This popped up overnight…
Tarik Skubal, the Detroit Tigers' ace pitcher, posted a stellar 2025 season with a
13-6 record, 2.21 ERA, and 241 strikeouts, guiding the team to the ALDS before
their exit. Reports from former MLB executive Jim Bowden reveal the Tigers plan to explore trading Skubal at the Winter Meetings
due to stalled contract talks, with the sides $250 million apart on an
extension. Potential trade partners include the Mets,
Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Giants, as Detroit considers acquiring assets in
lieu of retaining the homegrown star.
Hmm…
Now, you know me. I hate stories written about trade scenarios. I’ve
never read one that ever winded up hitting the nail on the head. That being said,
this looks like it is going to happen and I’m sure the Tigers will call the
Mets (or the other way around) and, at least, break bread in the Tigers suite
at the Winter Meetings.
So…
I’m going to play Mets GM this morning and try and put together an
approach here for one on baseball’s premier starters.
First, a short paragraph on Skubal…
Tarik Skubal is 28 (29 in December) year old LHSP who went
6.6-WAR, 13-6, 2.21 for the Tigers this season. He is signed through this past
season, at $10.15mil. Speculation is that he will repeat this season as the
American League Cy Young Award winner.
Now, let’s look at the existing contracts in place for the Tigers:
Contracts in place are:
RHSP Jack Flaherty $35mil (thru 2026)
RHSP Jackson Jobe $820K (thru 2026)
RHRP Paul Sewald $7mil (thru 2026) (opt out 2026)
2B Colt Keith $4.773mil (thru 2032)
SS Javier Baez $23.33mil (thru 2027)
The Tigers end of the year total salaries was $161,485,242, ranked as
the 16th highest team salaries for 2025.
Taril is an A3 ARB player with an estimated value after arbitration of $20.150mil
for the 2026 season. That simply ain’t gonna happen.
This team basically exists on team-controlled players, the likes of who
are thriving in Motown:
RHSP Casey Mise
ARB eligible 2026
RHSP Reese Olson
ARB eligible 2027
RHRP Dylan Smith ARB eligible 2028+
LHRP Baily Horn ARB eligible 2028
LHRP Brant Hurter ARB eligible 2028
LHRP Tyler Holton ARB
eligible 2026
RHRP Troy Melton ARB eligible 2028+
RHRP Brenan Hanifee ARB eligible 2028
RHRP Will Vest
ARB eligible 2026
C Dillon Dingler ARB eligible 2028
OF Riley Greene
ARB eligible 2026
OF/DH Kerry Carpenter ARB
eligible 2026
OF/DH Jamai Jones free agent 2030
Lastly, who are the top Tigers’ prospects that need to be taken into
consideration here. I mean, you are not going to trade for a new second baseman
if you have a projected great one bubbling in AA or AAA. They would be:
1B/C Thayron Liranzo ETA 2026
1B/C Josue Briceno ETA 2027
2B/3B Max Anderson ETA 2026
SS Kevin McGonigle
ETA 2026
OF Max Clark ETA 2027
So…
By my estimate, the Tigers would need in this trade:
LHSP - at least one existing major leaguer or major
league ready. I would offer either Sean Manaea or David Peterson with the Mets eating 75% of one of their
existing contracts
RHSP - my choice would be Brandon Sproat
OF - major league or minor league ready. I would
offer either Nick Morabito or A.J. Ewing. I’m sure they have a scout in Arizona right
now watching what Morabito is doing.
Low Level Prospect - I’d
hand them a napkin with some names on it and tell them to pick one. Guys like Joel Diaz, Brandon Girton, Irv Cota, Franklin Gomez, David
Hurtado, Daiverson Guiterrez, Julio Zayas, Marco Vargas, Boston Baro, and Eli
Serrano.
Then…
I’d sit back and ask for another cognac.
32 comments:
One could only hope that the Tigers accept your offer. The lefties both seem like damaged goods, so I am not sure they will give up Skubal for that. The Tigers will surely get some attractive offers.
Ironically, I was saying to myself yesterday that I hope Detroit can keep Skubal as it’s better for baseball and their franchise. But, trading him is the right move. Trading for him….. i don’t know… with Boras as his agent, it may be throwing away prospects.
I don’t want to trade Sproat
Mack, I would do that trade in a heartbeat. But I doubt the Tigers would take it.
Just read an article suggesting Tong, Sproat and Williams.
You can't give up any top prospects for a 1 year rental.
Everyone has to remember his agent is BORASS. He wants 10/400m and he will pitch as a 30 year old in 2027.
Frankly, the prospects that I never would trade are McLean, Tong, Benge, and Elian
They simply are too far apart. He’s been paid peanuts. And now tension has set in between his peeps and Greenberg. Not happening.
Understand but you have to give to get
Steve and Scott now have a decent and working relationship
Remember..
This is my first offer on a napkin
I still have the parchment in my 💼
Mack, you keep mentioning that BORASS and Cohen have a good working relationship. To me that doesn't mean shite. He still is going to hold out for the most money and years.
You only have a good relationship when you kiss his fat arse.
P.S. he schooled Cohen on the ridiculous Soto signing. Played him against the Yanks.
They will want ALOT more and get it but not from us. Why give up anything when he's a FA next year and then is he worth 400 million?. The guy I want is 26 year old Hunter Greene now I have no idea what they want but it's worth exploring.
I’d wait for him to be a free agent, unless the other teams smarten up too. Boras is a genius at extracting money. Skubal will wait unless someone makes a Vlad Guerrero offer. I wouldn’t want the Mets to do that.
Wow I would do that trade so fast it would hurt my neck….
I thought about it cause it is Skubal
I though maybe straight up for McLean but after seeing your trade we don’t even have to give that much
Sometime while the team has the great player they have no leverage
Hopefully if McLean proves to be excellent we can sign him early and not walk this same path
We did well with Degrom we had all his best seasons
Here is the most important part that was ignored. The Tigers and the Skubal camp were 250M apart on a possible extension.
Now, with that knowledge, why would the Mets think that BoarAss would not take them to the cleaners like he did with Soto on a contract knowing the Mets have to justify the trade by extending Skubal?.
I still say get a couple of proven arms for the BP and sign a #3 starter. Maybe is me but I think that Sproat is a lot closer to making an impact on the rotation than Tong. I wouldn't trade either one.
Like I said before, for 2026 I would just do what I mentioned on top and go with that minus Alonso. No way should the Mets consider anything over 3 years on Alonso. 1B will end up being Soto's position in a couple of years.
He makes his money from his clients
What more do you want out of him?
What if he was your lawyer and you were needing someone to negotiate the terms of a World tour
Wouldn't you want him to get you the best deal?
Great idea
The fact that Skubal is only a one year rental is why my napkin is light
That's a year for SIX top Mets pitching prospects to mature
May not need anyone in 2027
It's for a one year rental
They should be grateful I don't use invisible ink on my napkins
I’d love to see the Mets let Pete go, and stand pat for a year. It might be nasty, but wouldn’t it be a delight to watch kids excel - or struggle? I don’t want aging guys. Too many age badly. And it is so hard to figure which is which.
That said, figure out a 1 year, acceptable price for Skubal, whose arm could fall off next year, like so many others do. Trade for him for a year, if anything. Do not exceed a reasonable price. Your proposed trade sounds pretty reasonable. If they don’t want it, don’t do it.
Again
This was a "Splenda " offer for a one year rental
That's what I did, trying to form fit an offer that fills their needs
Tom, I don’t want to see Pete go. I want to see him becoming a DH and getting a three year deal. I want to give it one more year with this group of Baby Mets before the next group graduates.
My problem is: in July, Mauricio was very good. Then Stearns brain farts into trading for Mullins and the lineup doesn’t allow for Mauricio or Acuna to be heard from again. Does he suck, or was there another issue? Is Mendoza in over his head?
Yesterday I looked at FanGraphs and saw that the Mets had three too 15 MLB offensive players. How do they miss the playoffs.
How is this for a trade idea knowing the Tigers want to compete but the Mets aren’t going to just give up the farm: Acuna, Vientos and either Peterson or McNeil.
😀😀😀
I like the sound of that! I put a trade for you down below.
Keep our prospects and get Famber and/ or Cease.
Nowhere near as good as Skubal for the money…
Exactly, you sign a Framber type pitcher, a couple of proven BP arms and play Baty, Mauricio and Vientos everyday. That's the only way the Mets will find out what they have. But if Mauricio has 4 hits in one game and then sits for the 3, what is he building on?. I do agree someone should tell him to bat LH all the time.
At the end of 2026 you have a great idea of what you have internally and what you need to sign as a FA or trade for.
Skubal would only cost a draft pick and a ton of money but the Mets rotation could potentially already have Holmes, McLean, Framber. Those are 3 great starters and if the Mets then add Skubal.....well, that would be an elite rotation with either Sproat or Tong eventually completing the starting 5.
On the Mauricio thing if we have such a great hitting lab how in the world could they continue to let him hit righthanded?
Mack why are you accepting Bowden's report on face value? There's no evidence active negotiations are ongoing yet, and the only report of a $250 million dollar gap is based on one story from the NY Post that sites an offer from over a year, no actual substance? You talk about them being too far apart... they haven't even begun negotiations yet this off season. And as far as being paid peanuts, he accepted the team offer in 2024 and didn't take them to arbitration, no? Skubal accepted that salary without any pushback.
I would agree with Mack. Perhaps one of the second tier pitching prospects could be subbed for in place of Manaea or Peterson. I would hate to give up Ewing
Im with Mack but id slim my cant trades down to Benge, mclean and Tong. I like Sproat but he’s the guy I’d be willing to part with of the 3 top starters transitioning to the majors.
Would also consider sending Senga there way of it makes the deal work, eating salary too if it lowers the prospect capital.
After trading i would offer a clear record setting deal for both length and AAV to extend skubal. I know it’s boras but with the 2027 potential lockdown coming as ling as it’s a record deal i think they take it.
Skubal, mclean, Tong, scott will be the core of the rotation for the next 5+ years.
Bring back Pete and Diaz fill out the penn and you’re in a good spot.
Id try and sign Okamato as well. Have him play in whatever corner spot we need. If Jeff Mcneil os traded away. Start Baty at 2nd and play okamato at 3rd. Every day. Late innings, pete comes out and Okamato to 1st, Acuna to 2nd baty to 3rd for defense
Real chance there won't be a 2027 season if the Dodgers go out and sign one of the Japanese players, Diaz and Tucker . With their Guggenheim money, they have limitless money to spend. It would amuse me if Skubal also ends in LA
This seems like a reasonable trade. Ewing looks exciting so would be sad to lose him. I definitely don't want to overpay for a rental. I dont care how good he is. The Yankees barely gave up anything for their big rental Soto...
I was doing a little research on Grok and giving up multiple 100 prospects for a 1 year rental is extremely rare. Its only happened 7 times in the last 20 years.
Tim Hudson (2005), #30 & #92
Javier Vasquex (2005), #45 & #82
Chris Carpener (2006) #33 & #95
John Lackey (2008) #24 & #90
Zack Greinke (2010) #12 & #96
Gio Gonzalez (2011) #57 & #72
Corbin Burnes (2024) #63 & #98
Youll notice thats just one guy in the last 15 or so years...its almost as if teams realize that giving up multiple top 100 guys for a rental isnt a great idea. Yes Skubal is better than Burnes but the Brewers got a guy on the fringe top 100 and a 63...you see people throw out multiple top 50 guys for the Mets to get Skubal....that would be an unprecedented haul. In the last 35 years its never happened for a full season rental.
The wild part is...there is actually 5 cases of teams giving up multiple top 50 guys at the trade deadline for a mere 2-3 months of control over the last 35 years. It was 80% win for sellers (they netted massive value) and 60% win for buyers (they advanced in playoffs far)
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