6/13/20

Reese Kaplan -- So How Did The Mets With Their #1?


The June draft has come and gone with the Mets having chosen someone that most people are excited to have as a part of the future team.  Pete Crow-Armstrong is a graduate  of the same high school that produced recent major leaguers Max Fried of the Braves, Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.  Although he was ranked anywhere from 15 to 22 on the draft lists published worldwide, it seemed that many were surprised that he was still available when slot 19 for the Mets rolled around.  


The standard positive analysis of his game has to do with his capabilities of playing centerfield.  Many have said he is superior in that regard to converted infielder Juan Lagares (which is pretty high praise considering Lagares earned a Gold Glove out there). 


Between his defensive acumen and his baserunning speed many feel he is ready to star in the majors when he is ready.  In fact, folks think he is so advanced in his development that 2022 might be when he makes his debut (at 20 years of age).  Click here to see video of Pete Crow-Armstrong at the plate.


Crow-Armstrong has shown a great ability to make contact but it’s mostly been for singles and doubles, not the long ball.  Many people develop power as they mature like Jeff McNeil did, but more do not.  If he’s going to make it in today’s major leagues he’d better be stealing 50+ bases annually to sniff a regular playing role.  If he can add some double digit power to his game, then the stolen base becomes a valuable accessory but not the prime reason he’s in the majors.




For a comparison, the name I saw used more than once was Dexter Fowler who has split his pro career between the Colorado Rockies, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals.  The long and lean Fowler has shown good baserunning speed, averaging about 20 bases per season, but also has the home run tool, having his 17, 18 and 19 per season in recent years.  That combination along with defense has led him to five year $82.5 million contract ($16.5 million per season) as he closes out his career.  Right now he’s 34 and he will be paid something for this year as well as 2021.  In 2022 he may try again as a free agent, but the salary level is likely to reduce.  For a player providing about 2.0 WAR per season, he’s making the grade in earning his place.  


The choice of Crow-Armstrong was a little surprising to some Mets fans who felt burned by recent unusual top picks like Gavin Cecchini, Reese Havens, Lastings Milledge, Jason Tyner, Robert Stratton and Ryan Jaroncyk.  Sometimes you are forgiving if a guy playing an offensively challenged position like shortstop doesn’t wow you with the bat, but when you draft outfielders number one and they fall off the face of the earth you leave fans scratching their heads about the selection process.




Don’t get me wrong.  Many people were apoplectic when Sandy Alderson used his number one draft pick on a scrap heap outfielder from a disorganized program in Brandon Nimmo.  That he has grown into an on-base machine with 20 HR power and decent (if not acceptable) defense has been a most pleasant surprise to many of us.  On the flip side, you had a guy like Jeff McNeil sink to the 12th round of the 2013 draft.  No one expected stardom but it just demonstrates that draft science isn’t what it could be.  After all, Hall of Famer Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round ahead of only 5 other players in all of baseball.  


Most folks were rooting for the Mets to go pitching-first as they have done in many other high levels of the draft.  Taking an outfielder who does not have Pete Alonso power was a bit of a surprise but the consensus among scouts, writers and fans has been uniformly positive.  Let’s hope that faith is well earned.  

10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I sure hope we can get 60 XBHs a year out of him in his prime.

Mack Ade said...

Reese

Regarding going pitchrr first, I had hoped that one of the top names would still e there at 19. Particularly Crochet.

I am very happy with our choice but I still feel the Mets would have gone pitcher first if guys like those two were still on the board.

bill metsiac said...

"Ready to star when he's ready". Sounds like my mother's comment about dinner. 😄

CF to me has always been a position where D comes first, though of course it must come with sufficient offense.

When you compare a kid like Nimmo, who offers "decent if not adequate" D, but is an "on-base machine, with a GG-er who offers" decent if not adequate" offense, who gets the nod?

Time will tell.

Mack Ade said...

Bill -

Pete gets the nod here.

John From Albany said...

I agree with Mack - PCA over Nimmo. I saw Nimmo play for Brooklyn soon after he was drafted. He miss judged a fly ball into a hit. Video highlights of PCA in the outfield are very impressive. Will he hit? Only time will tell. His build reminded me of MdD...Matt den Decker. Hopefully he is better than the good field no hit lefty. I'd take a Dexter Fowler clone.

bill metsiac said...

I agree also. If he can field as well as or better than Lagares, I will welcome him with open arms.

There is a question of what constitutes "decent if not adequate" offense. Lag is a career .254 hitter, but with only a.297 OBP, and he has been derided as "no bat". He hasn't stolen as many bases as we'd expect, given his speed, but he's still an excellent baserunner who uses that speed well going fron 1st to 3rd.

If "Pete 2" gives that BA, with a better OBP, will he be derided as well?

As I said, time will tell. Let's just hope his fate is better than what Desmond Lindsay has experienced so far in his early years.

Reese Kaplan said...

Name centerfielders who live on their defense alone with practically no offense? The Mets have one now in Jake Marisnick. He's not a starter.

John From Albany said...

Braxton Lee in AAA is another. Wish Mets had gone with him and Lagares over trading for Marisnick.

Reese Kaplan said...

Last year Juan Lagares earned $9 million from the Mets. This year Marisnick earns just over $3 million. Lagares signed with the Padres for $100K. That's about what he's worth. He earned -1.7 WAR. Marisnick earned +1.4 WAR. To get him they gave up Blake Taylor and Kenedy Corona. Neither factor into their top prospect lists.

I think they made the right move.

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