lot less power. So why do it?
Time to dump the righty hitting?
BRENNAN’S NO-COST RECOMMENDATION: This off-season, drop the righty swinging, Mo. Go 100% lefty.
Imagine an ambidextrous pitcher who, as a righty, pitched like Nolan McLean, but lefty, pitched like Tom Szapucki. The decision would be obvious….just throw righty. Am I wrong?
The problem of PREDICTING stats is like predicting anything.The chances of you being right are around the same that predicted all those "worst to first" scenarios.
No
You are right here
(finally)
My parents lived in Manorville for a number of years. My brother and his son still live there.
It seems that with a spacious park, batting average would be higher because the fielders could cover less of it. So the Citi Field dimensions should help players' batting averages except for someone like Pete who relies on many to sail over the wall.
Think Coors Field. Known as a hitters' park, it is among the most spacious in MLB. The large dimensions don't rob HRs as much because of the less dense air at that altitude.
They can stop down if they’d like. Manorville Community Church, 8:30 - 9:30, short service. Just north of exit 70, LIE. Small services right now
I think that is more true in a park like Coors, where the extra amount of real estate will allow many more batted balls to fall in. I think if Citi moved fences in, a few hits would be lost due to smaller acreage, but homers would be perhaps another 20, and doubles would increase a bit. I think Soto and Lindor would love it, and so would Baty, Vientos, and Alvarez.
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