Jeremy Mand - A Remarkable Interview Part III: Nelson Figueroa on the 2021 New York Mets

As retold by Jeremy Mand

On Friday, March 19^th, Nelson Figueroa, the former long-time Major League Pitcher and SNY studio analyst, agreed to do second interview with me about his thoughts on the 2021 New York Mets.

Please see his thoughts below:

1. What do you see as the teams’ strengths, weaknesses?

The biggest strength is definitely the lineup. The depth that they have in that lineup. You have some former all-stars coming off the bench. A little secret that some may not know is [the 2020 Mets] led MLB in hitting last year. 

If their starting pitching wasn’t so poor, behind Jacob deGrom, the Mets could have not only gotten into the playoffs, but could have done something really special. So, I think the depth is really the most impressive thing. Obviously, you get a star like Lindor, which brightens everything up. 

A Carrasco thrown in the deal is amazing itself. He’s a guy who’s been a top-15 pitcher in the American League for the last 5-6 years. Even though he had that bought with Leukemia, I still think he has that sort of ability left. 

The Mets have depth. They made trades, made signings [in the off-season]. They have 7 viable guys who can start at the MLB level. So come May, when they get back Carrasco, and June when they get back Syndergaard, that changes the equation. 

If the Mets are still in the hunt coming June, which I’m sure they will be, and you get two starters of that caliber, plus Seth Lugo, that would be an incredible trade to have before the deadline, so I think the team is going to do fine without them, but there is no doubt how much better they will be with them. 

The focus then becomes getting close to that [trading] deadline and finding out which pieces that need. They now have an owner in Steve Cohen who is willing to go for it, and I don’t see them sitting pat around the trade deadline if they need reinforcements.

2. Which player do you think has the most to prove?

To me, it’s J.D. Davis. Davis is going to have an opportunity at 3rd Base. They didn’t trade for Bryant, they didn’t jump into the Arenado sweepstakes -- and I was surprised that he was even available. So they’ve placed a lot of faith in J.D. Davis’ ability. So I think he has the most to prove. But he’s also going to be really under the radar in the lineup. 

They have Dom Smith who is coming off a career year, you Pete Alonso who in a bad year hit 16 HRs in only 60 games, Jeff McNeil who’s going to be at 2nd base and is hopefully more comfortable there than the outfield and jumping around everywhere else. Nimmo, who is continuing to grow into his own; Conforto who is a superstar. 

You get those 6 guys alone, and you have McCann who probably has that much to prove too, but he has a contract to fall back on, when JD Davis is still looking to solidify himself and get on track to get this long-term contract. 

3. With JD Davis, no one has ever questioned his bat or his arm, what is it that holds him back defensively? 

I don’t think its physical, I just think it’s the focus, the attention of details. The speed of the game, you just can’t simulate it and it takes a lot of players a different amount of time to get used to the speed of the game. He was getting grounders hit to him at 3rd, and even the short throw across to second, his focus didn't seem to be there, so he would baby the throw, and when he babied the throw he cut the ball or bounce the ball, or throw wide of his target. 

And when you’re comfortable, that throw is a throw you make in your sleep. You pick it up, get rid of it, and it’s on the money every time. He has a ++ arm, it's not his ability to make plays, its him needing to put the ball where it needs to be, and being right on the time. Not taking too long or getting rid of it too quickly. 

There is a happy medium there that when he's going well, he can be appreciated. And he does put in tireless work. Throughout spring you see little clips of Lindor trying to help him with his footwork and his glovework and helping him get a little more comfortable. 

That also speaks volumes about Lindor's leadership and to J.D., that he's willing to listen, cause this guy [lindor] is a gold glove caliber short-stop that maybe can tell him things that a coach couldn't tell him, that he needs to be shown. 

I think JD Davis learning from that and having this opportunity, this will be a big year for him.

4. Do you think JD Davis will succeed?

I do. I do. He has that in him. He was a clutch hitter, he was one of those guys that you wanted up at the plate with runners in scoring position, he was an RBI machine, especially at home. His home/road splits were staggering. I don’t understand how. 

This is a guy, who was clamoring for an opportunity with Houston, and he wasn't getting an opportunity in that infield. When you get an opportunity with the Mets, the opportunity to play. At first, he was adjusting to the game speed, compounded it with a few errors, A little bit of the yips. Didn't have the formal Yips. 

It wasn't a case of Chuck Knoblauch or Steve Sax. He wasn't throwing the ball into the stands. But it was definitely noticeable the nervousness that he had, when the ball was hit to him. It also helps that Pete Alonso has gotten a LOT better at 1st base. One thing that people miss out on is Alonso that a stat is not kept by everyone, but they have gone through, is scoops. 

Bad throws to first, that might have been error, was scooped up. Pete led MLB in 2019 in scoops. The stat is extremely underrated. David Wright won a gold glove in 2008 and 2009, and when he won that gold glove in 2008, Carlos Delgado joked about splitting the trophy in half because of all the scoops he made for Wright.

5. Who do you think biggest pleasant surprise and why?

I think that has to be one of the pitchers that isn't being counted as of yet. I like what I have seen from Yamamoto, he has tremendous poise. He has been using all his pitchers, His breaking ball, his slider, is very good, that was one of the reasons they went and got him because of that wipeout slider that was either best or 2nd best in all of baseball in Batting Average Against in 2019. 

They figured if they get him to use it a little bit more earlier in counts, that he would have success getting quicker outs. It's worked so far this spring. I also think he is a guy that can be used in a variety of roles. If he's on the roster, Yamamoto is a guy, with his flexibility, his ability to do whatever role is called. 

Those guys are near and dear to my heart -- because i was that guy. I was always clamoring for the opportunity to prove that I belong so I kind of have a soft spot for those guys. 

But if you're looking -- and i don't know if it’s going to be a surprise per se -- Marcus Stroman. Adding a split finger changeup right now, with the stuff he already has, he is dying to do something special in a Mets uniform, and there is a big payday at the end of it. He has better career numbers than Trevor Bauer. 

If you're going to tell me Trevor Bauer is worth 40 million, Stroman is looking for a nice pay day. At the same time, he's been the person that's talked the most about this team since the day he put on a Mets uniform. No matter what the situation was. 

He talks the talk, and he really wants to walk the walk. He wasn't able to do it last year with COVID, I think he's really looking to do some big things and with Carrasco being down right now, he has a lot more on his shoulders. That's the guy I would say I am glad he signed back. I think people will be surprised with how well he's going to do. 

People don't consider him that strong of a strikeout pitcher, now that the Mets defense has been bolstered, where you have a guy like McCann and you have Lindor up the middle, and McNeil getting comfortable with his surroundings, I think it’s going to be a nice year for Marcus Stroman. I think it’s going to be a career year for him. 

6. On the concept of Openers, I think this would apply a lot to Joey Lucchesi?

Early in the season you have to be watching pitch limits anyway. You're not going to be pushing these starters early on. I can definitely see that happening. It’s no longer a taboo or a fad. You’ve seen the Rays and Athletics doing it and being very good at it. It’s a smart thing, depending on your roster construction, if your roster construction is based on having relievers who can be more than 1 inning relievers who can be more than 1 inning relievers. 

You get a guy who can turn the lineup over, it makes it a little bit easier to mix and match the bullpen guys. If  you're doing it as a 5th starter type of deal and you have Jacob deGrom the next day, who you're not worried if he’s going to get out of the first. That's where it plays into their hands, to their benefit. 

There's enough data about the success the Rays have had the last few years doing all the crazy things in baseball, but all they do is win. I think the Mets can do that because they have the roster construction, they have that depth in the starting rotation and with some of the bullpen pieces they have. They really stacked a whole lot of bullpen pieces. 

You have some guys out there that have had a lot of success. For example, [Arodys] Vizcaino - who i know is hurt right now, but he's a ++ arm guy who's closed in the national league east, and that's a guy you definitely would give the ball to if he's healthy. So, I like the idea more so than in the past. A player like Gsellman has struggled in the past doing this, but the guys like the Yamamoto's and the Lucchesi's. 

Drew Smith is another guy, he's been that guy that stuck around [from all the 2017 trades] who's had that plus fastball, he's always had good stuff, the only knock i had on him is his inherited runners. He would come in and he would give up the runners already on base. I think he was allowing 75% of inherited runners to score. So he's kind of been Hansel Robles 2.0. 

If he came in on a clean inning, or if it was after he gave up other guys runs, he would get the 3 outs. ERA can be a very misleading stat when it comes to a reliever, when you take into account the inherited runners factor. 

At one point when i was talking to Hansel Robles earlier in his career, he was 4-0 with a 1.9 ERA, and he's like “I'm throwing very good right?” and I said "you're throwing very well," but what the team is looking at, is that when you come in with runners on base, that player always scores, they don't care that your ERA. 

One time Tyler Clippard had 11 wins in June, and that's because of the situations he was being put into and succeeding, with games tied, holding the lead, and then his team takes the lead. So I had to explain to Robles how the numbers work. He was like “Ohhh.”' So I said to him to  “keep those numbers the same (ERA) but I want to see these numbers improve (inherited runners scoring).” 

7. Do you think Dellin Betances or Jeurys Familia will be major contributors this year?

I don't think the Mets have a choice. Each one of those guys has been a top flight pitcher in MLB before. Familia has saved 50 games; Betances being one of the top set up men in the history of baseball. Both these guys are older in their career and still uber talented. Familia hasn't lost a step -- i think he hit 100 mph the other day. [Familia] has the gift and the curse though. 

He has a 98 mph sinker that disappears and if they don't swing it looks like a strike and called a ball. So he runs into a lot of teams standing there with a bat on their shoulders until they get two strikes and he has to find a way to be able to throw something other than his sinker early in the count, to get into the count. 

Whether that is throwing the slider earlier to get a strike and then go from there. Or using a four-seam fastball which he doesn't seem to have the ability to throw which is mind-boggling. Being able to throw a four-seamer to get ahead, to not walk people. 

He's like an amateur golfer who's always in the sand, who's really good at getting out of the sand, but he's always in the sand. So, he's that guy who gets himself into trouble, but works his way out of it.

With Betances, the question is always velocity with him. The question is will that velocity get back. I'm not necessarily a velocity freak with him. His body, is such that he's a bit odder, tougher to pick up, not something you see everyday. His breaking ball hasn't been as sharp, it hasn't always been there. It hasn't been that wipeout 12-6 or 1-7 slurve type. 

I've seen it flatten out at times to where if he can just put another little click on it, it can be that same effective pitch. He's just been used to have that extra click because he had that 98 mph fastball to match it. So now that his arm speed is a lower slower, he needs to have that release speed, or release point a little bit further out to get that sharper break. But It can still going to be effective because its coming from such a bigger body.  

8. Do you think he's injured, because how often do you don't see a guy losing 8-9 mph over the course of 2-3 years.

At times, he has still hit 94-95 [last year], which is a little bit slower [than his peak]. So he was injured to some extent. Guys, if you start getting this label, you start trying to pitch things. Nowadays this will show up in the data. With trackman, you can see that your arm speed is a little different, you're arm angle is little different, so now we have the technology to see those differences and we can go to the player and ask “are you ok?”

The player can then be honest with himself and with the coaching staff. That's the good part. 

I don't know what it is with him, because he is always this way in spring training. He doesn't dial it up. I've seem him at 91-92, and i've seen him touch 94-95 the other day. I don't know, maybe when the lights on when the adrenaline is pumping how he's going to do.

He can still be an effective reliever. We're not going to be looking at old school Dellin Betances. But if he can convert himself into a 7th inning kind of guy who can be a bridge to get to that back-end, that's where he will be most valuable.

9. Who do you think is the most important bullpen piece

I think it’s the only lefty. Loup. He had a nice year with the Rays, but he wasn't among the top 5 left-handers I want to sign. I don't know if they targeted him, or settled for him. I'd like to see more of him, I want to see if he's going to be able to perform; lefty on lefty they are going to need to count on him a bunch of times in a row to perform. Especially how he'll perform in New York because it’s not the same. 

Especially with the lefties in this division. You have Soto, Freeman, Harper it’s not like you're waking up in the morning and you can think it’s an easy day, you have the best lefty on every team that he has to get out.

10. What have you heard about the top Mets prospects, and who are you highest on?

From what I’ve seen, it looks like they have done a nice job getting Khalil Lee in the trade, where they snuck in and got the third piece (of the Red Sox/Royals trade for Andrew Benitendi), which was one of [the Royals] top prospects as an outfielder. It looks like they have guys in place  where...if you remember when David Wright was third baseman, they never had a third base prospects, but it seems like they have guys in place in case things happen. (referring to Vientos/Baty) 

Mauricio is fantastic. I think that's why you were able to trade two shortstops (Amed Rosario/Andres Gimenez) that are major league ready and you didn't bat an eyelash especially when you get an All-Star. 

Mauricio is my top guy to watch. As he gets a little thicker. He's tall and he hits the ball so well to all fields.

For pitching, the guy they got in the 3rd round, Matt Allan, I want to see more of him. That's the one, if you're playing the video game GM, looking in the draft, getting a diamond in the rough, getting him, he has tremendous upside. When he came to camp he did the right thing. 

Eyes open, mouth shut, hanging around deGrom and learning from him as much as he could. He got to watch what makes him one of the best pitchers on the planet. Duplicating that is really going to be difficult, but coming close to it, that's what you want to be able to do as a young pitcher. Take all the knowledge into the season. 

11. What are your thoughts on Jacob deGrom, his greatness, and do you think he'll ever throw a no hitter?

I think it’s inevitable that he will throw a No Hitter. The fact that a pitcher broke up a no hit bid a few years ago, I'm still mad at. He is a generational type talent. And nobody, no one no one no one, not the scout, would see this coming. Not the Mets, no one in baseball would see this coming. This is basically where the radioactive spider bit him somewhere and gave him super powers. 

This was not a guy that was superhuman on his way up. It was not the Dark Knight meteoric rise. We've literally been watching a shortstop, who becomes a pitcher, has surgery, and then was trying to figure out the mechanics while pitching at the highest level in professional baseball and in that, going through a couple of pitching coaches, and with everyone tinkering with his mechanics, and finding something that works for him. 

Once he found it, when you talk about getting to another level, I don't think there is a planet he can't pitch on. He's that good and it’s amazing to watch. To see someone who can pitch to all four quadrants of the strike zone with 3-4 pitches and never have to give you the same recipe to have success. 

12. Do you think deGrom will be a Hall of Famer?

He's on that path, and it’s going to be interesting, because the qualificaiton to be a Hall of Famer is changing. It used to be Wins, and we'll be lucky if Jacob deGrom gets 200 wins, and that's not his fault. If he continues to pitch the way he has. Look at Kershaw, 

Kershaw is going to be a hall of famer, he has been on good offensive teams, he has the wins to back it up. But Kershaw, despite being the same age, is already feeling the effects of all those innings so soon in his career. deGrom is the complete opposite, he comes into the major leagues in 2014 having already had surgery, with no innings and a brand new arm. 

He wins rookie of the year, is an All Star the next year, they make the World Series, then he has to have surgery again. He has to do the work to throw hard again. 

Relating to velocity, that's what most pitchers do. 98% of pitchers’ care about their velocity. I can't imagine Jake after the game that he looks back and says oh I threw 101, he's thinking I missed that 2-2 slider that I could have avoided the guy getting on base and an error cost us a run. He always takes accountability and that's what I love about him. 

Even if it’s the defenses fault or the team doesn't score any runs. He thinks that if I don't give up this run, we win the game, and he's right. It's so refreshing in an age where you blame everything else but yourself he's constantly looking at the man in the mirror and taking it on that it’s his job not to give up runs. That's why he's won games. He thinks it’s not my job to win the game, it’s my job to not give up runs. That's where his focus is every time out. 

Part 1 of this interview.

Part 2 of this interview.