Paul Articulates - It is not that easy!!

Ever since the season wrap-up news conference with David Stearns, where he talked about defense and run prevention, there have been several articles pointing out flaws in the Mets’ defense and suggesting possible personnel moves that could eliminate them.  As with most of those authors, I had seen many of the defensive breakdowns during the season that led to losses or cost the team leads, so I also felt that Stearns’ emphasis was rightly placed.

However, after taking a long, hard look at it, I have come to the conclusion that this problem is not likely to be solved over the course of an off-season.  In fact, after looking at the data, I saw that short of a major overhaul, the Mets are going to have to live with a mediocre defense until a long-term evolution can be accomplished.  Why do I say this?  The Mets are not currently built with front-line starters that show defensive prowess statistically. They are not the worst, but just very far from the best, which makes an evolution to the best a very daunting task.

Here are the numbers behind my conclusion.  I looked at many metrics but finally decided that the “Fielding Run Value” metric published by baseballsavant.mlb.com was the most appropriate measure.  Here is their definition: 

“Fielding Run Value is Statcast’s metric for capturing a player’s measurable defensive performance by converting all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics from different scales onto the same run-based scale, which can then be read as a player being worth X runs above or Y runs below average. Currently, the conversions for those metrics are as follows. (Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are available since 2016.)

• Outs Above Average (range): 1 out = .9 run (OF) // 1 out = .75 run (IF)

• Fielder Throwing Runs: 1 run = 1 run

• Catcher Blocking: 1 block saved= .25 run (available 2018 – present).

• Catcher Framing: 1 strike saved = .125 run

• Catcher Throwing: 1 SB prevented = .65 run

• Double Plays: 1 DP added = .4 run”

The point of this metric is to evaluate a player’s ability to inhibit runs from scoring.  This fits perfectly with David Stearns’ run prevention objective.

The numbers do not flatter the Mets’ starters.  I looked at them against several rivals but felt that the best way to condense the analysis for this short post was to just compare the Mets’ performance to the rest of their NL East rivals.  To simplify, I just used the most active player at a position, since there are many lineups utilized throughout the season. Here is a table of the results:

As you can see from the data, the Mets were not only the fourth worst in their division for total Fielding Run Value, but they also had half of their position players rank below the average for the division.  So if you were to correct that problem with just personnel moves, half the starting team would be gone, including the “generational player” in right field.

This analysis gets worse when comparing the team to the playoff contenders for recent seasons, which eliminates many of the teams that have not had the means to bid on top players for every position.

Some of the answer to the Mets’ run prevention woes will certainly come from the pitching enhancements we all know must be made, including the maturing of the three young call-ups that showed their worth in September.  The rest of the answer is going to have to come from the players themselves with much help from the coaches and development staff.

One example is Juan Soto.  Soto has proven to be great at everything he puts his mind to – he has trained himself to have one of the best eyes in baseball, has refined a power stroke that results in one of the top average exit velocities in baseball (6th at 93.8mph), and this year decided to master stealing bases.  If he puts his mind to becoming a great defensive outfielder, I have no doubt he will succeed.  Forget about the loping stride – all he needs is a great jump and improved ball tracking to add to a reasonable arm (66th percentile).

Another example is Francisco Alvarez.  When he first came up, people were very impressed with his improvements in defense made during his first tour of the minors.  He showed a strong arm and good blocking ability.  All that somehow got lost with changes in his stance, his focus on framing balls, and sudden lapses in concentration.  Since he showed the physical and mental abilities to perform well before, he can do it again with the right coaching emphasis.  If not, Luis Torrens registered a fielding run value of +11, so Alvarez is going to hear footsteps.

Now there may also be some personnel moves in one or two positions.  We love Pete and hope he returns, but if he flies to a new home for a better offer, his replacement will certainly have some defensive skills as a top criteria.  I also think that the new focus on run prevention and the lesson learned with Cedric Mullins is going to keep Tyrone Taylor in center field until a Benge or Ewing arrives.

To summarize, the Mets have a systemic defensive problem, not a few individuals that need to be replaced.  The front office should focus on the pitching solution during the off-season and get the position players on the field early during spring training to coach them up.