Reese Kaplan -- Best of the Free Agent Starting Pitchers

Starting pitching became the ultimate black hole for David Stearns’ Mets in 2025.  Not only did a great many of them suffer injuries, but he also didn’t take any steps to bring in reinforcements until late August promotions from AAA which did not amount to much of anything other than Nolan McLean.  By then it was far too late and the competition for a playoff spot was pretty much in the tank.

Going into 2026 the Mets are starting off with three pretty questionable arms.  David Peterson was on the express train to Palookaville in the second half of the season.  Ditto Sean Manaea.  The most unusual of this trio was Kodai Senga who gave permission to be dropped to Syracuse as he had apparently lost his way completely. 

After them comes reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes whose initial foray into the every fifth day assignment toeing the hill for the club was mostly good until he hit what appeared to be an exhaustion wall toward the end of the year.  Still, a guy who hadn’t started after excelling as a reliever finishing the year with a winning record and a 3.53 ERA is not exactly chicken feed, though with the further uncertainty about the bullpen it could mean the club might want him to transition back to a closer’s role if Edwin Diaz plans to sell himself to the highest bidder elsewhere.

Then there’s the almost unbelievable start Nolan McLean had to his big league career.  As a minor leaguer McLean was good though sported a losing record to accompany his sparkling 3.10 ERA which included a high WHIP due more to walks than giving up hits.  Then came his ride to the majors and he was even better.  The strikeouts increased.  The walks stayed at an acceptable level and he finished the season with an eye popping 2.10 ERA which kept a godawful September from being even worse.  Going into the 2026 season McLean is the only starting pitcher anyone would write into the starting rotation with ink.

The last two late promotions each had flashes at times but overall proved they were not yet ready for prime time.  Ace minor leaguer Jonah Tong looked overmatched while the resurgent AAA work of Brandon Sproat demonstrated there was a big difference between the minors nad the majors.  It’s fair to assume both would be starting 2026 in the minors or packaged as parts of trades to improve other areas of need.

Now the free agent market is ripe with several notable prime-of-their-career options who can be obtained simply for spending money without sacrificing player resources in trades.  Assuming a cutoff of age 32 for starting pitchers you have quite a few options to consider who performed better than their pay rate in 2025:

At the top of the free agent pool you’ll find the on-again/off-again Dylan Cease who is available after pitching for the Padres.  For his career Cease is a middle to back of the rotation starter save for his stellar 2022 for the ChiSox.  With a career ERA of 3.88 you’re looking at the next Luis Severino, not the next Jacob deGrom. 

A bit higher up the scale in terms of his career performance is the Astros southpaw Framber Valdez.  Two years older than Cease, Valdez still has metrics to make whomever the new pitching coach is to smile.  A career winning record with a career 3.36 ERA suggests he is top of the rotation material, though perhaps not for more than 3 years given his age and girth.

The bargain of this group could be former Phillie Ranger Suárez.  At just 30 years old he has pitched to a winning record with a 3.38 ERA for his career.  He keeps the walks under control but is a bit more hittable than some of his contemporaries.  His issue is health as he has made at best 29 games started back in 2022.  How much you want to bank on someone for whom the IL is a familiar place is debatable. 

Zac Gallen is coming off a bad year but for four occasions posted an ERA under 3.00.  With the 4.83 mark in 2025, his career metric of 3.58 spells quality but not All Star level right now.  He earned $13.5 million from the Diamondbacks before hitting free agency and it is possible his new contract could be a lot higher for a short term deal with an opt out.

Then there is another list of possible starters who have either club or player options which might make them part of the bidding wars for free agency:

Jack Flaherty has frustrating stuff because at times he seems untouchable while other days he’s a batting practice pitcher.  His contract has a $15 million cut in salary for 2026 which can double from its $10 million rate if he makes 15 starts.  Coming off a 4.85 ERA in 2025 it’s possible he will opt out seeking to get back closer to the $25 million he last earned. 

Freddy Peralta is coming off a stellar 17-6 record with an ERA of just 2.70 for the Brewers.  They hold the 2026 option on him at a salary of just $8 million.  Don’t expect him to hit the open market. 

Unlike Peralta, the Padres’ Michael King has a mutual option for 2026.  His 2025 season was abbreviated due to injury with just 15 starts and a 3.44 ERA, but for his career he’s a 3.24 ERA pitcher.  His nerve issue in his pitching arm suggests that the Padres could opt out as his salary would jump from $4 million to $15 million and they could instead pay $3.75 million to cut ties with him.  He’s a big injury risk but a sensational pitcher if healthy.

Shota Imanaga has a club and player option for the 2026 season after getting off to a fine major league career in 2024 and 2025 combined.  His record of 24-11 with a 3.28 ERA for that period suggests that the Cubbies will swallow his $20 million new salary but stranger things have happened. 

Finally there’s the player Mack has long advocated acquiring in Lucas Giolito.  Coming off a 10-4 season with a very nice 3.41 ERA it’s entirely possible the Red Sox will pay him his $14 million salary that could swell to $19 million if he hurls 140 innings.  If not he’s on the open market but with a career ERA well over 4.00 I’d be inclined to pass.