We have all sorts of stats floating around in baseball. All sorts of analytics. Plenty of "algebra." I know a lot about algebra.
And I love analytics - to a degree. So does my analyst.
At some point, as a fan though, I do not want to immerse myself into all the analytics out there. I actually choose not to, despite what you see in some of my articles.
Because, at the end of the day, I am a baseball fan, not an analyst. I could be an analyst. Probably a good one. I'm good at math and statistics.
It may sometimes seem otherwise, but I really want to just enjoy the Mets' players, rather than look at every obscure stat, and if the team I like (in this case the Mets) happens to stink, I'd simply find other things to do more with my free time. As I have in the past. Simply, here's the bottom-line math for me:
Better product = watch more.
Poorer product = watch less.
And when fans can actually attend games, the formulae for them are:
Better product = attend more.
Poorer product = attend less.
That being said, you've probably seen the sort of posts like ones on Mets' "fan" sites on Facebook, where some "Debbie Downer" individual expresses negativity and displeasure, saying things like "c'mon, man, we've got a first baseman playing left field, a center fielder playing right field, a DH playing 1B and playing 3B" etc.
To that critique, I offer a simple overall algebraic formula I whipped up for fans like that to consider - it does not involve the use of calculus, derivatives, or advanced statistical theory.
It is this:
Team offense + team defense = team's position player success level.
So, if the overall defense surrenders 30 runs more than the average team, but the offense produces 180 runs more than the average team, that net result is a +150.
I, as a fan, am happy with a +150 from my offensive players.
It sure beats a team that is +30 on defense and -180 on offense. Why? Simple. That adds up to a -150. Why?
I like +150. I dislike -150.
I'd prefer my checking account to be +$150, not -$150.
And the pitchers' formula?
If the starting pitchers allow 50 runs fewer than the average squad, and the pen's holds and saves are at league average, that adds up to a +50 for the pitching staff. Last year, the pitching was a clear minus, as Stroman and Thor missed out, and Matz, Wacha and Porcello went a staggering, 1962-like, where-is-my-barf-bag 2-16. A combined 14 games below .500 in a SIXTY GAME SEASON!
Which also makes me happy.
I think, barring a rash of injuries, the above is about where this team stands, as I see it, for 2021:
+150 for offensive players, and + 50 for pitchers, which equals +200.
I'd be thrilled with +200. Warts and all.
Getting an "I am Curious George Springer" would have boosted those net offensive numbers somewhat in 2021, but at the cost of the team adding another one of those very long term contracts to an aging dude that might be half very good, and half very bad. So we missed him, and his defense, and we adjusted. We got Almora and Pillar, and had money for Taj Walker. Under the cap, and we'll extend some players and get someone else greater than George of the Jungle next off-season.
Getting a Twittering Trevor Bauer would most likely have busted the cap, and I would have been happy had Mets' management been able (and not just willing) to do that, since his contract is not that lengthy and it is not my cap to worry about.
But they did make other Bauer-to-LAD adjustments noted above that improved the Mets' team and also retained cap flexibility. It remains to be seen how missing out on Bauer (who wanted Los Angeles, not NY) will affect the Mets overall.
Maybe not much.
I look at the simple math above, think +200 for the Mets is possible, and I am happy about that. Even if the defense is lumpy and in many cases not elite. Even if the out-of-our-division Dodgers go +300.
A +200 team to me is elite.
Especially after 2020's stinker.
This team if it stays healthy could be ++.
As in a plus for each +100.
And...how are young ex-Mets doing this spring?
Pretty darned good.
Here they are:
SEATTLE:
Jared Kelenic - got into his contract extension tiff, and hasn't played much: 2 for 8, .250, HR, 2 RBI
Sam Haggerty - 7 for 26 (.269), double, 2 triples, 3 Steals
Justin Dunn - 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
TORONTO:
STEVE MATZ - 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
S.W. RICHARDSON - 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
ANTHONY KAY - 7 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 2-0
INDIANS:
A. GIMENEZ - 9-24, .375, 2 T, 2 HR, 7 RBI
A. ROSARIO - 7-18, 1 BB
I. GREENE - DNP
(I sure hope we extend Lindor, considering how the traded players are doing.)
ASTROS:
SCOTT MANEA - 0-4, 2 BB
BLAKE TAYLOR - 2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K
So there you have it. Seems ALL are doing well. Go figure.
Lastly, how are NL East teams doing?
PITCHING:
METS - 7-5 IN 13 G: 3.52 ERA
MARLINS - 7-2 IN 14 G. 3.21 ERA (lowest of any team in the majors)
PHILS - 7-8 in 16 G, 4.61
NATS - 5-6 in 14 G. 4.05
BRAVES - 8-7 in 16 G, 5.08 (problems in Georgia for the Div. Champs?)
HITTING (OPS):
METS - .732
MARLINS - .669
PHILS - .694
NATS - .712
BRAVES - .751
Based on the first half of spring training, a notoriously poor sign of what will translate over into the season, due to the many kids playing in games, etc., the Mets are looking real good, the Braves' pitching may be a hindrance, the Marlins seemingly have very impressive pitching, and the Phils and Nats are not impressing so far, stat-wise at least.
11 comments:
I don't obsess about ex-players.
I do obsess about poor defense.
We imporved this year behind the plate, on the mound, on short, and late inning outfield relieft but this will still be a defensively challenged team.
Hopefully, an increase of runs scored will help here.
Mack, I hear you, although it is amazing that ALL of the ex-Mets are off to good starts. I did hear, though, that Rosario has made 3 CF errors in 6 games. Why am I not surprised?
I think the Mets' defense will be improved for the reasons you cite, and defensive later inning replacements ought to limit bad defense damage. Nimmo playing deeper will help, but they have to catch balls like the one that fell between him and McNeil yesterday. Dominic Smith not snatching the HR Jake gave up (very catchable) was also a sign that defense, especially in LF, may leave something to be desired.
Luis Guillorme has that strength and it will get him a decent amount of play time.
I do think the Mets will be, at worst, a top 5 MLB offense if they stay healthy. A chance to be the best.
Kelenic also got hurt. That is why he has not played much this Spring.
I read yesterday that Rosario's 3 CF Errors all came in one game. He's still learning the position, so I wouldn't read too much into it.
Good follow up on the young ex-Mets. I wonder how the older ones (Frazier, Cabrera, Harvey, Wilson, et al) are doing.
Tom, your math equations are good when you are using it for a cheap team. For the amount of money the Mets are putting out, this should be a much better team.
As the reader you mentioned said, the Mets have a DH at 1B and 3B if Davis is playing there. One can argue that the Mets are better of with Smith at 1B even if he only hits 20/30 hrs vs Alonso with 40 hrs. Yes, I know he hit 53 but that's not a yearly thing. I'm thinking about now and in the future as well. Who fits better?
Putting a team together requires time and lots of planning which is why I said that trading Gimenez was a huge mistake by the Mets. Think of the defense and speed with Gimenez at short and Guillorme at 2B.
But by far, the biggest problem with the Mets is that they always seem to hire the wrong GM for the most part. The Agent from Hell trades Kelenic who should been an untouchable / future CF and now The Genius in his own mind trades Gimenez who should have been the future shortstop for a lot of years.
Now step back for a minute and just look at all the holes this team still has vs the money that has been spend. Then come to the realization that keeping Lindor can mean that either Conforto or Syndergaard could be gone.
Those two trades, if the Mets sign Lindor to an extension, can cost the Mets almost 70M between in-house chemist Cano and an overpriced Lindor. Not that Lindor is not a great player but for the money I rather have Syndergaard and Conforto than just Lindor.
If the Mets are smart, which is to say a lot, they should wait until the end of the season to try to extend Lindor. If he has his typical year, he will cost the Mets 300+M but if he doesn't, his price is going to drop a lot. I think that is a chance worth taking when you consider there are not a lot of teams that can afford him. The fact that there will be a lot of high end shortstops available as free agents will also bring down his asking price.
Defense vs offense? for the money spend, we should have both.
Viper, lots of good points. If they don’t in my view Hal down Lindor, that trade was a mistake. I thought extending him was a foregone conclusion. Cohen needs to go big, even if lux cap is busted next off season.
Luis G and Gimenez would have given the Mets clearly better D but less offense.
I think 2022 will have Smith and Pete at 1B and DH. Pete will be unhappy if a lot of his games are DH. That duo will crush pitchers.
Bill, my feeling on Rosario is that all along, odds were he’d be in CF. If he were a true pro, he’d be ready to play out there already.
Too early to judge. In normal times, he'd have played Winter Ball in CF, but it is what it is.
Look the Dodgers who seem to be the team everyone wants to copy has a payroll thats what 50 million higher than ours so if we want to keep up we now have the owner who has the money and the willingness to play this game. We will see shortly how this plays out but unlike the last regime Steve Cohen, we all believe, is in it to win it.
Gary, yes indeed. Cohen needs to pay up.
On the flip side...Flexen, Sewald, and Montearo have surrendered 20 runs in a combined 15 innings. Ouch!
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